AT&T Is Targeting Free Cash Flow in the Low-to-Mid $16 Billion Range for 2025

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By Brian Nelson, CFA

AT&T (T) recently reported second quarter results that came in better than expectations. Revenue came in at $30.8 billion versus $29.8 billion in last year’s quarter thanks to strength in mobility and consumer wireline revenue, while adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.54 versus $0.51 in the year-ago period. Consensus was at $0.53 per share. Adjusted operating income came in at $6.5 billion versus $6.3 billion in same period last year, while net income was $4.9 billion versus $3.9 billion in the year-ago period and adjusted EBITDA was $11.7 billion versus $11.3 billion in the year-ago quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $9.8 billion in the quarter, while free cash flow, excluding cash flows from DIRECTV, was $4.4 billion versus $4 billion a year ago.

Management had the following to say about the results:

We are winning in a highly competitive marketplace, with the nation’s largest wireless and fiber networks. Customers are increasingly choosing AT&T because we have the best technology and options for wireless and broadband connectivity, backed by the AT&T Guarantee. The milestones achieved this quarter – from passing more than 30 million customer locations with fiber and eclipsing 1 million total AT&T Internet Air customers, to our agreement to acquire substantially all of Lumen’s Mass Markets fiber business – strengthen the industry’s best and leading connectivity portfolio.

Looking to the full year 2025, AT&T expects consolidated service revenue growth in the low-single-digit range, with mobility service revenue growth of 3% or better and consumer fiber broadband revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens. For the year, AT&T is targeting adjusted EBITDA growth of 3% or better, with mobility EBITDA growth of roughly 3%, business wireline EBITDA lower by a low-double-digit range, and consumer wireline EBITDA growth in the low-to-mid-teens range. Free cash flow for 2025 is expected in the low-to-mid $16 billion range, while adjusted earnings per share is targeted in the range of $1.97-$2.07. We like AT&T but can’t get comfortable with its total debt load of $132.3 billion. We remain on the sidelines. Shares yield 3.8% at the time of this writing.

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