PCLN

Priceline Shares Under Pressure… Again

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By Kris Rosemann Priceline (PCLN) reported solid first quarter 2016 results May 4, but the company has since been punished. The past few years have been a roller-coaster ride for shares, but the company has always seemed to bounce back after issuing “disappointing” guidance. Investors will likely never be fans of the conservative guidance issuing style of the company, and that’s okay. Both Priceline’s gross travel bookings, net of cancellations, and gross profit grew 21% from the year-ago period in the quarter, and the firm’s gross profit rate expanded nearly 2 percentage points from the first quarter of 2015. Adjusted EBITDA advanced at an even more impressive rate, jumping 27% on a year-over-year basis, and non-GAAP income per diluted share … Read more

Terrorist Activity Tramples Travel Stocks; FBI Says Can Hack iPhone

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In what have unfortunately become seemingly more frequent occurrences, terrorist activity across the globe appears to be proliferating. The latest, three explosions in the Belgium capital of Brussels, have taken the lives of at least 34 individuals, while wounding as many as 170 more, according to CNN and the Belgian media. Twenty were killed at the Maalbeek metro station while 14 more were killed at Brussels’ international airport, and while at the time of this writing, there has been “no official claim of responsibility,” ISIS appears to be most likely responsible for the terror, tweeting that “What will be coming is worse,” CNN reporting. The events March 22 come only a few short months after the terrorist attacks that rocked … Read more

Alerts! Adding to PCLN & CSCO on Strength; Initiating KMI

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Good morning. We were met February 17 with some fantastic news from Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Priceline (PCLN), which is trading up over 10% at the time of this writing, to $1,230 per share, following a fourth-quarter earnings beat, where it exceeded the bottom line consensus estimate by more than $0.80 per share. Though recent unfortunate news regarding terrorist activity across the globe has given pause to sentiment with respect to travel-oriented stocks, the collapse in crude oil prices and distillates (jet fuel) may be stimulating incremental demand in light of the reduced cost of vacationing. We’ll be roughly doubling our position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio at the prevailing price, to a 3.5% weighting. Priceline’s bookings growth … Read more

More Market Weakness: We Haven’t Hit Bottom Yet

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Global equity markets are falling yet again February 11, in part due to cautious comments from US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen about the health of the global economy and the legality/efficaciousness of negative interest rates, “Dividend Growth ‘Bubble’ To Continue But For How Long? (Feb 2016).” Market onlookers continue to fear that the Fed has nothing left to give, “out of ammunition,” with the tank of accommodative policy empty, and it might just be. To us, however, the news flow is more of the same. The world continues to be awash in crude oil (USO), and many are now starting to think that what was once mostly an oversupply problem is now being compounded by a demand problem as … Read more

What’s Working in Today’s Market?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA As emerging markets around the world suffer from commodity-price-led economic weakness, capital continues to find a safe-haven in US government bonds (TLT, TBT), but for those equity-oriented funds that mandate a fully-invested status, not something we’re particularly advocates of, assets within US equities have favored “lower-beta” utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) sectors while cyclically-dependent and credit-levered sectors such as the financials (XLF) and materials (XLB) have suffered thus far in 2016. The industrials (XLI) and energy (XLE) sectors have also encountered higher-than-normal selling pressure in the first few weeks of the New Year, as investors evaluate the global economic landscape and what a prolonged period of low energy prices may mean for the lowest quality … Read more

Analysis: The Best Ideas Portfolio

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Please select the image below to download the report.  Note: The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are not real money portfolios. Results, including those in the Nelson Exclusive publication, are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and actual results may differ from simulated information being presented.  The performance of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, Nelson Exclusive publication, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have not been externally audited. The following download of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is an internal assessment. Newsletter performance figures, including those in the Nelson Exclusive publication, are prepared by Valuentum. Hypothetical results are … Read more

Investors Punish Priceline for Conservative Guidance

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This isn’t the first time this year Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Priceline (PCLN) has been punished by investors for issuing weak guidance after a strong quarter (see our first-quarter piece). The strength of the US dollar played an important role in the weakness of the firm’s performance, but we didn’t see any material fundamental deterioration in its operations in the company’s third-quarter results, reported November 9. Gross travel bookings at Priceline grew ~22% in constant currency and 7% as reported to $14.8 billion in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis. The strength was driven by its international operations, where gross travel bookings grew 25% in constant currency. The company’s global accommodation business booked a record 116 million room … Read more

The Priceline Group Soars!!!

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It’s difficult to be patient with new ideas, and we understand. But the efficacy of the Valuentum Buying Index in picking winners continues to be a big head-turner. The methodology’s batting average—or the number of ideas that “work out”—is among the best of any systematic process that we’ve seen (if not the best), and we point to the logic behind its conceptual underpinnings as to the reasons why. The Valuentum Buying Index, which combines valuation and technical/momentum indicators, hits at the heart of what makes a good equity investment idea. Companies that we think are undervalued and ones in which the market also believes are undervalued—i.e. stocks whose shares are moving higher—should, by definition, be top performers. After all, the … Read more

Best Ideas Newsletter Holdings Surge

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It’s hard for us to not be able to recommend stocks to you. That’s not what we do. We’re not a financial advisor, so we can never tell you what to buy or sell. This is not only the responsible thing to do, but it is also the law. We can’t possibly know your personal financial goals or risk tolerances. We do our best, however, to highlight our business analysis and the market mispricings that we see. Stocks that we pound the table on are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Stocks that we like as dividend growth ideas are included in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We’ll be adopting a new designation for these companies in lieu of … Read more

Priceline Sets Up for Second-Quarter Beat

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Priceline.com (PCLN) is a 1.8% weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The global online hotel reservation leader turned heads when it reported first-quarter results May 7, but it was Priceline.com’s conservative outlook that traders decided to focus on instead. Frankly, we’re not too concerned with the company’s “soft” second-quarter guidance, and we point to significant fundamental outperformance in the first quarter as to why. We’re not going to punish the company for being conservative in the midst of significantly volatile foreign-exchange conditions. First-quarter gross travel bookings at Priceline.com advanced 26% on a constant-currency basis and 12% on a reported basis year-over year. That’s not bad, especially since management had guided to growth in the range of 2%-9% for the … Read more