Brian Nelson

Pfizer’s and Merck’s 3Q Performance

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Whereas revenue advanced in Bristol-Myers’ (BMY), Eli Lilly’s (LLY), and AbbVie’s (ABBV) respective calendar third-quarter results, the same cannot be said about the performance of Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK) during the equivalent period. Pfizer’s third-quarter report, released Tuesday, showed that net revenue dropped 2% as strength in its smallest segment, ‘Oncology’, failed to offset weakness at the rest of the firm. Pfizer continues to deal with the impact of product losses of exclusivity (Lipitor) and the expiration of its Spiriva collaboration in certain countries, which overwhelmed growth in its blockbuster Lyrica (up 11%), Celebrex (up 13%), Inlyta (up 186%), and Xalkori (up 92%). Sales of Pristiq advanced 15%. Emerging market expansion tallied 5% in the period. The US basis … Read more

American Capital Agency Disappoints Again; Armour Residential Follows

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We’re still getting praises from our call on the mREIT industry that shocked the investment world and literally put our research firm on the map (click here for that). We outlined how other research firms were so wrong in this piece (link), and interestingly, we’re adding BAML today to the list of investment shops that led their advisor communities astray. Frankly, we’re honored to serve you, and we’re proud to have delivered on the correct research perspective. We’re not here to point out the pitfalls of others, but by pointing out this well-documented example, our goal is to continue to build your trust in us as a firm. Let’s take a look at the ongoing troubles the mREIT industry continues … Read more

Industrial and Consumer Packaging Drive Results at International Paper

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On Thursday morning, International Paper (IP) posted record third quarter operating earnings driven by solid margin expansion. Revenue increased 5% year-over-year to $7.4 billion, slightly below consensus expectations. Operating earnings per share of $1.05 per share were in-line with consensus estimates and 30% higher than the year ago period. Year-to-date, free cash flow stands at $1.2 billion, down slightly compared to the same period a year ago, but still equal to 5.6% of total revenue. Robust Industrial Packaging Image Source: IP 3Q13 Slides North American Industrial Packaging was a standout performer for International Paper during the third quarter. As shown in the above chart, the segment’s EBITDA margins easily eclipse peers and increased 510 basis points year-over-year to 24.4%. Although wood … Read more

Homebuilders Report Nice 3Q; We’re Not Putting New Money to Work in Them

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We’ve seen the recent hike in interest rates put a moderate dent in the upward trajectory of performance at Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) in their respective third quarters. This was also the case in PulteGroup’s (PHM) and M/I Homes’ (MHO) third quarter performance, which we will outline in this piece. However, recent trends in the average 30-year fixed rate, which hit a four-month low last week, may make fourth-quarter performance a bit better for the group than originally anticipated. Still, we’re not putting new money to work in the industry at this time on the basis of valuation. PulteGroup On Thursday, PulteGroup reported decent third-quarter results that showed strong revenue, growth, home selling-price expansion, and solid margin performance. … Read more

Microsoft Sets Six-Year Price High; You Knew It Was Going to Happen

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Microsoft (MSFT) continues to be a no-brainer. The firm has robust free cash flow, a rock-solid balance sheet, and significant revenue and earnings growth potential. As we continued to pound the table on shares for much of the past two years—the company is one of the LARGEST weightings in the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter—others said Microsoft was “dead money” and would continue to be. The firm’s share price hit a six-year high Friday. Thursday after the close, the software giant exceeded top- and bottom-line expectations in its fiscal first quarter by a significant margin. Revenue jumped 15.8%, while diluted earnings per share leapt nearly 17%. These are staggering growth figures for a firm that is supposed to be … Read more

Surveying 3Q Performance from Big Pharma: Bristol-Myers, Eli Lilly, and AbbVie

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Bristol-Myers On Wednesday, Bristol-Myers (BMY) showcased the strength of its key marketed products in its third-quarter report. The firm experienced a 9% increase in net sales and a 12% jump in non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. Bristol-Myers also confirmed its 2013 non-GAAP earnings per share range of $1.70 to $1.78 per share. Looking at its current marketed portfolio, Abilify, its largest revenue generator, faced a 16% decline, though this was offset by strength in Yervoy, which grew 33%, Orencia, which grew 22%, and Sprycel, which grew 20%. Yervoy doesn’t lose exclusivity in key markets until after 2020 (2023 in the US), Orencia loses exclusivity in Japan, the EU, and the US between years 2017 and 2019, and Sprycel doesn’t lose … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending October 25

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending October 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports, please click here (or use our ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header). Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Midstream Partners, LP (AMID): now $0.4525 per share declares quarterly distribution, was $0.4325. Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.08. Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.315. Cape Bancorp (CBNJ): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Cintas Corporation (CTAS): now $0.77 per share annual dividend, was $0.64. Columbia Banking System … Read more

Surveying a Few Consumer Staples: Hershey, Colgate-Palmolive, and Unilever

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<< Definition of ‘Consumer Staples’ Hershey (HSY) “We (Hershey) expect 2014 net sales growth to be within our 5 to 7 percent long-term target, including the impact of foreign currency exchange rates. As has been the case for many years, Hershey is a gross margin focused company. We have solid productivity and cost savings initiatives in place and, while early in the planning cycle, we expect adjusted gross margin expansion next year that will drive 2014 growth in adjusted earnings per share-diluted in the 9 to 11 percent range, in line with our revised long-term target.” 3Q13 press release Colgate-Palmolive (CL) “As we (Colgate-Palmolive) look ahead to 2014, while our global budget process is in its initial stages, based on … Read more

The Tale of Three Valuentum Buying Index Ratings of 9

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Just like a sell-side analyst isn’t required to reiterate his or her buy/sell/hold recommendations every day (despite immaterial week-to-week pricing changes), we don’t reiterate our Valuentum Buying Index ratings every day either. However, as with sell-side recommendations, our Valuentum Buying Index ratings still represent our current opinion. It should be assumed that, if a firm’s report (one that’s dated September 2013, for example) states that the firm’s VBI rating is a 9, the company’s current VBI rating is a 9. Just like in the case of when a sell-side analyst issues a ‘Buy’ recommendation in September 2013, the sell-side analyst would still have a ‘Buy’ recommendation on the stock today (until the recommendation is changed). This dynamic is the only way that our system is … Read more

Green Letter Day for Industrial Best Ideas Portfolio Holdings; Record Results for Ford and Precision Castparts

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I guess you can say a ‘Red Letter Day’ for our Best Ideas portfolio can be more appropriately called a ‘Green Letter Day,’ as stock-market advances are typically colored in green. Today is such a day for two holdings in our Best Ideas portfolio: Ford (F) and Precision Castparts (PCP). These are two companies that we have pounded the table on repeatedly during the past couple years. Ford Posts Record 3Q Pre-Tax Profit On Thursday, Ford (F) posted excellent third-quarter results that showed fantastic top and bottom-line performance. Total company revenue advanced an impressive 12% thanks to wholesale volume expansion of 16% and year-over-year share gains in all regions. The auto maker also posted record third-quarter pre-tax profit of $2.59 … Read more