Housing Market Very Strong But To “Face Two Contradicting Challenges”

Image Shown: The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has advanced ~ 24% year-to-date, according to data from YahooFinance. “Housing indicators may be leveling off,” per S&P Corelogic, and the threat of rising interest rates looms (as it has for years), but we like the fundamental strength that we’re seeing from the homebuilders of late, which has translated into strong equity performance. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve been bullish on the US housing market recovery since early 2012, and we’ve pointed to several factors as to why–including improved affordability, investment by both individuals and investors, falling unemployment, improved household formation, limited inventory, and more recently, the wealth effect that a rising stock market provides. Things continue to be on the … Read more

Homebuilders Report Nice 3Q; We’re Not Putting New Money to Work in Them

We’ve seen the recent hike in interest rates put a moderate dent in the upward trajectory of performance at Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) in their respective third quarters. This was also the case in PulteGroup’s (PHM) and M/I Homes’ (MHO) third quarter performance, which we will outline in this piece. However, recent trends in the average 30-year fixed rate, which hit a four-month low last week, may make fourth-quarter performance a bit better for the group than originally anticipated. Still, we’re not putting new money to work in the industry at this time on the basis of valuation. PulteGroup On Thursday, PulteGroup reported decent third-quarter results that showed strong revenue, growth, home selling-price expansion, and solid margin performance. … Read more