Brian Nelson

Valuentum Update: Four Important Topics

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“You all are truly the best. I really mean that. You should know that I read every email I receive, and I truly value our relationship with each and every one of you!” – President Brian Nelson, CFA It is with great pleasure that I am writing this note to you. In it, I’d like to cover four topics. First, we continue to grow and grow and grow! We reached another new milestone this quarter with respect to subscriber count. Both the Valuentum Best Ideas portfolio and Valuentum Dividend Growth portfolio are performing well, and the Valuentum Buying Index continues to identify outperformers, the most recent example was the flawless execution of previously 10-rated Baidu (BIDU). For those following the … Read more

Financial Analysis 501: How to Identify Managed Earnings

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A version of this article appeared on our website October, 23, 2013. This article is for educational purposes only and may not reflect our updated opinion on any companies mentioned. Please access the updated research for any firm of interest. Update (9/17/2014): On July 23, 2014, “Morningstar reported adjusted operating income of $36.2 million in the second quarter of 2014, a decrease of 16.9% compared with the second quarter of 2013. Adjusted operating income declined mainly because of higher compensation expense from additional headcount, reflecting new hires as well as acquisitions. Adjusted operating income is also a non-GAAP measure.” We think the analysis below helped identify the inflection point in operating performance. Part of the reason why I have picked Morningstar (MORN) … Read more

Microsoft Just Hiked Its Dividend 11%!

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After the market closed Tuesday, the top holding in the Dividend Growth portfolio Microsoft (MSFT) raised its dividend 11%, to $0.31 per share on a quarterly basis. Though we try to be as modest as possible, we think it’s not an exaggeration to say that ‘we hit the ball out of the park’ with the call on Microsoft — not only in making the controversial decision to add it to the Dividend Growth portfolio (when the consensus was convinced it was ‘dead money’) but also in retaining the stock as the portfolio’s largest weighting for the past several months. Microsoft was added to the Dividend Growth portfolio at $25.96 per share at the beginning of 2012, and shares closed yesterday … Read more

Best Ideas Newsletter Excerpt: A+ for Altria and Apple

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Just as I’m writing the intro to this edition of the September edition of the Best Ideas portfolio, the good news keeps coming. If you’ve read anything about our top holdings, you’d be hard-pressed to miss a discussion on Altria (MO) and our thesis that goes into the tobacco firm’s 27% economic stake in fast-growing global brewer SABMiller (SBMRY) as support for not only its dividend growth but also its valuation. The news wires are buzzing that SABMiller approached Heineken (HEINY) for a tie-up, and that Heineken rejected its offer. However, there are now talks that Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) is looking to put together a bid for SABMiller, and shares of the latter are soaring on … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 12

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending September 12. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Armanino Foods (AMNF): now $0.018 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.016. Associated Estates Realty (AEC): $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Brady (BRC): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.195. Frisch’s Restaurants (FRS): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. International Paper (IP): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.35. Philip Morris (PM): now $1.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.94. Realty Income … Read more

Beware of Groupthink: American Capital, Annaly and now Seadrill

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“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” – Mark Twain The investment research publishing business is a brutal one, and we know you know it. The very best of calls are the ones that go against the crowd and provide such a unique and fresh insight that readers have a difficult time grasping such a variant viewpoint. Once the call is published, the peanut gallery goes to work…and boy do they go to work. Biased and mostly uninformed commenters with stakes in the game do everything they can to try to discredit the author, from personal insults on the message boards to focusing on a minute part of the research … Read more

Apple Conference Better Than Expected

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It is sometimes with hesitation that we talk about Apple (AAPL) because it is one of the most widely covered stocks. We often try to highlight hidden gems across our coverage universe, but when things are going well…well…things are going well. The iPhone maker has been one of the best performers in the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio, and the new products at the September 9 event speak to continued sustainability of strong fundamentals. View event replay here >> The biggest surprise at the event, in our view, was the release of both Apple’s first wearable device (called Apple Watch) and its first payments solution (called Pay). “The Apple Watch is available in two different sizes and comes … Read more

Is Predicting Stock Prices Easy? 100% of Economists Say “No Way!”

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By Brian Nelson, CFA “Don’t get frustrated if one or two of your ideas don’t work out. This is to be expected in a portfolio of stocks. You’re investing to achieve your goals. It is only human and natural to be wrong sometimes.” The University of Chicago’s Initiative on Global Markets frequently puts out a survey from a variety of different standpoints on relevant issues of the day. Though the write-up from the World Economic Forum goes into countering “the general perception that economists rarely agree on anything,” we were quite interested in one particular dynamic: 100% of economists think predicting stock prices is difficult, while 45% of the public thinks predicting stock prices is not difficult (presumably easy). The … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending September 5

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 5. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Altisource Residential (RESI): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.45. Atrion (ATRI): now $0.75 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.64. Avago Tech (AVGO): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. Eastgroup Properties (EGP): now $0.57 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.54. Silver Bay Realty Trust (SBY): now $0.04 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.03. Verizon (VZ): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.53.  >>Last week’s … Read more