Inflation! How to Think About Value Duration
May 10, 2021
By Brian Nelson, CFA Investors continue to focus on the prospects of rising inflation expectations, which are impacting Treasury bond yields. The 10-year Treasury note, which is used as the foundation for discount rates within most valuation constructs, now stands at ~1.61%, up meaningfully from the ~0.5% lows set in early August 2020. The Fed/Treasury continue to be highly accommodative, and the growing market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is adding even more “new money” to the system. Investors continue to discount the longer-duration free cash flow profiles of the most speculative technology companies more aggressively. For example, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is full of speculative tech names, has fallen to ~$105 per share from a 52-week high of $159.70
Utility PPL Is Pursuing a Major Transformation and Has a VBI Rating of 9
May 10, 2021
Image Source: PPL Corporation – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan PPL Corporation (PPL) operates several utilities in the US and the UK, though the company is in the process of selling its UK utility business (Western Power Distribution) to National Grid plc (NGG). When including the assumption of approximately GBP£6.6 billion in debt, this deal has a transaction value of roughly GBP£14.4 billion and is expected to generate about USD$10.2 billion in net cash proceeds for PPL. Additionally, as part of this arrangement, PPL will acquire National Grid’s Rhode Island utility business in the US (Narragansett Electric Company). When including the assumption of approximately USD$1.5 billion in debt, this deal has a total transaction value
3 Strong Dividend Payers to Consider Within Consumer Staples
May 6, 2021
By Brian Nelson, CFA Dividend growth may never go out of style. For one, there are tremendous compounding benefits to investing in dividend growers over the long haul, “3 Substantial Benefits of Dividend Growth Investing.” A focus on traditional cash-based sources of intrinsic value and dividend health is therefore essential to avoid tragic dividend cuts in your portfolio (see our walk-through of the cash-based sources of intrinsic value and how to find them in our article/video about Apple here). Three dividend growers that we do not include in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio but that have recently-reported calendar first-quarter 2021 earnings and may be worth considering in a diversified equity portfolio are Kellogg (K), Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX). These three
PayPal Reports Strongest First Quarter Results in History!
May 5, 2021
Image Shown: A snapshot of PayPal’s first-quarter performance. Image Source: PayPal. By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 5, PayPal Holdings (PYPL), which is included as a highly-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, reported fantastic first-quarter 2021 earnings. Revenue grew ~31% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, helping to drive non-GAAP earnings per share to $1.22, up 84% from the $0.66 registered in the year-ago period. Total payment volume leapt ~50%, and the company added ~14.5 million net new active accounts in the period. PayPal raised its guidance for revenue, earnings, total payment volume and net new active accounts for 2021. Revenue is now expected to advance ~20% at present currency exchange rates, while non-GAAP earnings per share
Berkshire Hathaway Charging Higher
May 5, 2021
Image Shown: Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B stock are on a nice upward climb year-to-date, and we include BRK.B as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Callum Turcan On Saturday, May 1, Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) (BRK.B) reported first quarter 2021 earnings that impressed, in our view. We include Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and continue to be big fans of the firm and its management team, led by CEO and Chairman Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger. Some big news came out recently as it concerns the eventual management transition at Berkshire Hathaway. Reportedly, Greg Abel, who runs Berkshire Hathaway’s non-insurance operations, would take
Video: Sports Cards as an Alternative Asset Class
May 5, 2021
Sports Cards as an Alternative Asset Class Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson explains recent developments in the sports cards and memorabilia market, and why he thinks the area will become a feasible, transparent and liquid alternative asset class for investors to consider in the longer run. Tickerized for CLCT, MUDS, BID, MVP, MSGN, MSGS, VIAC, GTN, BATRA, BATRK, FDMSF, MANU, WWE, NKE, UA, UAA, ADDYY, DIS, ELY, DKS, FWONK, EDR, BETZ, RACE, SEAH, RBAC, SPTKU, PUCKU, SBGI, AKIC, DVD, PLBY —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY,
Video: Apple’s Cash Based Sources of Intrinsic Value and Dividend Health
May 4, 2021
Image Shown: Inside an Apple store. Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA The core of stock valuation centers on two cash-based drivers: the net cash a company has on its balance sheet and the enterprise free cash flows that it will generate in the future, discounted back to today at a reasonable discount rate. After subtracting the value of other components of the capital structure such as preferred stock or debt from the sum of net cash and the present value of future enterprise free cash flows and dividing by total diluted shares outstanding, the result is called a fair value estimate. The fair value estimate is then compared to the stock price to determine if shares are undervalued or
The Real Reasons Why Buffett Wants You in Index Funds
May 3, 2021
Image Shown: Since mid-June 2015, on a price-only basis, the S&P 500 (SPY) has nearly doubled, while shares of Kinder Morgan have nearly halved. In Morgan Housel’s The Psychology of Money, chapter 16 leads in with “Beware taking financial cues from people playing a different game than you are.” The people on CNBC are playing a different game than you, and so is Warren Buffett. Buffett’s principles of stock selection are golden, but you must understand that he is near the top of the Forbes’ Billionaires List. He absolutely should be taking his own advice and indexing! With the threat of long-term inflation and price-agnostic trading, the everyday investor, even with a few million in the bank, is not so
Domino’s Pizza Well-Positioned for Long Run
April 30, 2021
Image Shown: Domino’s has the right business model for the long haul. Unit economics are fantastic for franchisees, while same-store sales continue to benefit from first-mover digital initiatives. Earnings per share growth has been stellar for the past decade. Image Source: April 2021 Presentation. By Brian Nelson, CFA It could be a Tuesday afternoon or a Friday night. It’s never been easier to have your order from Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) delivered to your doorstep. With a few clicks on the app, you can place your order, track the pizza from the oven through delivery, and even know the name of the driver – all within a matter of minutes. From the young family looking for something quick and easy to
Public Storage Breaks Out!
April 30, 2021
Image Shown: Public Storage’s chart looks mighty attractive, with shares having experienced a powerful breakout recently. Its dividend is equally attractive, in our view. Brian Nelson, CFA On Wednesday, April 28, Public Storage (PSA) reported excellent first-quarter 2021 results. The self-storage giant grew core funds from operations (FFO) 9.3% in the period, to $2.82 per diluted share. Same store direct net operating income advanced 6.5% as same store sales increased while same store direct cost of operations fell. Everything seems to be going right for Public Storage at the moment. Here’s what Public Storage’s CEO Joe Russell had to say about the quarter and outlook in the press release: Public Storage’s focus on the customer experience, operating model innovation, and
