Realty Income Signals Turbulence Ahead, Shores Up Liquidity Position
May 13, 2020
Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On May 4, the real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Realty Income Corporation (O) posted first-quarter 2020 earnings that saw its adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) per share jump by over 7% year-over-year, hitting $0.78 last quarter. Realty Income pays out a monthly dividend, and shares of O yield ~5.1% as of this writing. We like the REIT’s business model, which invests in single-tenant commercial properties, and we view Realty Income as well-positioned to ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. However, we caution that its near-term financial performance will come under fire from some of its tenants no longer being able to (or willing
Unicredit Is Best Worth Avoiding
May 13, 2020
The combination of revenue pressure from lower rates, a difficult operating environment, weakening efficiency metrics, one-off losses, and arguable low provisions for credit losses make for an ugly picture emerging at Unicredit at this time. We’re paying close attention to the key banking players in Europe to assess the likelihood of a global financial contagion that may accompany the global pandemic that has become COVID-19. By Matthew Warren Unicredit (UNCFF) posted dismal first-quarter results May 6 that showed revenue falling 8.2% and negative “underlying net profit” of EUR 100 million from the same period last year. Stated net profit in the period was even worse at negative EUR 2.706 billion, including integration costs in Italy (EWI), a loss related to
Republic Services: “The Worst Is Behind Us…”
May 11, 2020
The waste industry has a number of cost levers to pull to overcome profit pressures in its residential pick-up operations and reduced volume in its commercial and industrial operations, the latter a higher margin proposition. However, economic activity seems to be picking up, and some are saying the worst may be behind us. Our favorite waste hauler is Republic Services. By Brian Nelson, CFA We talked a lot about the waste industry in the book Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, explaining why the oligopolistic structure of the trash-taking space is much more attractive than the oligopolistic structure of the airline industry. For one, the former holds tremendous pricing power (consumers might be willing to pay up to get their
Facebook Is Roaring Higher!
May 11, 2020
Image Shown: Shares of Facebook Inc have roared higher since reaching their March 2020 lows, far outpacing the rebound in the S&P 500 (SPY). We continue to like shares of FB as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Callum Turcan Top-weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook Inc (FB) posted first quarter 2020 earnings on April 29 that saw its GAAP revenues jump 18% year-over-year to $17.3 billion while its GAAP diluted EPS grew by 101% year-over-year, hitting $1.71. Please note that Facebook’s bottom-line comparison was made easier due to the firm recording a $3.0 billion legal settlement with the US Federal Trade Commission (‘FTC’) during the first quarter of 2019. While digital advertising spending levels
Valuentum Experiences Unprecedented Demand for Services
May 10, 2020
Unprecedented Demand for Valuentum’s Services; Unique Visitors Up 207%, Number of Visits Up 164% During 1Q Versus Same Period Last Year Woodstock, May 10, 2020 – Valuentum, a trusted source for independent investment opinion for individuals, advisors and institutions, has provided a business update amid the COVID-19 pandemic. “I continue to be thankful for my colleagues at Valuentum and their tireless efforts to go above and beyond to help investors during these challenging times. Valuentum’s service ran uninterrupted during the stock market’s unprecedented volatility the past several months,” said Brian Nelson, Valuentum’s President and Chief Executive Officer. Our no-nonsense approach to investment research publishing continues to resonate with individuals, investors, and institutions alike, as Valuentum registered one of its best
ICYMI: Never Been More Bullish Even as Buffett Dumps Airlines
May 8, 2020
Image Source: IATA. Data Source: McKinsey & Company (IATA). Airlines haven’t been able to earn their estimated cost of capital for as long as we can remember. There have been hundreds of airline bankruptcies since deregulation in 1978. By Brian Nelson, CFA On Saturday, May 2, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) reported expectedly weak first-quarter results. We won’t be ditching Berkshire Hathaway’s stock in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio so long as Uncle Warren is at the helm, but there were a couple takeaways from the report that we want you to be aware of (we’ll have another more extensive note focusing more exclusively on Berkshire coming out soon). The first big piece of news, something that should not be surprising
Disney’s Financials Will Eventually Rebound
May 8, 2020
Image Source: Marc Levin By Callum Turcan On May 5, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended March 28, 2020) that beat consensus top-line estimates but missed consensus bottom-line estimates. The firm’s financial and operational performance has taken a hit from the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic; however, in our view the firm will bounce back considerably once a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available (which isn’t a certainty, but a lot of companies are actively pushing forward with human clinical trials as we speak including this firm). We continue to like Disney with a modest weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. As an aside, Disney’s former CEO Bog Iger stepped aside recently and is
Best Idea PayPal Soars on Very Promising Outlook
May 7, 2020
Image Shown: Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea PayPal is surging after a strong outlook that speaks to underlying strength of the “new” consumer in a post COVID-19 world. By Callum Turcan On May 6, one of our favorite companies PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) reported first quarter 2020 earnings. While PayPal missed consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-line, investors looked towards the future and shares of PYPL rose sharply after the report on May 7. We continue to like PayPal as a near top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Please note we increased the weighting of PYPL shares in that newsletter portfolio back on January 13, 2020 (link here) and further increased PayPal’s weighting in our Best
Gold Miner Newmont Continues to Shine
May 7, 2020
Image Source: Newmont Corporation – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On May 5, the gold miner Newmont Corporation (NEM) reported first quarter 2020 earnings that missed both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates which prompted shares to sell off modestly during the normal trading session that day, though shares of NEM have been on an epic bull run since the start of 2020. We continue to like Newmont as an idea in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio with shares of NEM up ~48% as of this writing since joining the portfolio on January 13, 2020 (link here), before taking dividend considerations into account, while the S&P 500 (SPY) is down ~13% during this period before taking
BNP Paribas’ Shares Could Have Upside Potential
May 7, 2020
BNP Paribas’ shares are trading at a fraction of tangible book. If the bank can contain its cost of risk through this cycle and produce double-digit returns on tangible equity on the other side of this crisis, shareholders would do quite well in such a scenario. That said, we point out that Europe is overtraded when it comes to banking, which pressures earnings power at even the stronger banks like BNP Paribas. We’re paying close attention to the key banking players in Europe to assess the likelihood of a global financial contagion that may accompany the global pandemic that has become COVID-19. By Matthew Warren BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF, BNPZY) reported relatively better results than many large global bank peers,
