Alert: 5 Reasons Why We Think Netflix’s Shares Will Collapse
February 15, 2016
Pictured: The “black space” a Netflix user encounters after searching for movies that include one of Hollywood’s biggest superstars, Jennifer Lawrence. By Brian Nelson, CFA Netflix’s (NFLX) shares are considerably vulnerable. The content distributor’s business model is in jeopardy in light of rising cash content costs amid a subpar product offering, and we don’t believe there is an easy answer to its woes — either ever-higher cash streaming content costs will obliterate equity value over the long haul despite member growth, or a cut in such necessary cash content obligations will hurt its streaming product assortment and therefore member growth and subscriber retention. We’re pointing investors to the low end of the fair value estimate range for shares, the low-$60s, but we believe there may be further downside
Your Hard-Earned Money
February 12, 2016
By Brian Nelson, CFA It was Thursday afternoon, February 11, crude oil prices just hit a 13-year low, and the S&P 500 (SPY) was about to break below key technical support. Then, just as the markets were to fall further, rumors again emerged that OPEC may be scheduling a meeting to curb crude oil output, driving crude oil prices from the depths and the market higher off technical support. A barrel of crude oil continues to trade below the $30 mark, but it was quite the “save.” From where we stand, the market hasn’t been this fragile than at any time during the past decade or so, including during much of the Financial Crisis. Optimists may be whistling past the
Falling Knives among Internet-Based Equities
February 12, 2016
Image Source: Spencer E Holtaway By Kris Rosemann The firestorm among Internet equities didn’t stop with LinkedIn’s (LNKD) fourth-quarter catastrophe, “Three Blow Ups after the Close February 4.” Twitter (TWTR), Zynga (ZNGA), Zillow (Z, ZG), and Pandora (P) also remain challenged. We’ve never liked Twitter, and we don’t think we ever will, “Twitter’s Valuation Enigma (Feb 2015)” The company’s investment opportunity-to-news ratio is practically nil, in our view, but that won’t stop investors from talking about it, and we do so, if only to explain why the firm is but a lotto ticket, not likely to pay off. Twitter recently turned free cash flow positive in 2015, but most of the cash flow boost came from non-cash stock-based compensation, a tangible
More Market Weakness: We Haven’t Hit Bottom Yet
February 11, 2016
Global equity markets are falling yet again February 11, in part due to cautious comments from US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen about the health of the global economy and the legality/efficaciousness of negative interest rates, “Dividend Growth ‘Bubble’ To Continue But For How Long? (Feb 2016).” Market onlookers continue to fear that the Fed has nothing left to give, “out of ammunition,” with the tank of accommodative policy empty, and it might just be. To us, however, the news flow is more of the same. The world continues to be awash in crude oil (USO), and many are now starting to think that what was once mostly an oversupply problem is now being compounded by a demand problem as
Cisco Hikes Payout 24%! Realty Income’s Dividend Coverage Solid
February 11, 2016
By Kris Rosemann Two resilient dividend payers that reside in the newsletter portfolios, Cisco (CSCO) and Realty Income (O), reported quarterly results February 10. We were mighty pleased. Networking giant Cisco, a ~1.5% weighting in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, is a free-cash-flow generating machine. Concurrent with its fiscal second-quarter release, the company announced a remarkable 24% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.26 per share (good now for a 4.5% forward yield), a pace of growth roughly on par with its impressive ~27% increase in its free cash flow through the first six months of fiscal year 2016. Cisco also added $15 billion to its buyback program, and management remains committed to returning
Solar Not So Bright
February 10, 2016
We continue to believe the solar industry is “uninvestable.” You don’t have to look much further than the write-up in any solar industry constituent’s 16-page report to get our straightforward opinion: The solar industry is extremely competitive and continually evolving as constituents strive to differentiate themselves to better compete within the broader electric power industry. Significant price reductions (per watt), reduced margins, and drastic market share shifts have become commonplace for participants. Profitability can be negatively impacted from government subsidies and sovereign capital that allow firms to operate unprofitably for extended periods of time. Production overcapacity is another major concern and will likely persist for some time. We think the structure of the solar industry is very poor. After the
You Knew Anadarko’s Dividend Was at Tremendous Risk
February 9, 2016
If you had received the latest edition of Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter, released February 1, you would have found Anadarko (APC) on the ‘Dividend Yields to Avoid’ list, right on page 12. Go ahead: download the newsletter yourself, page 12: “.” It’s in there. The list of dividend cuts that the Dividend Cushion ratio has predicted continues to build. For example, we had been cautioning about the risks to ConocoPhillips’ (COP) dividend health since 2012, and we just reiterated that warning January 25, a few weeks ago, “Valuentum Reiterates Risks of ConocoPhillips Dividend,” prior to the dividend cut that followed. We believe the forward-looking, cash-flow based foundation of the Dividend Cushion ratio makes it an invaluable tool for any investors’
Alert: Health Care REITs Whacked
February 9, 2016
We know better than to make mistakes such as HCP (HCP), but we can’t go back now. We’ve been holding onto the company because it was just a sliver of a position in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, but today we’re saying good-bye. Here’s what we wrote as recently as November 9, “Dividend Growth Newsletter REITs:” HCP continues to be a lesson learned to us here at Valuentum. The firm’s dividend track record had far too high of an influence on our decision making in establishing a position in the REIT in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The fact that the company is the only REIT included on the list of Dividend Aristocrats was too attractive for us to deny,
Kinder Morgan, MLPs, and the Risk of $0
February 9, 2016
Valuentum’s Brian Nelson shares his analytical secrets and tips in an open seminar with Q&A. He’ll outline what he saw in the financials of Kinder Morgan that shocked him in June and what continues to worry him about MLPs today that prompted him to make such a controversial call to help investors avoid the collapse that has subsequently happened. There’s more, but we can’t give it all away in the teaser. Recordings Available — Order today! Select the ‘Buy Now’ button to purchase today. You will receive a confirmation email with additional details following your registration. ————————- Webinar Background On June 11, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson wrote ‘5 Reasons Why We Think Kinder Morgan’s Shares Will Collapse,” removing
Market’s Swooning: Bye Bye Energy MLPs, Part II
February 8, 2016
Things were ugly again during the trading session February 8, but you were expecting the weakness. There’s nothing surprising, and we continue to wait to scoop up undervalued gems once the tide of this market turns. Topping the news today was the abrupt replacement of the CFO of Energy Transfer Equity (ETE)/Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) coupled with the sell-off in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) on news of a probable bankruptcy, which set the tone among midstream MLPs (AMLP), the index diving aggressively. Followers of Valuentum were far ahead of these developments, “Focus on ETE, Not ETP, Strive for Balance and Stick to the SEC Filings,””Alert: Energy Transfer Equity Is More than 7x Leveraged!,” “Energy MLPs Continue Swoon,” and our body of
