Member Articles

Economic Roundtable: “Value” Versus “Growth” Rotation

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Tickerized for the DIA. “This kind of trading activity could be setting the stage for a big quant fund blow up, if the kind of leverage it takes to move the markets to this magnitude was applied. All it may take is for the B/M “value” factor to continue to suffer in the coming 12-18 months–it’s possible we could see a few quant firms go belly up. My guess is that market participants are paying very close attention to this activity, and if they “smell blood,” things could get ugly.” – Brian Nelson, CFA Earlier this week, the markets experienced significant internal “rotation,” as cyclicals and “value” stocks materially outperformed their defensive and “growth” counterparts, all the while the broader … Read more

Why We Like BIN Holding Visa So Much

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Image Source: Visa Inc – 2018 Annual Report By Callum Turcan One of our favorite holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is Visa (V), which has been included in the portfolio since November 2011 (see BIN transaction log here). Visa’s growth story is straightforward. The company is a secular growth play on the emergence of a global cashless society, one that is increasingly relying on debit and credit cards for most transactions. We think there’s still an enormous amount of room left to go on this front, especially in emerging and developing markets. We assign Visa a fair value estimate of $182/share (updated in the middle of August) and the top end of our fair value estimate range sits … Read more

Apple Makes Its Big Push Into Services

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Image Shown: Apple announced that Apple TV+ would launch November 1, 2019, during its big update event on September 10. This marks the beginning of Apple’s transition from a hardware and software company to a hardware, software, and services giant. By Callum Turcan On September 10, Apple Inc (AAPL) held its big hardware and software event but the real star of the show was services. Namely, Apple TV+ which will launch this upcoming November 1 at the relatively low price of just $4.99 per month. That’s below the starting price point offered by Apple’s (future) video streaming competitors including Netflix (NFLX), Walt Disney Company (DIS), and others. Apple is coming out swinging with star studded launches of its own exclusive … Read more

Consider This Blue Chip High Yield Dividend Play

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Image Shown: Shares of AT&T moved higher on September 9 after hedge fund manager Elliott Management, run by multibillionaire activist investor Paul Singer, disclosed a $3.2 billion stake in the firm. The hedge fund has big plans for AT&T and is pushing for changes at the telecommunications, media, and entertainment company. By Callum Turcan High Yield Dividend Newsletter holding AT&T (T) was back in the news this Monday (September 9) as activist investor Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Management, announced that the hedge fund manager had acquired a $3.2 billion stake in the company. Through a four-point plan, dubbed “the Activating AT&T Plan” according to the letter Elliott Management sent AT&T pushing for change, Elliot Management thinks shares of T … Read more

DGN Holding Realty Income Continues Moving Higher

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Image Shown: Shares of Realty Income Corporation (O) have been on an upward tear this year as excitement over a lower interest rate environment, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, is driving up interest in real estate investment trusts. By Callum Turcan A holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, Realty Income Corporation (O) invests in single-tenant properties both domestically and now abroad after expanding overseas for the first time earlier this year. The REIT pays out a monthly dividend and has done so for 590 consecutive months (as of early-September 2019), pushing through 102 payout increases since going public in 1994. Shares of the REIT yield 3.6% as of this writing. We like Realty Income’s “A” rated credit ratings (A3/A-), … Read more

Shares of DGN Holding Digital Realty Climbing Upwards

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Image Source: Digital Realty Trust Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan One of our favorite holdings in the Dividend Growth Newsletter is Digital Realty Trust (DLR), a data center REIT whose shares yield 3.4% as of this writing. Digital Realty expects to generate $6.60-$6.70 per share in core FFO this year, up 5% at the midpoint when excluding a new lease accounting standard and foreign currency headwinds. Please note that due to those two factors and pressure from rental renewals (DLR had a lot of leases expire in 2019 and some of the new leases were signed at modestly lower rates), Digital Realty’s reported core FFO ($6.65/share at the midpoint of guidance) in 2019 will only grow marginally from … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 6

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 6. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Trust (FINS): now $0.1181 per share monthly dividend, was $0.1171. Brady (BRC): now $0.2175 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2125. DMC Global (BOOM): now $0.125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.02. Eaton Vance Floating Rate Income Trust (EFT): now $0.0770 per share monthly dividend, was $0.0760. Eaton Vance Senior Floating-Rate Fund (EFR): now $0.0770 per share monthly dividend, was $0.0760. Eaton … Read more

The Valuentum Strategy in Action: Why We Are Letting BIN Holding Dollar General Run Higher

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Image Shown: Best Ideas Newsletter holding Dollar General Corporation (DG) jumped up after posting great performance during the second quarter of its fiscal 2019 on August 29. The company has trounced the market return since it was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter in April 2017. We are letting this winner run higher. By Callum Turcan On August 29, our favorite discount retailer Dollar General (DG) posted second quarter FY2019 earnings (ended August 2) that saw shares of this Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding fly higher after the report. GAAP net sales rose by 8.4% year-over-year and same-store sales were up 4.0% during the quarter, which we strongly appreciate, as Dollar General continues to showcase why flexibility and convenience are … Read more

A Tale of Two Package Delivery Companies

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Image Shown: Shares of both FedEx Corporation (FDX) (indicated by the orange line above) and United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) (indicated by the blue line above) have come under a tremendous amount of pressure over the past year as the industry navigates the fallout from the US-China trade war. Both companies are investing heavily to improve their offerings to stay ahead of the game as large tech companies increasingly encroach on the shipping industry’s traditional turf. The S&P 500 index is indicted by the purple line above. By Callum Turcan The past year has not been kind to the air freight and logistics industry. The price of shares of FedEx Corp (FDX) have fallen by more than a third during … Read more

Triple-A Rated J&J’s Opioid Liabilities Likely More Than Priced In

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  Image Source: J&J Shares of J&J have settled into the high-$120s at the time of this writing, well below our ~$150 fair value estimate. We’re going to stick with J&J in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio at this time. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA On August 26, an Oklahoma judge ruled that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) had to pay $572 million to the state over its role in the opioid crisis in America. In particular, District Judge Thad Balkman noted that “Johnson & Johnson’s misleading marketing and promotion of opioids created a nuisance” that compromised the health of thousands in Oklahoma. Johnson & Johnson and its Janssen subsidiary will contest the … Read more