KSS

The Twilight Zone: JC Penney and Best Buy Report Better-Than-Feared Performance

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Shares of JC Penney (JCP) and Best Buy (BBY) are currently engaging in a classic “dead cat bounce” with the equity prices of both firms experiencing modest appreciation after reporting their respective fourth-quarter results recently. JC Penney is trading just over $7 per share, down from about $70 per share in 2007, while Best Buy is hovering at about $27 per share, down from more than $40 per share, a level achieved only a few months ago. We continue to believe both companies are far from healthy. What’s the news that has JC Penney’s shares spiking to $7 and change? The firm reported a loss per share of $0.68 in its fourth-quarter report, released February 26, beating estimates that had … Read more

Lampert May Be Bailing on Sears; J.C. Penney’s November Comps Showed Life

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A Schedule 13D filed by Sears (SHLD) Monday showed that CEO Eddie Lampert had cut his equity stake in the beleaguered retailer to 48.5% from a prior 55.4%. Certainly this is not reassuring the markets as recent channel checks showed further deterioration in the company’s comparable store sales trends during November. Sears is struggling to remain relevant in today’s retail environment, and Lampert’s recent selling isn’t sitting well with us about the retailer’s sustainability as an entity. The firm’s third-quarter results were atrocious, and the holiday shopping season appears to be shaping up as equally poor for Sears. J.C. Penney (JCP) made headlines Tuesday on what initially seemed to be positive news: the company’s comparable store sales grew more than … Read more

Surveying 3Q Performance Across the Retail Spectrum

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Sears There’s not much to say about Sears’ (SHLD) operational performance during its third quarter (results issued Thursday), except that it was atrocious. The firm lost more money in the most recently-reported quarter ($534 million) than it did through the first nine months of last fiscal year ($441 million). CEO Eddie Lampert has his hands full with the company’s multi-year transformation, but we think investors are hanging on to shares largely on hopes the firm will be able to monetize its real-estate portfolio in the future. Image Source: Sears But it seems that (lately) too many investors have been buying into this line of thinking, and the ‘real estate’ thesis continues to proliferate among investor psyches, particularly (now) with J.C. … Read more

Macy’s Posts Solid 3Q; Enters 4Q with Strength

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On Wednesday, Macy’s (M) reported excellent third-quarter results. Comparable store sales leapt 3.5% in the quarter, while quarterly earnings jumped 31%, to $0.47 per share. Macy’s continues to execute in its key strategies—My Macy’s localization initiative (which launched across the nation in 2009), Omnichannel integration and Magic Selling (which requires a more rigorous training for new sales associates)—and noted that it saw improvement in the sales trend in every region of the country. Operating income advanced 10.8% from the same period a year ago, as the firm’s operating margin improved to 5.7% from 5.4%. Net cash from operating activities was $819 million and capital spending was $381 million, resulting in free cash flow of $438 million in the period, or … Read more

J.C. Penney: Equity Offering Shows Desperation; Shares Score a 1 on the VBI; Lights Out by Mid-2014?

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With sales declining precipitously and bankruptcy looking like a real possibility, we have materially lowered our equity fair value estimate on retailer J.C. Penney (click ticker for report: ) to $3 per share. The firm now scores a 1 on the Valuentum Buying Index, and we’re avoiding shares at all costs in the portfolio of our Best Ideas Newsletter. Why Now? We haven’t liked J.C. Penney since former CEO Ron Johnson’s plan showed signs it clearly wasn’t working, and we have consistently maintained that Penney’s business model was obsolete and doomed to fail over the long term, even before Johnson made changes. Still, earlier this year, the firm improved its liquidity position when it raised over $2 billion in cash via debt with an interest … Read more

The Race to the Bottom

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This week, infamous American department stores JC Penney (click ticker for report: ) and Sears (click ticker report: ) reported terrible second-quarter results. Let’s take a closer look at these failing former industry giants. JC Penney JC Penney continues to suffer from Ron Johnson’s strategy change and subsequent removal. Total sales declined 11.9% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, while the firm lost $2.16 per share on an adjusted basis. Both metrics fell short of consensus estimates. The firm burned through $1.1 billion in free cash during the quarter and has posted negative free cash flow of $2.1 billion year-to-date. The situation at JC Penney continues to be incredibly uncertain, particularly after activist shareholder Bill Ackman resigned from the board of directors … Read more

Which Department Store Looks Attractive?

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Our fundamental view on the department store industry hasn’t changed much after the second quarter. Kohl’s sales gains were surprising, but if we look at the two-year trend of stacked comps (last year’s quarter plus this year’s quarter), Nordstrom continues to easily outperform its peers. Source: Valuentum Ultimately, we believe improving margins in the department store industry will be difficult. Even if a firm is able to gain some additional gross margin, investments in technology will likely increase capital spending. Overall, we view the cohort as fairly valued. Fundamentally, we think Macy’s will continue to outperform Kohl’s due to its superior online shopping experience, but Nordstrom appears to have the most growth opportunities as it looks to expand on the … Read more

Don’t Be Fooled by Kohl’s Earnings “Beat”

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Shares of department store chain Kohl’s (click ticker for report: ) surged Thursday after the company reported better than anticipated earnings for its first quarter. Revenue at the retailer fell 1% year-over-year to $4.2 billion as same-store sales declined 1.9%. Earnings per share increased 5% year-over-year to $0.66, exceeding consensus estimates as the share count shrunk. Conversely, free cash flow declined 29% year-over-year to $170 million as the company did not increase its accounts payable as aggressively as it did in the first quarter of the prior year. We suspect some of the optimism surrounding Kohl’s first quarter centers around a slight improvement in gross margins, which increased 50 basis points year-over-year to 36.4%. Management pointed to lower sourcing costs … Read more

Who’s Amazon’s Next Victim?

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An interesting white paper was released recently, analyzing how Amazon (click ticker for report: ) is altering the retail landscape. The paper itself had some interesting insights, but our favorite takeaway of Placed’s work was the top ten companies at risk. 1.    Bed Bath and Beyond (click ticker for report: ) 2.    PetSmart (click ticker for report: ) 3.    Toys ‘R Us 4.    Best Buy (click ticker for report: ) 5.    Sears (click ticker for report: ) 6.    Barnes & Noble (BKS) 7.    Kohl’s (click ticker for report: ) 8.    Target (click ticker for report: ) 9.    Costco (click ticker for report: ) 10. JC Penney (click ticker for report: ) For the most part, we agree with the list, … Read more

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: Macy’s, Kohl’s and JC Penney

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The fourth quarter is easily the most important quarter for retailers, and we saw winners and losers surface. The fortunes couldn’t have been more different, so let’s take a look at the results of the department stores. The Good: Macy’s Macy’s (click ticker for report: ) fourth quarter was among the best of the department stores, if we exclude performance from higher-end Nordstrom (click ticker for report: ). Macy’s took advantage of JC Penney’s (click ticker for report: ) movement away from discounting to run several promotional sales, which drove revenue growth of 7% year-over-year to $9.4 billion during the quarter (with one extra week of sales). Earnings, net of one-time expenses, increased 21% year-over-year to $2.05 per share, easily … Read more