EBAY

The Puzzling Attack on Alibaba

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A large publisher ran a negative article on Alibaba (BABA) last weekend, “Alibaba: Why It Could Fall 50% Further (1)” As the article has successfully struck fear into the hearts of US investors in light of ongoing Chinese market collapse, it has also successfully hurt Alibaba’s stock. There are a few things that we think are worth emphasizing that were lacking in the piece. 1) Alibaba is significantly free cash flow positive. Unlike the many Internet sensations of the late 1990s and early 2000s that were burning through millions and millions of cash every quarter, Alibaba is significantly free cash flow positive (cash flow from operations less all capex). In the June quarter alone, assuming a USD-to-RMB exchange rate of … Read more

3 Observations

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Bulls raged back in a big way during the week of trading ending August 28 to erase some of the massive losses experienced from the May 2015 highs of 2,013 on the S&P 500. Though no longer staring down at 1,800, the S&P 500 still closed comfortably shy of 2,000. No matter what next week will bring, almost everybody is expecting more volatility. Could this then mean that we’re back to normal? The market has a very interesting way of disappointing the majority of investors the majority of the time. Here are 3 observations that are worth noting. 1. The Fed Doesn’t Have the Right Data…Yet The stark reality is one of two things: a) either the Fed knows exactly what’s going on … Read more

New Adds: One Name at a Deep Discount and Another Long-time Favorite

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Shown above: The carnage in the S&P 500. One of the most important measures that we strive to portray is balance. In our recent writings, we’ve demonstrated a very bearish slant on recent developments, and we still hold those views, but our actions within the newsletter portfolios are also very important in understanding how we react to such views. As we’ve outlined many a time before, global economic developments and US equity markets are not always inextricably linked, meaning that there could be times–seemingly more often than not–when the economy is heading south and equity markets hold up fairly well or even advance, and vice versa. Part of the core Valuentum process, however, centers on finding undervalued stocks and letting … Read more

Dark Days Ahead for Walmart?

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It was widely-reported that Amazon (AMZN) had unseated Walmart (WMT) as the largest broad-based retailer by market capitalization a few weeks ago, and the latter’s second-quarter fiscal 2016 results, released August 18, spoke to the very real risks that the avalanche of social change is having on its business. From what we can gather, Walmart is at the center of a political upheaval in America that is challenging its business model. The company has become the poster child for all of what many workers believe is unfair pay, and such a tainted perception, fair or not, will be difficult to overcome as the ranks of millennials swell and demand their definition of “a living wage” after suffering through a very … Read more

Keeping Both eBay and PayPal after Split

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eBay (EBAY) and PayPal (PYPL) are no longer the same company. As we had previewed in the pre-split piece, once shares of eBay and PayPal started trading individually, shares of legacy eBay fell and PayPal soared. But that’s merely semantics. At the end of the day, eBay and PayPal had jumped a combined 4%+, and we continue to believe both are underpriced. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio will be updated to factor in the split-up upon publishing of the August edition on the 15th. We plan to update our 16-page report on eBay and launch independent coverage of PayPal following its first full quarter as a standalone entity. Let’s walk through their last quarterly results as a combined entity to … Read more

eBay – PayPal Split

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Under previous but subsiding pressure from Carl Icahn and other shareholders, eBay (EBAY) announced last September that it would separate its payments business PayPal in July of this year. Now that July is here, we wanted to remind members of the split and explain what it means for the holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. On July 17, eBay shareholders will receive one share of PayPal under the ticker PYPL for each share of eBay owned. We will be launching coverage of PayPal shortly after it becomes an independent, publicly-traded company. The separation of eBay and PayPal will make eBay leaner and more efficient while greatly increasing the potential for expansion of PayPal within the booming mobile payments market. … Read more

Williams’ Rejection, Medtronic’s Hike, eBay’s Sale, and Hershey’s Disappointment

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Williams Companies Rejects Offer from Energy Transfer Equity Natural gas pipeline company Williams Companies (WMB) has seen shares jump after Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) confirmed reports that it had made a bid to acquire the company. Despite the all-equity offer of $64 per share representing a 32% premium to Williams’ June 19 closing price, the offer was rejected by the firm as significantly too low. ETE has made multiple attempts to talk with Williams’ management about a possible merger in the past half year, and ETE has said its offer is contingent on the abortion of Williams’ pending purchase of Williams Partners (WPZ). The initial offer came on May 19, six days after Williams Companies announced it would buy Williams … Read more

eBay Is Over $60 Per Share, Breaking Out

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I wanted to update members on eBay (EBAY), but let’s cover some ground on the (V)aluentum (B)uying (I)ndex first. The Valuentum Buying Index, or VBI, rating system is not the easiest to understand. There are as many stock-selection methodologies out there as there are fund managers and financial advisors. We’re talking tens of thousands, if not more. What we focus on within the Valuentum Buying Index framework is what matters. You may hear a fund manager talk about ROE, for example. But what you may not know is that ROE is inferior to ROIC because the former considers an artificial and non-operating boost from the application of financial leverage. We talked about this in the four-part education workshop here. Firms … Read more

Yet Another Best Ideas Portfolio Holding Surges!

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Best Ideas portfolio holding eBay (EBAY) reported excellent first-quarter results, and shares are surging today. We’ve profiled the company many a time before, and it has been in the Best Ideas portfolio for a couple years now, doubling the cost basis. Approaching $60 per share, this story is far from over, and we’re expecting continued value realization following the eBay-PayPal split. The hot hand continues. eBay’s landing page >>