2022 Oil & Gas Market Update: “The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices Remains Quite Bullish”
July 7, 2022
Transcript Hello, this is Callum Turcan, Associate Director of Research at Valuentum Securities. WTI and Brent have pulled back moderately from recent highs, though near-term futures remain just above $100 per barrel which is well above levels seen last year. As of early July, both WTI and Brent are in backwardation, meaning spot prices are trading at a higher price than later dated future contracts. In other words, the trajectory of future crude oil prices is expected to have a downward slope. Please note that backwardation does not mean that things are going to rapidly deteriorate for the global energy complex, as this dynamic is due to global oil inventories steadily declining over the past two years or so. Backwardation
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 1
July 1, 2022
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 1. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week ASE Technology (ASX): now $0.359 per share dividend, was $0.218. Bank OZK (OZK): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.31. Broadstone Net Lease (BNL): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.27. Ermenegildo Zegna (ZGN): now $0.09 per share dividend. Farmland Partners (FPI): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. First Bancorp (FNLC): now $0.34 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. General Mills (GIS):
Big Changes in the Auto Industry as Chip Shortages, Supply Chain Issues, and Rising Input Costs Complicate Matters; Tesla and Ferrari Our Two Favorite Names
June 30, 2022
Image: Ferrari’s fundamental momentum has been strong of late. Image Source: Ferrari N.V. 2022 Globe Newswire By Brian Nelson, CFA The auto industry perhaps has changed more than any other industry the past five years. First, it was Ford (F) that said it wouldn’t make passenger cars anymore, except for its iconic Mustang. Then, the European Union said that it would eventually end the internal combustion engine (ICE) by 2035. Then, Tesla (TSLA) reached over $1,200 per share and over a $1 trillion market capitalization. Can you imagine a world where Ford is not making sedans, the once modern-marvel of the internal combustion engine is dying, and where one car maker is worth as much as the next nine car
We’re Considering FedEx for the Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio
June 29, 2022
Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA During the past several weeks, we’ve grown increasingly concerned about the health of consumer-tied entities across the consumer staples and consumer discretionary spaces. Many consumer staples entities, while raising prices, aren’t raising them fast enough to drive operating-income and bottom-line expansion, while many consumer discretionary companies may be facing higher freight and logistics costs and weaker performance in Greater China, as that exposed in Nike’s (NKE) most recently-reported quarter, where inventory advanced 23%. The tell-tale sign about the health of the consumer may be Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day, which is coming up on July 12-13, but based on many of the reports we’ve monitored this past earnings season, consumers may be willing to spend
High Yield: Diversified Refiner Phillips 66 A Good Replacement for Broad Consumer Staples Exposure
June 28, 2022
Image Source: Phillips 66 Investor Update May 2022 By Valuentum Analysts Phillips 66 (PSX) is a top-notch operator in the downstream space with impressive refining and petrochemical assets supported by various midstream operations. Its investment-grade credit rating (A3/BBB+), with stable outlooks, better enables Phillips 66 to tap capital markets at attractive rates, something that we especially like when considering new ideas in the high yield dividend arena. A growing global middle class and a growing global population supports Phillip 66’s longer term outlook for refined product demand. We like the company as one of our newest high yield dividend considerations. Phillips 66’s near-term outlook is supported by the ongoing recovery in the global thirst for refined petroleum and petrochemical products as
High-Yielding CubeSmart Is A Compelling Income Generation Idea
June 28, 2022
Image Source: CubeSmart – June 2022 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan The self-storage industry is home to several of our favorite income generation ideas due to the ability for companies operating in this space to generate substantial free cash flows after covering their total dividend obligations. Due to the favorable tax regime, most of these firms tend to be structured as real estate investment trusts (‘REITs’). CubeSmart (CUBE) is a self-storage REIT that is entirely focused on the U.S. market, and we include shares of CUBE as an idea in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. As of this writing, shares of CUBE yield ~4.0%, and our fair value estimate for the firm stands at $56 per share, well above where shares of CUBE
Nike’s Gross Margin Falls, Inventory Leaps in Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022
June 28, 2022
Image Source: Valuentum By Valuentum Analysts Very few other companies, if any other, have built such deep, personal connections with the consumer as Nike, Inc. (NKE) has, let alone the tremendous brand strength, and its endorsement deal with LeBron James gives it yet another top-notch globally marketable superstar. Nike’s annual free cash flows averaged ~$4.0 billion from fiscal 2019-2021, versus its ~$1.6 billion in dividend obligations in fiscal 2021, and it had a solid net cash position on the books at the end of fiscal 2022. The sustained strength seen at its digital and direct-to-consumer operations supports Nike’s outlook. Nike’s Dividend Cushion ratio is impressive; however, its ~1.1% dividend yield is relatively modest. From its namesake to Jordan Brand to
Best Idea Korn Ferry Enters New Fiscal Year on a High Note
June 24, 2022
Image Shown: Best idea Korn Ferry posted a stellar fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 earnings report with several of its core financial metrics reaching all-time highs. The firm also issued out favorable near term guidance in conjunction with its latest earnings update. We continue to be huge fans of the global management consulting firm. Image Source: Korn Ferry – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 22, global management consulting firm Korn Ferry (KFY) reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended April 30, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The firm also raised its dividend 15% sequentially to $0.15 per share or $0.60 on an annualized basis in
