Latest Report Updates
December 13, 2023
Select the company’s link below to access their stock webpage where their 16-page stock report (pdf) can be downloaded. The stock webpage also houses the company’s dividend report (pdf), where applicable, as well as the latest company/industry commentary and news. For companies updated this week, their stock webpages will reflect the new data this weekend. American Tower (AMT) AutoZone (AZO) Best Buy (BBY) BHP Billiton (BHP) Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) ConocoPhillips (COP) Crocs (CROX) Cisco (CSCO) Cintas Corp (CTAS) CubeSmart (CUBE) Dollar Tree (DLTR) DocuSign (DOCU) Estee Lauder (EL) Ford (F) FedEx (FDX) Fiserv (FI) First Solar (FSLR) General Electric (GE) General Motors (GM) Global Payments (GPN) Leggett & Platt (LEG) Eli Lilly (LLY) Lululemon (LULU) McDonald’s (MCD) MercadoLibre (MELI) 3M
Best Ideas Booking Holdings, Chipotle Hit All-Time Highs!
December 12, 2023
Image: Booking Holdings and Chipotle hit brand new all-time highs! By Brian Nelson, CFA Two of our favorite investment idea considerations held within the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Booking Holdings (BKNG) and Chipotle (CMG), have just hit all-time highs. Our fair value estimate of Booking Holdings stands north of $3,600, and we still expect more upside potential in shares. As it relates to Chipotle, we’re huge fans of its long-term restaurant growth potential, and we see upside potential on the basis of the high end of our fair value estimate range. We continue to reiterate our positive stance on both ideas. ———- It’s Here! The Second Edition of Value Trap! Order today! —– Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG,
ESG Matters: Applied Materials Faces Criminal Investigation
December 10, 2023
Image: Applied Materials’ shares faced considerable pressure November 17 as news that it had violated export restrictions to China came to light. On November 16, Reuters reported that Applied Materials (AMAT) allegedly evaded export restrictions by shipping hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment to a subsidiary in South Korea before sending it to China’s biggest chipmaker SMIC. This alleged miscue falls under the Governance [G] category of ESG investing, and shares of Applied Materials have yet to recover from the aggressive sell-off it experienced during the trading session November 17. Though the results of the Department of Justice investigation are still pending, this is quite the black eye for Applied Materials, and we view this as a serious infraction given
Reinstating Coverage of Lululemon
December 8, 2023
Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA On December 7, Lululemon (LULU) reported strong third-quarter results for its fiscal 2023, with revenue increasing 19% and comparable sales increasing 14% on a constant-dollar basis. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.53 came in roughly 10% higher than the consensus forecast. We are reinstating coverage of Lululemon with a $470 per share fair value estimate and an Attractive Economic Castle rating. We like Lululemon but we won’t be adding it to any newsletter portfolio at this time. Here is what CEO Calvin McDonald had to say about the quarter in the press release: This was another strong quarter for lululemon as our innovative product offerings and community activations continued to powerfully resonate
5 Stocks to Consider Buying
December 5, 2023
By Brian Nelson, CFA Stock prices and returns are a function of a company’s net cash on its books and future expectations of free cash flow. No matter what qualitative dynamic one considers in an investment, it must materialize within the discounted cash flow model to have any value. Maybe you love the management and corporate governance of a company? This may show up in a lower discount rate applied to future expected cash flows, as they may be more dependable. What about the brand of a firm? Well, the brand is implicitly valued within how much future free cash flows a company will generate. Pick another qualitative factor. Whatever it may be, it finds its way into the discounted
A Note on Valuation — Low P/E Stocks with High Dividend Yields
December 1, 2023
“But carrying low valuation parameters is far from synonymous with “underpriced.” It’s easy to be seduced by the former, but a stock with a low p/e ratio, for example, is likely to be a bargain only if its current earnings and recent earnings growth are indicative of the future. Just pursuing low valuation metrics can lead you to so-called “value traps”: things that look cheap on the numbers but aren’t, because they have operating weaknesses or because the sales and earnings creating those valuations can’t be replicated in the future.” – Howard Marks, Something of Value (2021) By Brian Nelson, CFA I was reminded of Howard Marks’ 2021 memo, “Something of Value,” after a few readers expressed interest in low
Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse Salesforce Has a Long Growth Runway
November 30, 2023
Image Source: Salesforce By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 29, Salesforce (CRM) reported excellent fiscal third-quarter results and issued an outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter that came in better than expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average component’s results were welcome news as the bellwether revealed that spending on cloud-based CRM software remains robust. In the quarter ending October 31, revenue advanced 11% on a year-over-year basis, while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at a solid $2.11. Its outlook was rosier than what the Street was expecting. For the fiscal fourth quarter, the company is targeting non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $2.25-$2.26 per share, better than the consensus forecast of $2.18. The strong quarter only
Crown Castle Continues to Languish
November 28, 2023
Image: Crown Castle’s shares have not fared well through 2023, and we’ll be looking to remove them from the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio in coming months. By Brian Nelson, CFA Equity REITs have had a difficult 2023, and we continue to look to phase out of them in the newsletter portfolios over time, as we believe the group will continue to struggle, “REITs Will Likely Continue to Underperform.” We’ve generally viewed the tower operators as somewhat immune to the challenges that office and retail REITs are facing these days, but Crown Castle’s (CCI) performance thus far in 2023 hasn’t been great. The company benefits from attractive tower economics as it can scale customers across its shared infrastructure to drive
Nvidia’s Shares Could Run Higher Even More!
November 27, 2023
Image: Nvidia has been a market darling, and the firm’s equity looks to have further upside potential on the basis of our valuation. By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 21, market darling Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) reported excellent fiscal third quarter results for the period ending October 29 that showcased the power behind the revolution in artificial intelligence. The company’s revenue hit a record, advancing more than three-fold on a year-over-year basis thanks to strength in its Data Center business. Its non-GAAP earnings were up six-fold from the year-ago period, and the firm continues to haul in tremendous free cash flow. We’ve raised our fair value estimate of Nvidia to $606 per share, and we think the company’s shares could continue
Can Things Really Stay This Good?
November 27, 2023
Hi everyone: It’s Brian. Can things really stay this good? It’s a question that I keep asking myself. For starters, the investment landscape has changed quite a bit over the past decade. Years ago, interest rates were near-zero, and an intense focus on dividends may have made a lot of sense. Interest rates are now much higher, and that means risk-free assets offer yields that are a multiple of that of the yield of the S&P 500. The markets in this regard are starting to make a lot of sense as Dividend Aristocrats have suffered a difficult year so far in 2023. I think many of these names will likely remain depressed until risk-free rates fall below that
