SPY

This article was sent to members via email December 27. That email can be accessed via the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, With just an hour or two left in the trading session December 27, the Dow was down some 600 points. Incredibly, it ended up rallying into the close to finish up 260 points. Though there have been a few big intra-day reversals like this one in the past, there wasn’t much news at all today. The market simply rallied 850+ points off the bottom, and that was that. What’s more, this followed a 1,000+ point surge the day prior. If you recall, yesterday, we moved the cash positions in the simulated Best … Read more

This article was sent to members via email December 26. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, As you can probably tell, I’ve finally put my book behind me. It’s called Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. In it, I explain my story. I think after reading the text you’ll have a better understanding about why we champion the good calls we make and don’t let others tell our story. In this marketplace, there will be no shortage of people telling us that we’re wrong. They’ll be no shortage of people not giving us credit for our work. They’ll even be no shortage of people that will still say we’re … Read more

This article was sent to members via email December 26. That email can be accessed via the link that follows this article.  By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, How about a 1,000+ surge on the Dow today for some holiday cheer!  I can’t begin to tell about the outpouring of support our firm received from member emails recently. It’s always great to have such a loyal subscriber base, and I can’t thank you enough for that. Some of you keep passing along thoughts to make Valuentum better, and I cannot begin to tell you how much I appreciate that.   That said, now is the time to stay focused, and we think laser-focused is the best way to describe our views … Read more

This article was sent to members via email December 25. That email can be accessed via the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA What a beautiful time of the year. I’m writing to you from Gatlinburg, Tennessee, in the beautiful Smoky Mountains. I know it’s easy to have anxiety about the markets, but please be sure to find time to spend with friends and family this holiday season. Money, we can make more of. Time, we cannot. May you and yours have a blessed holiday season. Christmas Eve was another market rout. Secretary Treasury Steven Mnuchin tried to ease the market’s concerns by ensuring that the biggest of the banks had sufficient liquidity. This is textbook policy in the … Read more

This article was sent to members via email December 23. You can access that email at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Many of you may be just checking your account statements or retirement account balances and might be a little disappointed for what might become the worst December return in the stock markets since the 1930s.This has certainly been a December to remember, but not for good reasons. Though things look bleak heading into the remaining days of 2018 and into 2019, there’s really no need to panic at all. For those following the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, it’s easy to be disappointed with ideas such as Facebook and Johnson & Johnson, but you’re missing … Read more

Image Source: TradingView.com This article was sent to members via email December 21. You can access that email at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning folks, Boy is it good to be back in the full swing of things.  Writing Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation took almost everything out of me the past few months, but it was absolutely necessary. This book challenges the greatest thinkers in finance, and its 350 pages are chock-full of footnotes and examples, complete with a Preface, Notes, Bibliography and 18-page index. I think you’re going to love it, and what’s more, if you have questions about it, you can reach out to me for further explanation! Yesterday was another … Read more

Image Source: TradingView.com This article was sent to members via email December 18. You can access that email via the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I’m getting a bit concerned about the technical backdrop of the market, and while fundamentals certainly aren’t poor, it is changes in future fundamental *expectations* that drive prices.  My book will hammer this point home: if the conversation is about last year’s data and not about how you arrived at your fair value estimate, efforts are lost before they begin. In evaluating the past data, often ambiguous valuation multiples, you’re evaluating something that is non-causal to returns, and therefore cannot be predictive of returns. Future expectations of enterprise free … Read more