TSLA

Our Reports on Stocks in the Auto Making Industry

by

Image Source: HRYMX Structure of the Auto Manufacturers Industry The auto manufacturers industry is characterized by high fixed costs, substantial operating leverage, and intense competition. Vehicle sales are impacted by general economic conditions, which are largely out of the control of participants, and by the cost of credit and fuel. Excess capacity, price discounting and other marketing initiatives can pressure the top line, while rising raw material and labor costs can squeeze the bottom line. Changing consumer preferences in type, model and fuel-efficiency can cause abrupt shifts in market share. The structural characteristics of the group are very poor. For our automaker coverage, please click here.

Trump “Tweet Storm” Reveals Increased Frustration with Fed, China

by

— Markets are starting to look toppy. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — The markets are under heavy pressure Friday, August 23, as China escalated the trade war with new retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods (soybeans and autos), including a 5% tariff on U.S. crude oil prices. Removing the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio August 14 looks to have been a savvy move. Following the much-anticipated speech from Fed Chairman Powell today, President Trump responded with a series of tweets that showed tremendous frustration with the current situation. Here is the Twitter thread, reproduced below: — As usual, the Fed did NOTHING! It is incredible that they can “speak” without knowing or … Read more

Investors Aren’t Sold on Lear’s Ostensibly “Cheap” Valuation and Neither Are We

by

Image Shown: While Lear Corporation appears attractive at first glance, its technical performance tells a different story. The market is concerned that the global synchronized downturn that has emerged will get worse, which would weigh on Lear’s expected financial trajectory. Global automotive sales are already coming under pressure, and there’s not much Lear, as a leading auto parts supplier, can do about that. We think the market might be right on this one. By Callum Turcan On August 16, we updated our reports for the auto parts supplier industry and those updated reports can be accessed here. Lear Corporation (LEA) stood out right away. The company supplies auto parts to customers all around the world, namely electrical power management systems … Read more

How About the New Vette? General Motors Bouncing Back

by

Image Source: GM Chevrolet Next-Generation Corvette, 2020 Stingray revealed July 18 Shares of General Motors held up well in an otherwise weak market August 1 after posting a solid second quarter 2019 earnings report. By Callum Turcan A holding in both our Dividend Growth Newsletter and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolios, General Motors (GM) held up well August 1 after reporting a nice earnings beat with revenue coming in-line with consensus analyst estimates. GM’s North America division led the way, aided by its all-new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra offerings taking market share in the pickup truck market (according to third-party data cited by GM). GAAP revenue declined by 2% year-over-year and non-GAAP adjusted EBIT moved lower by 6%, but GM’s … Read more

Viewing Intrinsic Value as a Range of Outcomes: Tesla’s Margins Come Under Fire in Second Quarter, Shares Sell Off

by

By Callum Turcan On July 24, Tesla Inc (TSLA) posted second quarter 2019 earnings that did not go over well with investors. For starters, the electric vehicle maker’s company-wide GAAP gross margin tanked by ~100 basis points while Tesla’s ‘Automotive’ segment’s gross margin came in at 18.9% during the quarter, down ~170 basis points from 20.6% in the same period last year. This is entirely a result of Tesla ramping up production and deliveries of the less profitable Model 3 to meet demand while production and deliveries of its higher margin Model S/X move lower. Shares of TSLA are under considerable pressure as the market adjusted its long-term view of Tesla’s gross margins and ultimately future free cash flows. Here … Read more

Visa, Concentration Bets and Facebook’s Gift

by

Image: In late December, we increased the position in Facebook (FB) while shares were in the mid-$130s. The stock is up huge since then.     Order Value Trap here.    Hi everyone,   I’m still enjoying my get-away. It feels like it has been about 8 years since I’ve been able to totally tune out of the markets for a day or two, but here I am writing to you anyway. I really appreciate your being there. I really mean it. Today, I wanted to talk a little about concentration bets.   First, however, I want to emphasize the importance of diversification. I’m not going to go into the quantitative explanation, but rather, keep it really simple: it’s better … Read more

Hardcore: Tesla’s Stock May Collapse to Double Digits

by

Image: The Valuentum Buying Index almost called the top in Tesla’s shares. Whenever a CEO comes out saying that the company must engage in “hardcore” cost cutting, bad things happen. Morale is likely in the pits at the car company, and cost takeouts will probably cut more than just some excess fat. The downward spiral at Tesla has been in the works for many months now, but the writing is on the wall for a major disappointment that truly resets reality for shareholders. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — I’ve given CEO Elon Musk the benefit of the doubt. As a fellow founder and entrepreneur with skin in the game, I can understand some of the challenges that leaders face. … Read more

3M Plunges Toward Fair Value, More Earnings Reports

by

Several companies reported difficult earnings reports, including 3M, UPS, WWE, and Xilinx. No changes to the newsletter portfolios.    — In alphabetic order by ticker symbol: MMM, CMG, FCX, HSY, TSLA, UPS, WM, WWE, XLNX  —  3M (MMM): Our $175 fair value estimate remains unchanged following one of 3M’s worst quarterly reports in a long time. Not only did this industrial conglomerate miss both the top- and bottom-line in its first-quarter results April 25, but it also reduced its fiscal 2019 earnings guidance to the range of $9.25-$9.75 from $10.45-$10.90 previously, well below the consensus forecast. Clearly, the quarterly performance and outlook were poor, but 3M’s shares were also overpriced. The company finished the trading session down 13%. Enterprise valuation matters. The drop … Read more

Tesla and GameStop Face Selling Pressure After Notable Disappointments

by

Image Source: Kamil Murat Yılmaz Tesla reported a significant shortfall in its first quarter 2019 deliveries amid global distribution growing pains, which called in to question its ability to deliver on its reiterated guidance for 2019. Meanwhile, video game retailer GameStop continues to face challenges presented by headwinds beyond its control and expects its revenue contraction to accelerate in fiscal 2019. We’re not interested in shares of either company. By Kris Rosemann Tesla’s First Quarter Deliveries Disappoint, But Full Year Guidance Reiterated Electric car maker Tesla (TSLA) stumbled out of the open April 4 after its April 3 release of its first quarter 2019 deliveries figure, which came in markedly short of expectations. 63,000 deliveries in the quarter was more … Read more

Lyft Takes a Fall, S-1 Reads Like Business School Homework

by

Image Source: Lyft’s S-1 Reminiscences of the dot-com boom came back to the markets with the over-hyped initial public offering of Lyft, a stock that continues to get shellacked as its first days as a publicly-traded enterprise. Those that know Valuentum know that we wouldn’t touch such investments with a 10-foot pole. The company lost $43 per share in 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA Call me old school, but I’m surprised as to the widely-accepted nature of the business models of Lyft (LYFT) and Uber, and other ridesharing services. For those that don’t know Lyft, the company maintains “peer-to-peer marketplace for on-demand ridesharing,” and thus far has “facilitated over one billion rides,” according to its S-1 filing. It generates almost … Read more