LTD

American Eagle and the Difficulty of Investing in Teen Retailers

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Monday after the market close, teen retailer American Eagle (click ticker for report: ) reduced its second quarter earnings outlook. After a relatively weak first quarter, the firm was generally optimistic about its prospects heading into the second quarter, predicting flat same-store sales and earnings per share of $0.19-$0.21. However, earlier this week the firm said earnings per share will now be closer to $0.10 for the second quarter, a decline of 50% compared to the same period a year ago. Same-store sales that were predicted to be flat will actually be down 7% year-over-year (compared to 8% growth in the same period a year ago). Thus, same-store sales are only about 1% higher than they were two years ago.   … Read more

December Retail Sales Roundup

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Let’s take a look at retailers that still report monthly results. Nordstrom Nordstrom’s (click ticker for report: ) December was strong as usual, with same-store sales jumping 8.6% and total sales increasing 9.4%. We saw some weakness from the full-line Nordstrom store in November, but that trend was reversed by an 8.2% same-store sales gain in December. Nordstrom Rack continued to post fantastic results, with an 8.1% jump in same-store sales for December. All retailers benefitted from a more favorable calendar compared to 2011, but we think Nordstrom’s execution was strong regardless. Nordstrom continues to be among our favorite multi-line retailers, but we think its shares are fairly valued at current levels. Unlike other retailers, we aren’t worried about gross … Read more

November Retail Sales Disappoint

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Without question, November retail sales numbers have been lackluster. Although the number of retailers that report monthly sales figures continues to decline, let’s take a look at some of the interesting insights we saw from those that still report numbers. Kohl’s Even though we’re fairly bearish on Kohl’s (click ticker for report: ) over the long term, we did not expect the fourth quarter to start off so poorly. Same-store sales fell 5.6% year-over-year, lapping a 6.2% decline during the same period in 2011. Total sales fell 4.9%, and the company continues to lose momentum. The firm blamed Hurricane Sandy and recognizing e-commerce sales in December as the major drivers of weakness, but we think the results highlight how poorly … Read more

October Retail Roundup

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During October, the US consumer remained resilient while much of corporate America stagnated in anticipation of the presidential election and the looming fiscal cliff. Let’s take a look at retail sales results for the month. Nordstrom Nordstrom (click ticker for report: ) continues to be a standout performer in the luxury retail space, with October same-store sales surging 9.8% year-over-year. Nordstrom Rack continued to outperform the traditional stores, growing 10.5% year-over-year compared to 10.2% for traditional stores. We remain huge supporters of the firm’s expansion plans, and we believe its execution is unbeatable in the retailer industry. Nevertheless, we believe shares are fairly valued. Gap Gap’s (click ticker for report: ) October results weren’t quite as strong as September results, … Read more

Valuentum’s Comprehensive Report on Retail Brands

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Key Takeaways ·        Valuentum sees four major brand segments o   Ultra-Luxury §  Richemont, Burberry, LVMH, Gucci (Kering), Chanel, Hermes §  Rich heritage brands, economically resilient consumer o   Luxury §  Marc Jacobs, Tory Burch, Ralph Lauren, Tiffany §  Valuable brands, semi-strong barriers to entry o   Aspirational §  Michael Kors, Marc by Marc Jacobs, Coach, North Face §  Popular with younger consumers, strong brand loyalty o   Established §  Nike, Adidas, Under Armour, lululemon, PVH, Express §  Price competitive, exposed to fashion ·        Our favorite dividend idea: Coach ·        Fallen Stars: Guess, Bebe ·        Valuentum’s Take: Brand value is only part of the investment equation Branding has been a powerful force in both marketing and investing for the past century. Companies work hard … Read more