Member Articles

Goldman Sachs May Continue to Suffer

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We don’t find Goldman to be very attractive trading above its tangible book value when its return on capital barely clears its cost of capital in the 10th year of a bull market. By Matthew Warren Goldman Sachs (GS) reported second-quarter 2019 results July 16, with net revenues down 2% to $9.46 billion and diluted earnings per share down 3% to $5.81, which was well ahead of Wall Street consensus for $5.03. As you can see in the below graphic, the Investing & Lending segment was the star in the quarter with revenue up 16% versus last year. This is because the quarter included approximately $500 million of net gains from investments that went public during the quarter. We would … Read more

In the News: Second-Quarter Earnings Season Begins

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Second-quarter earnings season is upon us. The markets aren’t expecting much growth. Core industrial names may not fare well, but thus far, big pharma is solid. We’re not making any changes to the newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re off to the races with second-quarter earnings season. The markets aren’t expecting much, with the consensus for S&P 500 (SPY) companies to experience a 3% earnings decline, according to FactSet. If this happens, this would mark the first time S&P 500 companies, in aggregate, would have posted year-over-year declines since the first half of 2016. The markets have rallied considerably since then, and despite the strong earnings expansion aided in part by corporate tax cuts, the 12-month forward P/E ratio … Read more

Wells Fargo Showing Damage from Scandals

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Wells might be leaking core deposits as compared to peers and paying up for interest earning deposits. By Matthew Warren Wells Fargo (WFC) reported second-quarter 2019 earnings July 16, with revenue flat at $21.6 billion and diluted EPS of $1.30 as compared to $1.16 Wall Street consensus and $0.98 earned in the same period last year. Cost control improved marginally with noninterest expense down $533 million to $13.4B in the quarter, but at an improved 62.3% (versus 64.9% last year) the bank’s efficiency ratio is still meaningfully worse than peers. Since the beginning of 2018, Wells has reduced 18,000 full time employees via cost cutting efforts, but then had to add back the same amount in … Read more

Johnson & Johnson Revises Sales Guidance Higher Yet Again

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By Callum Turcan Consumer packaged goods and healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), a holding in both our simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, reported second-quarter 2019 earnings July 16 that received mixed reviews from the market. Shares of JNJ initially sold off before recovering later in the trading day. Quarterly Highlights Revenue in the period dropped by a tad over 1% year-over-year to $20.6 billion on a GAAP basis, but adjusted operational sales (which exclude foreign currency movements, a headwind to Johnson & Johnson’s second quarter performance, and the net impact of A&D activity) rose by almost 4%. There’s underlying demand growth for Johnson & Johnson’s products, but as with all American companies with significant overseas … Read more

J.P. Morgan’s Net Interest Margins to Come Under Pressure

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Image Source: Trending Topics 2019 By Matthew Warren JPMorgan (JPM) reported second-quarter results July 16, with revenue up 4% to 29.6 billion and net income of $2.82 per share ($2.59 excluding a one-time income tax benefit of 23 cents) compared to Wall Street estimates of $2.49 per share. Average total loans were up 2% year over year while deposits grew a healthy 4% on the same basis. Even after distributing $7.5 billion to shareholders in the quarter via dividends and share buybacks, the bank remains extremely well capitalized with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.2%. Despite this robust level of capital, the bank posted a return on tangible common equity of 20% in the quarter, or 18% after … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Sporting Goods Industry

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Image Source: Pool Corp. Structure of the Sporting Goods Industry The seasonal sporting goods industry is heavily tied to sporting trends and relies on large athletic partners to distribute their athletic goods and apparel. Exclusive licenses can help certain firms achieve competitive advantages, and while scale helps, small companies have been able to carve out favorable niches. Unlike other apparel industries, we have yet to see tremendous online competition emerge. Potential firearm regulation could negatively impact sales, but most companies are well diversified. We’re neutral on the space, but continued consolidation could ultimately benefit industrywide pricing and margins. We’ve dropped coverage of reports on stocks in the Sporting Goods industry: CLAR, ELY, JOUT, NLS, POOL.

Citigroup Still Has A Lot to Prove

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  Image Source: Citigroup Quarterly Presentation  By Matthew Warren On July 15, Citigroup (C) reported Q2’19 revenues up 2% year over year to $18.8 billion and adjusted earnings (excluding a gain on its investment in Tradeweb) of $1.83, or 3 cents better than consensus estimates. Expenses in the quarter were down 2%, yielding the 11th consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage and improving efficiency ratios, which currently stands at 56% in the quarter. This has helped boost return on tangible common equity (RoTCE) to 11.9% in the quarter and the first half of the year, quite close to management’s commitment of 12% for the full year. Management has also stated a goal of reaching 13.5% for the same metric for … Read more

Herbalife Sees a Slow Recovery Ahead

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Image Source: Herbalife Nutrition Limited – 2018 10-K By Callum Turcan Many of you may remember Herbalife Nutrition (HLF) from the “epic” duel between two very well-known titans in the financial world, Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman, which was held on CNBC in January 2013. The argument at the time fundamentally rested on whether multi-level marketing companies were viable commercial entities or pyramid schemes set to crumble on themselves, with Mr. Icahn backing Herbalife while Mr. Ackman took the other side of that trade. Herbalife is a multi-level marketing company that uses the direct selling business model to market and sell nutritional products to consumers all over the globe with a focus on energy, fitness, and sports. The company’s Formula … Read more

Reviewing PepsiCo’s Latest Earnings

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Image Source: PepsiCo Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Maker of snacks and sugary beverages, PepsiCo Inc (PEP) posted second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2019 on July 9 that were positively received by the market. PepsiCo reaffirmed 2019 guidance calling for 4% annual organic revenue growth, a 1% decline in core constant EPS (3% decline when including an expected 200 basis point headwind from foreign currency movements) versus 2018 levels, and ~$4.5 billion in free cash flow generation. Shares of PEP yield 2.9% as of this writing and we like PepsiCo’s dividend coverage. However, please note that the company expects to spend $5.0 billion on dividends and $3.0 billion on share buybacks this year. Forecasted free cash flows will only … Read more

Broadcom Might Buy Symantec: Why Enterprise Valuation Matters

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Image Source: Symantec Corporation – Fall 2018 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Reportedly, semiconductor Broadcom Inc (AVGO) is getting close to acquiring Symantec Corporation (SYMC) in a deal that could be worth ~$22.0 billion when including debt. Symantec offers cybersecurity services to more than 350,000 organizations and 50 million individuals around the world, and would mark Broadcom’s second big foray into the software space after acquiring CA Technologies for $18.9 billion in cash last year. We would like to take this time to highlight the value of using enterprise cash flow analysis, particularly as it relates to the see-saw trading action in shares of Symantec, and why Broadcom has reportedly shown such interest in acquiring the company.  Image Shown: Symantec … Read more