What Gilead’s Patent Miscue Means for Shareholders
March 23, 2016
Source: Gilead Sciences Corporate Fact Sheet (pdf) By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s nothing quite like market instincts. They can’t be taught from reading textbooks, in the classroom, in a valuation model, or even with years and years of experience. It’s the intangibles that sometimes count the most. When we removed Gilead (GILD) from the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter, “Alerts: High-grading! GILD–>JNJ… (Jan 2016),” we just knew something wasn’t right. Sure the introduction of Merck’s (MRK) once-daily single-tablet combination therapy, Zepatier, a significantly less expensive therapy to Gilead’s prized hepatitis C franchise was one major concern at the time, but the market is often not this inefficient when valuing equities. Almost counterintuitively, it became worrisome to us that for
Part II: Nelson’s Evaluation of Berkshire’s 2015 Annual Report
March 23, 2016
Warren Buffett’s optimism about the future of America remains unending. Image source: /\\ \\/\\/ /\\ << Go back to Part I By Brian Nelson, CFA “If you want to guarantee yourself a lifetime of misery, be sure to marry someone with the intent of changing their behavior.” – a “Mungerism” explaining the importance of identifying good managers when pursuing a hands-off ownership style. We covered quite a bit of ground in the first part of the evaluation of Berkshire Hathaway’s 2015 annual report here, and we’ll cover even more ground in this second installment. We left off with a good conversation about the insurance business, and how part of Berkshire Hathaway’s business strength emanates from its fortress balance sheet and credit
Terrorist Activity Tramples Travel Stocks; FBI Says Can Hack iPhone
March 22, 2016
In what have unfortunately become seemingly more frequent occurrences, terrorist activity across the globe appears to be proliferating. The latest, three explosions in the Belgium capital of Brussels, have taken the lives of at least 34 individuals, while wounding as many as 170 more, according to CNN and the Belgian media. Twenty were killed at the Maalbeek metro station while 14 more were killed at Brussels’ international airport, and while at the time of this writing, there has been “no official claim of responsibility,” ISIS appears to be most likely responsible for the terror, tweeting that “What will be coming is worse,” CNN reporting. The events March 22 come only a few short months after the terrorist attacks that rocked
Crude Oil Prices Now Near $40 Per Barrel
March 21, 2016
Image: Top holdings of the Energy Select Sector SPDR; source: State Street. Call it luck. Call it good timing. Call it what you will, but we’re calling it tactical prudence within a portfolio management context. The newsletter portfolios have been on the “long side” of energy equities now for the better part of the past few months, after having negligible exposure to the energy-sector bust for most of the past few years. We continue to target achieving the goals of the newsletter portfolios, and we think tactical exposure makes sense at this time. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices (USO) have now advanced to ~$40 per barrel from the depths of the mid-$20s just a few months ago, and while
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 18
March 21, 2016
Image: Williams-Sonoma’s dividend strength continues to impress; source: Mike Mozart Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending March 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD): now $0.86 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.81. CareTrust REIT (CTRE): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.16. Children’s Place Retail Stores (PLCE): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Global High Income Fund (GHI): now $0.0658 per share monthly dividend, was $0.0657. Granite Real Estate (GRP.U): now C$0.203
Valeant’s Back Firmly Up Against the Wall
March 15, 2016
Image: A bottle of Valeant’s anti-depression drug Wellbrutin lay in disarray, much like the company’s operations. Wellbrutin was one of several key drugs on which Valeant used questionable pricing strategies to increase sales, source: Wendy. Valeant (VRX) CEO Michael Pearson said it rather bluntly on the firm’s preliminary fourth quarter 2015 press release, “The challenges of the past few months are not yet behind us…” The company has faced a significant amount of political and financial pressure in recent months as the firm has been the subject of numerous investigations from government agencies and multiple litigations, and also delayed the filing of its 2015 annual report to April. Valeant has warned that it could face an “event of default” if
The Corporate Buyback Conundrum
March 14, 2016
The above is a trailing 15-month chart of the broad market index, the S&P 500 (SPY). As you can see, the markets have gone nowhere fast. The fallout in the energy complex coupled with emerging market uncertainty and political unrest in the US is making for quite the choppy market environment. Interestingly, however, since the middle of last year, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has quietly been distancing itself from this broad market benchmark, as strong performance from constituents coupled with a larger cash position in a generally weaker market have paid off. Where indexers focus on controlling costs instead of focusing on generating strong returns with relatively low turnover (and commission and tax implications), the strategy powering the Best
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 11
March 14, 2016
Colgate-Palmolive continues to enjoy the benefits of being a Dividend Aristocrat as it garners an elevated multiple as one of the most well-known consumer staples entities. Image source: Fredrick Rubensson Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending March 11. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE): now $0.80 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.77. American Tower (AMT): now $0.51 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.49. Citizens Financial Services (CZFS): now $0.415 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.41. Colgate-Palmolive
Big Labor Topples Republic Airways; More Trouble for Other Airlines?
March 12, 2016
Image Source: Boeing The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down. — Warren Buffett, annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 2008. The airline industry has just turned in its second consecutive year of record profits, but the harmony may soon be over for the industry as it could be on the verge of its next big problem. If major airlines are not
Part I: Nelson’s Evaluation of Berkshire’s 2015 Annual Report
March 10, 2016
Image Source: Fortune Live Media By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s always fun to crack open the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) annual report, this year’s 2015. It reminds me of how much times have changed. For one, if Warren Buffett had been starting out in the investment business today, he simply wouldn’t have had a chance. The front page of this year’s Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter shows that he trailed the market 33% of the time in the first 6 years in business (1965-1970), and the company lost half of its market value in 1974. Very few fund managers today, if any at all, that lose half of their market value in one year, trailing the market by 22 percentage points
