Brian Nelson

Best Ideas Newsletter Excerpt: A+ for Altria and Apple

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Just as I’m writing the intro to this edition of the September edition of the Best Ideas portfolio, the good news keeps coming. If you’ve read anything about our top holdings, you’d be hard-pressed to miss a discussion on Altria (MO) and our thesis that goes into the tobacco firm’s 27% economic stake in fast-growing global brewer SABMiller (SBMRY) as support for not only its dividend growth but also its valuation. The news wires are buzzing that SABMiller approached Heineken (HEINY) for a tie-up, and that Heineken rejected its offer. However, there are now talks that Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) is looking to put together a bid for SABMiller, and shares of the latter are soaring on … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 12

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending September 12. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Armanino Foods (AMNF): now $0.018 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.016. Associated Estates Realty (AEC): $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Brady (BRC): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.195. Frisch’s Restaurants (FRS): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. International Paper (IP): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.35. Philip Morris (PM): now $1.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.94. Realty Income … Read more

Beware of Groupthink: American Capital, Annaly and now Seadrill

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“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” – Mark Twain The investment research publishing business is a brutal one, and we know you know it. The very best of calls are the ones that go against the crowd and provide such a unique and fresh insight that readers have a difficult time grasping such a variant viewpoint. Once the call is published, the peanut gallery goes to work…and boy do they go to work. Biased and mostly uninformed commenters with stakes in the game do everything they can to try to discredit the author, from personal insults on the message boards to focusing on a minute part of the research … Read more

Apple Conference Better Than Expected

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It is sometimes with hesitation that we talk about Apple (AAPL) because it is one of the most widely covered stocks. We often try to highlight hidden gems across our coverage universe, but when things are going well…well…things are going well. The iPhone maker has been one of the best performers in the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio, and the new products at the September 9 event speak to continued sustainability of strong fundamentals. View event replay here >> The biggest surprise at the event, in our view, was the release of both Apple’s first wearable device (called Apple Watch) and its first payments solution (called Pay). “The Apple Watch is available in two different sizes and comes … Read more

Is Predicting Stock Prices Easy? 100% of Economists Say “No Way!”

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By Brian Nelson, CFA “Don’t get frustrated if one or two of your ideas don’t work out. This is to be expected in a portfolio of stocks. You’re investing to achieve your goals. It is only human and natural to be wrong sometimes.” The University of Chicago’s Initiative on Global Markets frequently puts out a survey from a variety of different standpoints on relevant issues of the day. Though the write-up from the World Economic Forum goes into countering “the general perception that economists rarely agree on anything,” we were quite interested in one particular dynamic: 100% of economists think predicting stock prices is difficult, while 45% of the public thinks predicting stock prices is not difficult (presumably easy). The … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending September 5

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 5. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Altisource Residential (RESI): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.45. Atrion (ATRI): now $0.75 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.64. Avago Tech (AVGO): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. Eastgroup Properties (EGP): now $0.57 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.54. Silver Bay Realty Trust (SBY): now $0.04 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.03. Verizon (VZ): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.53.  >>Last week’s … Read more

Apple Hacked! Not Alone.

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By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s difficult to be a business these days. Not only do you have to provide a service that customers are willing to pay for, but your customers have to have the means to pay for it. But more and more, we are seeing that businesses have more obstacles to overcome, and I’m not just talking about increased regulations. I’m talking about hackers, and their work is becoming more and more prevalent. Target (TGT) continues to be distracted from its credit data breach, while eBay (EBAY) recently reported a cyber attack, though of the less-serious variety. This week, reports indicate that Home Depot (HD) has been the target of a massive credit card data breach. Though admitting … Read more

Performance Update: The Valuentum Buying Index

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Note: A more recent analysis of the Valuentum Buying Index rating system can be accessed at the following link: /Value_and_Momentum_Within_Stocks_Too A version of this article was published October 26, 2013. By Brian Nelson, CFA We periodically update the performance results of the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), the stock-selection methodology that drives idea-generation within the Best Ideas portfolio. The academic studies of the Valuentum Buying Index can be accessed here (white paper) and here (AAII). The latest iteration of the performance, dated September 3, 2014, continues to showcase the strong sorting mechanism embedded within the investing framework, particularly when the index is coupled with qualitative oversight and portfolio management skill. Sorting winners from losers is what the Valuentum Buying Index has been designed to … Read more