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Taking a Look at Retail

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The first quarter earnings season for retail has certainly been a bit of a mixed bag. Two of the largest retailers in the US, Wal-Mart (click ticker for report: ) and Target (click ticker for report: ) reported negative same-store sales revealing cautious spending patterns from American consumers. On the other hand, home improvement giant Home Depot (click ticker for report: ) registered wonderful sales gains as the firm continues to ride the housing recovery. Let’s take a look at the results of some retailers leveraged to discretionary income. Urban Outfitters                                                Urban Outfitters (click ticker for report: ) posted a solid first quarter, even though its revenue was slightly lighter than expected. Revenue rose 14% year-over-year to $648 million, driving … Read more

More Retail Weakness—This Time It’s Target

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US retail powerhouse Target (click ticker for report: ) reported a mixed bag for its first quarter Wednesday morning, highlighting what seemed to be a difficult start to the calendar year for several retailers. Sales fell short of consensus estimates, growing just 1% year-over-year to $16.7 billion. Earnings per share, adjusted for several charges, were 5% lower than a year ago at $1.05, which was still slightly better than consensus expectations. Thanks to the sale of receivables, free cash flow totaled $2.3 billion. Consistent with what we saw from competitor Wal-Mart’s (click ticker for report: ) results, the core business in the US was relatively soft, with same-store sales falling 0.6% during the period. Overall sales were still 0.5% higher … Read more

Costco Outperforms Wal-Mart and Target

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Even as Wal-Mart (click ticker for report: ) remains challenged, wholesaler Costco (click ticker for report: ) continues to report strong results. Revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $24.8 billion, falling slightly short of consensus estimates. Earnings jumped 37% year-over-year to $1.24 per share, roughly in-line with consensus expectations. Earnings included a one-time $0.14 per share benefit, net of which earnings still grew 22% year-over-year. Although revenue growth was only 8%, membership revenue jumped 15% year-over-year to $528 million. Membership revenues are driven by fantastic renewal rates, which in the US and Canada totaled 93.9% for business memberships and 88.8% for Gold Star memberships. With renewals so strong, the company has been able to easily pass on price increases, saying: “Continued … Read more

Who’s Amazon’s Next Victim?

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An interesting white paper was released recently, analyzing how Amazon (click ticker for report: ) is altering the retail landscape. The paper itself had some interesting insights, but our favorite takeaway of Placed’s work was the top ten companies at risk. 1.    Bed Bath and Beyond (click ticker for report: ) 2.    PetSmart (click ticker for report: ) 3.    Toys ‘R Us 4.    Best Buy (click ticker for report: ) 5.    Sears (click ticker for report: ) 6.    Barnes & Noble (BKS) 7.    Kohl’s (click ticker for report: ) 8.    Target (click ticker for report: ) 9.    Costco (click ticker for report: ) 10. JC Penney (click ticker for report: ) For the most part, we agree with the list, … Read more

Target Remains Cautious on 2013; Shares Look Fairly Valued

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Retail powerhouse Target (click ticker for report: ) announced solid fourth quarter results Wednesday morning. Revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $22.3 billion, which fell short of consensus expectations. Earnings per share, when adjusted for expenses related to the Canadian rollout, grew 10% to $1.65, above consensus estimates. Though overall sales growth was solid, same-store sales increased only 0.4% year-over-year during the quarter. The results were a little worse than the growth we saw at Wal-Mart (click ticker for report: ) and also a little worse than the same-store sales growth rate we saw at Dollar Tree (click ticker for report: ), which we would attribute to consumers being very cautious with non-core purchases during the holiday season. In fact, management … Read more

Can Eddie Lampert Turn Around Sears?

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Earlier this week, Sears (click ticker for report: ) CEO Lou D’Ambrosio announced that he’ll resign from his position in February due to an illness in the family. Not so surprisingly, Sears chairman and hedge fund titan Eddie Lampert will be taking the reigns as CEO. Lampert, who merged Sears and Kmart several years ago, will be the chief executive for the first time, and as far as we can tell, he seems confident in his ability to turnaround the failing retailer. In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, Lampert cites Jeff Bezos’ success as a finance guy turned retailer leading Amazon (click ticker for report: ) as evidence that he can turn the dying company around. Although he hasn’t … Read more

Sales Surge at Family Dollar But Margins Miss the Mark

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Dollar store giant Family Dollar (click ticker for report: ) reported a mixed first quarter earlier this week. Revenue jumped 12.7% year-over-year to $2.4 billion, slightly above consensus expectations. However, earnings disappointed, increasing just a penny compared to a year ago, to $0.69 (which was well below consensus expectations). Driving sales traffic wasn’t an issue, as same-store sales jumped 6.6% year-over-year. However, the strength was driven by lower-margin consumables, which grew 18.5% from the same period a year ago. Cigarettes were specifically identified as pressuring margins, but management remains confident that selling cigarettes is an overall positive for the business. President and COO Michael Bloom specifically said on the conference call: “We don’t believe that cigarettes — the fact that … Read more

Dollar General Blames the Consumer for Weak Guidance

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Tuesday morning, value chain Dollar General (click ticker for report: ) reported stronger than expected results for its third quarter. Revenue rose 10% year-over-year to $4 billion, roughly in-line with consensus expectations. Earnings, adjusted for a one-time expense, jumped 26% year-over-year to $0.63 per share. During the third quarter, same-store sales grew 4% year-over-year, down compared to the second quarter, but still a fairly strong growth rate, in our view. The firm’s gross margin fell 10 basis points to 30.9%, though its operating margin increased 50 basis points to 9.1% due to strong cost containment. While the third quarter was relatively strong, management was cautious about the rest of the year. The company narrowed its earnings-per-share range to $2.82-$2.85 from … Read more

Sears Slide Continues

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Department store Sears (click ticker for report: ) continued its long decline during its third quarter, as evident from results Thursday afternoon. The company exceeded consensus revenue estimates, though revenue still fell 6% year-over-year to $8.9 billion. Earnings, adjusted for certain items, actually increased to a loss of $1.99, which was significantly better than consensus expectations. Though results were better than expected, the company’s deterioration continued during the quarter. Same-store sales growth was weak across the board, though we saw some signs of life from the Sears Domestic business. Same-store sales fell 1.6%, and management noted that net of consumer electronics, same-store sales would have increased. Appliances remain an area of strength due to the housing recovery, and management noted that apparel … Read more