FM

Exxon Mobil Puts on a Brave Face

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Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – November 2019 Guyana IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Near-term oil prices and most importantly, the oil price futures curve, have improved materially since just a couple of months ago when it looked like the sky was falling. For the first time ever, WTI turned negative in April 2020 for physical deliveries due May 2020 of light sweet oil to Cushing, Oklahoma, as storage options were limited (and arguably, many speculators had jumped into the market not fully aware of the risks they were taking on). Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has seen its share price recover considerably since the drop, though we caution that management’s commitment to the dividend will prove a hard task if … Read more

Oil Markets Get Decimated

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Image Shown: Oil prices have been decimated year-to-date. By Callum Turcan We are following up on our ‘Oil Prices Collapse, Reiterating 2,350-2,750 S&P 500 Target Range; Credit Crunch Looming?’ note (link here) published Sunday, March 8, to provide additional commentary on what’s going on in the shale patch right now. As of this writing, oil prices (BNO, USO) continue to get hammered. Here’s what we had to say in that recent note: The independent upstream producer space (XOP) is careening off a cliff, and that was before the OPEC+ cartel was unable to reach an agreement during their joint meeting (OPEC and non-OPEC members) on March 6. Due to the inability for the oil cartel to reach a deal, largely because Russia … Read more

Covering Oil Markets Ahead of the Upcoming OPEC/OPEC+ Meetings

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Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – 2019 IR Presentation  By Callum Turcan On March 5, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (‘OPEC’) is holding an “extraordinary” meeting in Vienna, Austria (EWO), which will be followed up by a ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC members the next day. The group had already agreed to cut oil (USO, BNO) supplies by an additional 0.5 million barrels of per day (‘bpd’) back in December 2019 through an agreement that would last through March 2020 (that was on top of an existing deal to keep 1.2 million bpd off of the market which runs through the end of March 2020 as well). As part of that deal, Saudi Arabia (KSA) offered to “voluntarily” … Read more

Historic Oil Deal Reached

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Image Source: Chevron Corporation (CVX) – March 2020 Security Analyst Meeting Presentation By Callum Turcan Over the Easter holiday weekend, members from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (‘OPEC’), non-OPEC members that are part of the OPEC+ group (countries that in the recent past have joined forces with OPEC to curtail global oil supplies in a formal manner), and non-OPEC members outside of the OPEC+ group such as Brazil (EWZ), Canada (EWC), and the United States (SPY) came to an agreement to cut their collective oil output by north of 10 million barrels per day. Global oil and other raw energy resource prices (USO, BNO) have been simply demolished year-to-date due to a combination of demand destruction from the ongoing … Read more

Our Thoughts on Chevron Buying Noble Energy

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Image Shown: An overview of Chevron Corporation’s all-stock acquisition of Noble Energy Inc that was announced in July 2020. Image Source: Chevron Corporation – July 2020 Noble Energy Acquisition Presentation By Callum Turcan On July 20, Chevron Corporation (CVX) announced it was acquiring Noble Energy Inc (NBL) through a $5.0 billion all-stock transaction, or $13.0 billion when factoring in net debt and the book value of non-controlling interests. Shareholders of Noble Energy will receive approximately 0.12 share of Chevron for each share of Noble Energy. At the time the deal was announced, shareholders of NBL were receiving a ~12% premium based on the ten-day average closing stock prices. Chevron intends to issue ~58 million shares to cover the deal, keeping … Read more