DLTR

Dollar General’s Outlook A Little Light; Could Consolidation Be Brewing in the Dollar Store Space?

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The retail discount store industry (or the dollar-store industry) provides consumable basic needs to customers primarily in the low- and middle-income brackets. More than one third of the industry’s customers live in households that earn less than $20,000 per year, making the group’s results counter-cyclical–as more households generate lower income due to poor economic conditions, store growth and same-store-sales opportunities increase. Still, competition is fierce among constituents and with many other retailers, including grocery stores. But given the niche low-price strategy of participants and their counter-cyclical nature, we tend to like the group.  Dollar General (DG) has been operating at a level higher than that of its dollar-store peers, but its outlook for fiscal year 2014, released in its fourth … Read more

What a Week in Retail: Some Good, Mostly Bad

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The week ending January 10 brought a plethora of news that confirmed our fears: promotional activity during the shortened holiday shopping season of 2013 wasn’t just bad, it was cutthroat. Many retailers were left unable to recover from the ice and winter storms that ravaged much of the US during December/early January. Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) Five Below (FIVE), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN), Sears (SHLD) and Zumiez (ZUMZ) all revealed difficult performance during the period. The variant business models of the aforementioned retailers suggest weakness was widespread. Surprisingly, even discount retailing giant Family Dollar (FDO) wasn’t able to lower prices enough to keep customers in the stores. No category seemed to be spared. Needless to say, we’re not expecting much … Read more

Surveying the Retail Landscape: Dollar General, Kroger, and Costco

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On Thursday, Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) and Costco (COST) reported quarterly results. Dollar General’s third-quarter report showed same-store sales advancing 4.4%, which propelled total sales 10.5% higher during its third quarter (ending November 1). Kroger’s third-quarter report showed 3.5% identical supermarket sales growth, without fuel, during the period ending November 9, while Costco’s fiscal first-quarter results (ending December 1) revealed same-store sales expansion of 3% during the quarter. Dollar General’s quarterly performance not only bested that of Kroger and Costco, but it also stood head-and-shoulders above that of Wal-Mart (WMT), which reported a comparable store sales decline in Walmart US and only a 1.1% increase at Sam’s club, and Target’s (TGT) third-quarter performance, where US comparable store sales advanced only … Read more

Surveying 3Q Performance Across the Retail Spectrum

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Sears There’s not much to say about Sears’ (SHLD) operational performance during its third quarter (results issued Thursday), except that it was atrocious. The firm lost more money in the most recently-reported quarter ($534 million) than it did through the first nine months of last fiscal year ($441 million). CEO Eddie Lampert has his hands full with the company’s multi-year transformation, but we think investors are hanging on to shares largely on hopes the firm will be able to monetize its real-estate portfolio in the future. Image Source: Sears But it seems that (lately) too many investors have been buying into this line of thinking, and the ‘real estate’ thesis continues to proliferate among investor psyches, particularly (now) with J.C. … Read more

Family Dollar’s “Upside” Surprise Wasn’t Great

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Off-priced retailer Family Dollar (click ticker for report: ) reported stronger-than-anticipated third quarter results Wednesday morning, led by strong sales of consumables. Revenue at the discount chain increased 9% year-over-year to $2.6 billion, roughly in-line with consensus expectations. Earnings per share actually declined a penny to $1.05, but that figure was better than the consensus estimates which called for a steeper decline. Free cash flow stands at a negative $275 million year-to-date as the company invests heavily in expanding and renovating its store base. The company has engaged in numerous sale-leaseback transactions, so the increase in capital spending has not materially drained the firm’s coffers. Taking a closer look at the numbers, we can see that the quarter was not … Read more

Dollar Tree’s Strong Fourth Quarter Quells Fears in the Sector

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Wednesday morning, discount retailer Dollar Tree (click ticker for report: ) announced solid fourth quarter results. Revenue jumped 15% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, slightly above consensus estimates. Earnings also exceeded consensus expectations, up 26% year-over-year to $1.01 per share. Same-store sales at the chain increased 2.4% during the quarter, reflecting broad-based geographic and category space. Not surprisingly, comps accelerated in December as the firm’s value proposition drove holiday shoppers into the store. The firm also expanded its frozen goods selection, which was put into 329 new stores in 2012. Management indicated that the company plans on equipping more stores with refrigeration capabilities, which could add incremental higher-margin sales. Gross margins were 10 basis points higher year-over-year during the fourth quarter … Read more

Target Remains Cautious on 2013; Shares Look Fairly Valued

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Retail powerhouse Target (click ticker for report: ) announced solid fourth quarter results Wednesday morning. Revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $22.3 billion, which fell short of consensus expectations. Earnings per share, when adjusted for expenses related to the Canadian rollout, grew 10% to $1.65, above consensus estimates. Though overall sales growth was solid, same-store sales increased only 0.4% year-over-year during the quarter. The results were a little worse than the growth we saw at Wal-Mart (click ticker for report: ) and also a little worse than the same-store sales growth rate we saw at Dollar Tree (click ticker for report: ), which we would attribute to consumers being very cautious with non-core purchases during the holiday season. In fact, management … Read more

Dollar General Blames the Consumer for Weak Guidance

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Tuesday morning, value chain Dollar General (click ticker for report: ) reported stronger than expected results for its third quarter. Revenue rose 10% year-over-year to $4 billion, roughly in-line with consensus expectations. Earnings, adjusted for a one-time expense, jumped 26% year-over-year to $0.63 per share. During the third quarter, same-store sales grew 4% year-over-year, down compared to the second quarter, but still a fairly strong growth rate, in our view. The firm’s gross margin fell 10 basis points to 30.9%, though its operating margin increased 50 basis points to 9.1% due to strong cost containment. While the third quarter was relatively strong, management was cautious about the rest of the year. The company narrowed its earnings-per-share range to $2.82-$2.85 from … Read more