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Corporate Shopping This Holiday Season
2015 may very well end up being remembered as the “year of the merger,” as the total dollar value of mergers and acquisitions in the year is on pace to set an all-time record. According to recent reports, Dow Chemical (DOW), DuPont (DD), and Yahoo! (YHOO), are doing what they can to be a part of that record. All three have faced tremendous pressure from activist investors as of late. On December 8, Dow Chemical and DuPont were reported to be in advanced talks on a massive merger. The rival chemical producers would likely split into three separate companies following the transaction; the three independently operating businesses would be material sciences, specialty products, and agrochemicals. Though labeled a “merger of … Read more
Alphabet (Google) and eBay Power Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio!
It’s no secret that the Internet and the companies that operate within the Internet space are always changing. There must be continuous innovation and re-discovery to keep up with the competition to amaze society with the next great development. Consumers have become accustomed to many of the Internet giants doing just that, pushing the envelope and enriching their lives with a better, faster, or more convenient way of content consumption. One of the many struggles that Internet-based entities have is not only how to create these new products, devices, or programs, but also how to monetize such breakthrough endeavors successfully. In a fast-changing environment, it is never easy to deliver sustainable, profitable and innovative growth. Let’s take a look at … Read more
Yahoo! Weighing Its Options
The IRS has thrown a monkey wrench in Yahoo!’s (YHOO) plans for a tax-free spin-off of its 384 million shares of Alibaba (BABA), worth nearly $40 billion. In late January, Yahoo! announced a plan for the spin-off of its remaining position in Alibaba into a newly-formed investment company, to be called Aabaco Holdings. Yahoo had planned for the stock of the new company to be distributed pro rata to existing Yahoo shareholders. After the completion of the proposed transaction, Aabaco Holdings would either directly or indirectly own the 384 million shares of Alibaba formerly owned by Yahoo, along with a 100% ownership interest in Aabaco Small Business, which would be a newly-formed entity that owns Yahoo Small Business. Yahoo Small … Read more
How Large Will Alibaba Be in 2035… That’s the Right Perspective
We’re not happy with Alibaba’s (BABA) share price performance. It has been one of our rare losers in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our thesis on Alibaba continues to be a long-term one, however, and unless China enters a 20-year bear market, never again reaching the heights of yesteryear, we’re not worried about it. But that said, we’re not oblivious to the near term and may lighten up on the dwindling position in hopes that a better, lower price can be established. We won’t do so without emailing an alert first, which is standard practice with newsletter constituents. We won’t harp on Alibaba’s fiscal first-quarter results, released August 12, which showed revenue advancing nearly 29% and earnings coming in a … Read more
Guide to Second Quarter Earnings; Big Cap Tech Sets Somber Mood
Image Source: Fortune Live Media, Fortune Most Powerful Women Dinner With Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer Apple (AAPL) There were no real surprises in Apple’s fiscal third quarter (calendar second quarter) results. The iPhone maker posted record quarterly revenue and net earnings of $49.6 billion and $10.7 billion, up ~33% and ~39%, respectively, thanks to record fiscal third-quarter sales of iPhone and Mac; its highest ever sales from services and the successful execution of the launch of the Apple Watch also buoyed performance. An “amazing quarter,” iPhone revenue advanced 59%, and customers and investors alike are looking forward to the release of iOS 9, OS X El Capitan and watchOS 2 in the fall. Apple’s gross margin expanded 30 basis points in … Read more
Market Is Catching On To Alibaba
Since Alibaba’s (BABA) IPO in September 2014, we have been adamant about the long-term potential of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba. Our fair value estimate of its share price currently sits at $134. Though we expect price-to-fair convergence to happen eventually, it will take some time. Despite currency and country-specific risk concerns, as well as the recent development of potential tax ramifications of Yahoo!’s (YHOO) spinoff of Alibaba shares and whether ultimately the tax bill would land on shareholders’ laps, the company is currently undervalued, and the firm has just started to turn heads regarding the improvement in its monetization rate. To us, it will always be more important that a company is undervalued than where it generates its business. Currency … Read more
The Tax Man Cometh Anyway?
Image Description/Source: Berlin Wall, 1963; Roger We ran a video in late January about the concerns we had with Yahoo’s (YHOO) fair value uncertainty, and it turns out they weren’t unfounded (see video). One of our biggest issues surrounding the company was the potential tax ramifications of the spinoff of Alibaba shares (BABA) and whether ultimately the tax bill would land on shareholders’ laps. It turns out that it just might. Bloomberg reported May 19 that the IRS is considering a rule change that would “affect IRS rules for spinoffs by creating new US guidelines that might require a minimum size for active businesses inside the spun-off company.” As it stands right now, Yahoo’s spin-off is just an investment entity with no … Read more
Goodbye Radio Shack, Hello Office Products Behemoth
RadioShack will close its doors, while Staples and Office Depot are planning to tie the knot. 3D printing stocks may be in for a world of hurt in 2016, while GM and Ford benefit from strong employment and low gas prices. RadioShack (RSH) has finally defaulted on its debt. The company is reportedly in talks to sell half of its stores to Sprint (S) and close the remainder, should Amazon (AMZN) lose interest. Standard General, the largest shareholder in the archaic electronics retailer holds most all the cards, however, and we’ll soon see whether complete liquidation is in RadioShack’s future in the coming days. The sad reality is that the struggling electronics store chain may only have its real estate … Read more
Pain in Oil Not Likely To Subside Soon; Alibaba Disappoints
Just how bad are we drowning in crude oil? Yesterday’s inventory report showed the largest weekly supply increase in over 30 years, since 1982. That’s how bad. Yet, knowing that crude oil prices are driven by supply and demand, pundits continue to be optimistic, perhaps overly so, about the timing of the recovery in the price of the black liquid (USO). Let’s first start with OPEC, and the Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri, who said Tuesday that oil prices have bottomed as he “warned of a risk of a future price spike to $200 a barrel.” With inventories as they are and OPEC not ceding market share to US shale-based plays, we think the Secretary-General is drinking a bit too much Kool-aid. … Read more