Brian Nelson

Recent Illustration of Philosophy in Oil Equities

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Those that apply the Valuentum framework are less likely to be involved in value or income traps because, among other variables, they demand material revenue and earnings growth for firms to earn a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index. Value and income traps often occur as a result of secular declines in a firm’s products or services, resulting in deteriorating revenue and earnings trends (and a falling stock price). Value and income traps can also result from abrupt cyclical shocks that cause vast shifts in a company’s future free cash flows, or that which happened to firms such as Seadrill (SDRL) and Linn Energy (LINE). Users of the Valuentum approach are less likely to be exposed to these “falling knives” … Read more

RadioShack Files, Blackberry Flies Then Denies

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The end is nigh for RadioShack (RSH). After years and years on its path toward obsolescence, RadioShack may be finally throwing in the towel. The Wall Street Journal reported January 14 that the electronic gadget store that shares its name with the technology of yesteryear is prepping for a bankruptcy filing as early as February. The penny stock once traded north of $20 as recently as a few years ago, and forever, Radio Shack will be an excellent example of why share buybacks aren’t always a good thing. Should RadioShack sign the bottom line sealing its fate, there are a few things that could happen with the equity. The first is obvious. RadioShack’s equity will be cancelled at the end … Read more

BHP or Rio Tinto? Is That the Right Question?

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Dr. Copper is speaking, and we don’t like what he’s saying. For those long-tenured market participants, a look at the copper markets (JJC, CPER, CUPM) generally provides insight into the health of the global economy. Copper is used in just about everything related to construction and manufacturing, and the price of the metal signals the relationship between its supply and demand. A strong copper price, therefore, indicates that demand for the metal is healthy, and that in most cases and by extension, the general economy is healthy as well. What we are witnessing in the copper markets, however, is something else, and on a high level, no different than the shellacking the crude oil markets have been experiencing in recent … Read more

Alcoa Kicks Off Fourth Quarter Earnings Season

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Would we ever considering owning Alcoa (AA) near a cyclical peak in economic demand, roughly 5-7 years into one of the strongest stock-market recoveries in history, or said differently, in the current environment? The short answer is: No. Market veterans know that the time to consider buying Alcoa is at a cyclical trough, not at peaks, and only then if there is no tangible risk of default. Alcoa may not be as much of an economic bellwether as it once was when the US was a much larger manufacturer of goods, but the aluminum giant is still relevant in assessing underlying demand trends in various end markets across the globe. The lightweight metal producer finds its way into just about … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending January 9

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 9. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week ADT (ADT): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT): now $2.69 per share quarterly dividend, was $2.03. DDR (DDR): now $0.1725 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.155. Ford (F): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.125. Nordic American Tankers (NAT): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. Plains All American Pipeline (PAA): now $0.675 per share quarterly … Read more

Reiterating Our $100 Per Share Valuation of Facebook

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Summary: We think Facebook has just scratched the surface of its earnings potential. Let’s address the potential for a single stock bubble in Facebook, the company’s most recent results, and why we think it garners a very attractive Economic Castle rating. We value shares of Facebook at $100 each, implying roughly 25% upside based on the firm’s most recent closing price. ———- “Intrinsic value represents the conclusion to any and all stock research: What is the company worth? DCF valuation captures the expectations of a firm’s competitive advantages, growth prospects, strategic endeavors, and any other qualitative factor. No other process does this. Putting to numbers a plethora of advanced fundamental items in arriving at a fair value estimate is the … Read more

4 Opportunistic Stocks To Consider Buying in 2015

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The Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) is a philosophy that considers the valuation of a company and the likelihood that a company’s stock will converge to a cash-flow derived fair value estimate. The VBI accepts the view that value is based on the sum of a company’s future expected discounted free cash flows and the excess cash on its balance sheet, while acknowledging that market participants must eventually agree with a firm’s underpricing (and buy the stock) in order to drive the stock’s price to fair value. An underpriced stock with no buying support is not poised to generate good returns, nor is an overpriced stock with good momentum as it will eventually succumb to panic selling once euphoria fades. Stocks … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Two Weeks Ending January 2

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the two weeks ending January 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alamo (ALG): now $0.08 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.07. Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): now $0.13 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.125. FelCor (FCH): now $0.04 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.02. Investar Holding (ISTR): now $0.007 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.006. Teekay LNG (TGP): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.69. TerraForm (TERP): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.225. … Read more

Fantasy Yields Are For Fools

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Brian Nelson, CFA We spend a lot of time talking about the safety of a firm’s dividend. In fact, we were the pioneers of the Dividend Cushion ratio, a comprehensive cash-flow based measure of the health of a firm’s dividend that takes into consideration all aspects of the company’s financial statements – not just the relationship between dividends per share and earnings per share, the payout ratio. As readers have come to learn, if a company’s Dividend Cushion ratio is below 0, there is significant risk to the sustainability of the payout. Most recently, the Dividend Cushion ratio highlighted the substantial risk related to Seadrill’s (SDRL) payout (in advance of the suspension), and the Cushion, as we call it here … Read more

See Valuentum’s Brian Nelson January 17th in Milwaukee

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The AAII Milwaukee Chapter will present: “The Twenty-Fifth Annual Mid-Winter Retreat” The Twenty-Fifth Annual MidWinter Retreat promises to be an exceptional event. This popular meeting is an all-day Saturday event featuring several in-depth seminars on various investment topics, the opportunity to socialize with fellow members and the great food and atmosphere of the Westmoor Country club. Date: Saturday, January 17, 2015 Time: 7:15 – 7:55 a.m.    Registration/Continental Breakfast 7:55 a.m.    Program Location: Westmoor Country Club400 S Moorland RdBrookfield, WI262-796-7800 Dividend Growth Investing: 8:00 a.m.–9:00 a.m. Brian Nelson will discuss how to analyze and identify companies that offer the best dividend growth opportunities. He will discuss the importance of dividends to total return and how to identify companies whose dividend payments might be … Read more