Brian Nelson

Cisco’s Momentum and Shareholder Friendliness Continue

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Image Source: Ecole polytechnique Networking giant is executing effectively in its ongoing shift to an emphasis on software subscription revenue, and deft execution appears to be helping insulate it from macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Shares are trading in the lower half of our fair value range and offer solid income generation potential. By Kris Rosemann Simulated newsletter portfolio idea Cisco (CSCO) continues to execute on its transformation to a greater focus on software subscription revenue, and management noted another quarter of demand that was not impacted materially by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. The company conveyed a sense of confidence in its ability to continue delivering a growing stream of free cash flow via its announcement of a 6% increase in … Read more

In The News: European Growth Concerns, Continued Weakness in Generic Pharma, Johnson & Johnson Enters Robotics Market

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Let’s take a look at some of the top stories from February 13. Concerns over industrial production in Europe may present challenges to economic growth, generic pharma companies face material competition, and Johnson & Johnson gets into the robotics market. By Kris Rosemann Equities continue to benefit from optimism surrounding US-China trade talks, as President Trump recently stated a willingness to let the March 2 trade conflict resolution deadline slide, but industrial production in Europe, which fell at the greatest sequential rate since 2009 in December 2018, has caught the eye of many a market observer. Demand softness from China (FXI) is playing a role, and the usual suspects such as Greece, Italy (EWI), and uncertainty over Brexit (EWU) continue … Read more

Our Data Sheet on the Residential / Mortgage REITs

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Image Source: Jeff Djevdet Structure of the Residential/Mortgage REIT Industry The residential REIT industry consists of REITs that own and manage housing, multi-family and apartment communities as well as mortgage REITs that invest in agency securities in which the principal and interest payments may be guaranteed by the government. The industry has been materially impacted by recent changes in the lending landscape, defaults, credit losses, and significant liquidity concerns during the recent global financial crisis. The firms in this industry generally are not subject to federal taxes on their taxable income to the extent that they annually distribute all of their taxable income to stockholders. As a result of this business structure, many firms have elevated distribution yields, but almost … Read more

MLPs Starting to Adopt Free Cash Flow?

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Image shown: Since mid-June 2015, the price of an ETF tracking the midstream MLP energy space (AMLP) has fallen more than 40% while the S&P 500 (SPY) has rallied more than 30%. No changes to simulated newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone! Hope you are having a nice start to the week. I have some great news for investors. In my lengthy piece from last Tuesday, which can read here, I talked about how master limited partnerships (MLPs) may be starting to embrace the very important metric free cash flow. If you remember, free cash flow is generally calculated as cash flow from operations less allcapital spending.  On the other hand, distributable cash flow, or the most widely-disseminated metric across midstream equities, generally excludes growth capital … Read more

Video Game Industry Adapting to Consumers and Technology

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Image Source: steamXO Adapting to consumer consumption trends is a necessity for video game makers, and rapidly improving technology standards are impacting the industry as producers work to deliver high-quality entertainment effectively. Long-term demand trends are generally bright, but continual innovation and adaptation will be necessary. By Kris Rosemann Key Takeaways Video game companies compete with all forms of entertainment for discretionary spending, and competition has never been greater. Business models aimed at driving recurring revenue have disappointed with respect to their ability to reduce lumpy financial performance. Evolving delivery methods cannot reduce the hit-based nature of the industry. We’re not interested in adding exposure to the space, but operators within it do have some attractive qualities, not the least … Read more

Ralph Lauren and Tapestry Revise Guidance in Opposite Directions

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Luxury goods companies Ralph Lauren and Tapestry saw their respective shares moving in opposite directions following their calendar fourth quarter earnings releases as both issued guidance revisions. Ralph Lauren appears to be executing well, while Tapestry can’t avoid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. By Kris Rosemann Ralph Lauren Raises Fiscal 2019 Guidance as Gross Margin Expands Shares of premium lifestyle product designer Ralph Lauren (RL) jumped following the release of its fiscal 2019 third quarter results February 5, as it turned in revenue growth of 5% on a year-over-year basis. Revenue in North America advanced 3% from the year-ago period, while revenue in Europe and Asia rose by 10% in each region, including 19% growth in Greater China in constant currency. … Read more

Industrials Sector Ideas — Examining the Fair Value Distribution

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Let’s have a look at some recent reports from a few of our favorite businesses in the industrials sector: Danaher, Dover, Eaton, Emerson, Illinois Tool Works, Ingersoll-Rand, Lennox, Parker-Hannifin, and Roper. [Red X denotes the company’s share price, as of the time of this writing, on the fair value distribution chart. We view shares as undervalued if the Red X is in the green, fairly valued if the Red X is in the yellow, and overvalued if the Red X is in the red. The images found below can be found on page 6 of each company’s 16-page stock report.] By Brian Nelson, CFA Danaher’s Business System Is a Key Cultural Asset On January 29, Danaher (DHR) released fourth-quarter 2018 results that came … Read more

Earnings Roundup: Fast Food and Coffee

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Image Source: Phillip Pessar Let’s take a look at some of the biggest restaurant operators in the fast food and coffee space. Established players continue to refranchise their massive global chains, and innovation in the digital channel may ultimately separate some from the pack. By Kris Rosemann Starbucks Comps Grow Nicely; Reiterates Fiscal 2019 Guidance Starbucks’ (SBUX) fiscal 2019 first quarter report, released January 24, revealed top-line strength in the form of 9% year-over-year net revenue growth as global comparable store sales grew 4%. A 3% increase in average ticket on a global basis was key to the increase in comparable store sales, and US comparable store sales growth came in at 4% from the year-ago period despite transactions being … Read more

General Motors Rallies, Tesla and Toyota Improve, Auto Parts Suppliers Getting Squeezed

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Image shown: General Motors may very well be on its way to $50+ per share. We continue to like General Motors, and we think Tesla is getting back on the right track with its financials. Auto parts suppliers have faced their fair share of pressure in recent months as the potential for a slowdown in global light vehicle production rises and input cost inflation also makes its presence felt. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA On February 6, General Motors (GM) reported fourth-quarter 2018 earnings, and they were quite good. We continue to believe shares of GM are ultra-cheap, as we wrote in: “We Think General Motors Is Poised for New Highs.” The automaker is included as an idea … Read more

Comparable Transaction Growth Returns for Chipotle!

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Chipotle turned in impressively strong comparable restaurant sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2018, which included a surprise in comparable restaurant transaction growth, and digital sales continue to grow as a percentage of total sales as management emphasizes growth within the channel. By Kris Rosemann Shares of simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Chipotle (CMG) jumped in after-hours trading following the release of its fourth quarter earnings report February 6. Comparable restaurant sales growth came in at 6.1% on a year-over-year basis thanks to a 3.3% increase in menu prices and a 2% increase in comparable restaurant transactions. Digital sales jumped by nearly 66% from the year-ago period and accounted for 12.9% of total sales … Read more