High Yielding Philip Morris Boosts Guidance
April 30, 2021
Image Shown: Philip Morris International Inc has been steadily growing its alternative tobacco product sales during the past several years and its growth outlook on this front is quite bright. RRP stands for reduced-risk products according to Philip Morris. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Back in 2008, Philip Morris International Inc (PM) spun off Altria Group Inc (MO). The move separated the international business (Philip Morris) from the US business (Altria) that is behind the popular Marlboro brand and various other tobacco brands. The two companies have been working together on marketing Philip Morris’ IQOS heated tobacco unit (‘HTU’) offering in the US during the past couple years,
Best Idea Facebook Posts Blowout Earnings Report
April 29, 2021
Image Shown: Facebook Inc’s digital advertising business is a behemoth and enabled the firm to put up banner first quarter 2021 performance. We continue to be enormous fans of Facebook and include shares of FB as a top-weighted idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Facebook Inc – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan We continue to view Facebook Inc (FB) as one of the most attractive capital appreciation opportunities out there as shares of FB, as of this writing, are trading at a steep discount to their intrinsic value on the basis of enterprise cash flow analysis. Our fair value estimate for Facebook sits at $413 per share with room for upside as
Visa’s Business Is on the Rebound
April 29, 2021
Image Shown: Visa Inc remains a tremendous free cash flow generator, aided by its asset-light business model. We continue to be big fans of Visa and include the company as a top-weighted idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Visa Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On April 27, Visa Inc (V) reported second quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended March 31, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Visa’s GAAP revenues and GAAP operating income were down 2% and 9% year-over-year, respectively, last fiscal quarter as its cross-border business remains subdued. On the flip side, Visa’s total payment volumes and processed transaction were up 8% and 11% year-over-year,
Trash Is Cash
April 27, 2021
Image Source: Clyde Robinson By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s hard not to like exposure to the municipal solid waste industry. Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Republic Services (RSG) finished 2020 on a solid note, and you can read about our latest thoughts on the company here. From valuable disposal capacity to lucrative contract-based revenue with CPI-escalators, Republic Services is one strong consideration. Waste Management’s first-quarter 2021 results, released April 27, only reinforces our thesis on the waste hauler space. The read-through across the municipal solid waste space is a positive one for peers Republic Services and Waste Connections (WCN), as Waste Management is the bellwether for the group. Here’s what Waste Management CEO Jim Fish had to say about his
Tesla Scaling Up Nicely
April 27, 2021
Image Shown: Tesla Inc is steadily working towards bringing another manufacturing facility online in the US, this time near Austin, Texas. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Shareholder Letter Covering the First Quarter of 2021 By Callum Turcan Electric vehicle (‘EV’) giant Tesla Inc (TSLA) continues to impress as it smashed past consensus top- and bottom-line estimates when it reported first quarter 2021 earnings on April 26. The company delivered 184,800 vehicles (182,780 Model 3/Y variants and 2,020 Model S/X variants) and produced 180,338 vehicles in the first quarter of this year, though we note that Tesla only produced Model 3/Y variants last quarter and Model S/X vehicle deliveries were met via its inventory. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla’s
Competition Is Heating Up for Intel
April 26, 2021
Image Shown: Intel’s shares have outpaced the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) since we removed them October 2020. By Brian Nelson, CFA We removed Intel (INTC) from the simulated newsletter portfolios in late October 2020. Since then, the chip giant has outpaced the index modestly. We’re not reading too much into this, but we wanted to keep the name in front of you as it has been an idea in the simulated newsletter portfolios in the past. Shares yield about ~2.4% at the time of this writing. On April 22, Intel reported first-quarter 2021 results that showed flat non-GAAP revenue performance, while non-GAAP earnings per share declined modestly. Intel has lost a bit of its edge against Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Chipotle Could Double the Number of Restaurants in the Long Run
April 26, 2021
Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA “Letting winners run” is an important dynamic behind the concept of compounding, and it often makes having a long-term horizon necessary. I talk about how we think about “letting winners run” in the following video, “Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value.” Compounding returns is one powerful aspect of investing. That said, we can understand why it may be confusing to see us continue to highlight ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios that may be trading above the high end of the fair value estimate range, but per the Valuentum methodology, we would only look to remove them when their shares start to roll over in a meaningful
P&G and Kimberly-Clark Tell Two Different Stories
April 23, 2021
Image Shown: Since the beginning of 2019, on a price-only basis, Procter & Gamble (orange) has handily outpaced the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF while Kimberly-Clark (turquoise) has stumbled. Brian Nelson, CFA Consumer staples (VDC) stocks are known for the stability of their demand profiles, strong and recognizable household brand names, and solid dividend growth track records. Procter & Gamble (PG) may be among the most recognizable names across the sector, but Kimberly-Clark (KMB) is not far behind. Their share prices, however, tell two different stories since the beginning of 2019. In P&G’s third-quarter fiscal 2021 report (calendar first quarter), issued April 20, the company posted a net sales increase of 5% and diluted net earnings per share expansion of 13%,
Lockheed Martin Boosts Guidance
April 23, 2021
Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Geopolitical tensions are on the rise worldwide. In recent weeks, Russian forces started massing on the border with Ukraine (though reportedly, those forces are beginning to pull back) as acrimony between Western governments and Russia continues to grow while the situation in Ukraine (i.e., Russia’s annexation of Crimea and involvement in eastern regions of Ukraine) remains in paralysis. Tensions between the US and China are building as well with an eye towards trading relations, espionage of all kinds, and cyber-attacks. The geopolitical backdrop indicates that the trajectory of defense spending is likely to continue growing in key developed and developing nations worldwide going
Coca-Cola Looks Ready to Break Out, Valuation Not Attractive Though
April 22, 2021
Image Shown: Coca-Cola’s technicals look like they are carving out a nice cup-and-handle pattern, but its valuation leaves a lot to be desired, in our view. By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 19, Coca-Cola (KO) reported solid first-quarter results that showed net revenue increasing 5% and its operating margin advancing 2.5 percentage points from the year-ago period. Comparable earnings per share leapt 8%, to $0.55. Very few companies have as strong a brand name and dividend track record as Coca-Cola, but investors should be cautious about its valuation, in our view. On the basis of our discounted cash-flow modeling approach, the high end of our fair value estimate range of Coca-Cola stands at $48 per share, which reflects over 20x
