AMR

Caterpillar’s Pricing Power Remains Phenomenal

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Image: Price realization remains a key driver behind Caterpillar’s strong performance. On October 31, Caterpillar (CAT) reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, with revenue advancing 12% and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share handily beating the consensus forecast. Caterpillar continues to benefit from significant pricing power, but the firm is also experiencing volume increases. The firm’s adjusted operating profit margin expanded to 20.8% in the third quarter compared to 16.5% for the third quarter of 2022. Caterpillar ended the third quarter with $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, short-term borrowings of ~$4.2 billion, and long-term debt of ~$1 billion and ~$7.6 billion in its ‘Machinery, Energy & Transportation’ and ‘Financial Products’ divisions, respectively. Its balance sheet, while not showcasing a net cash … Read more

Raising Our Fair Value Estimate of Dividend Aristocrat Caterpillar

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Image: Caterpillar’s financial momentum is impressive. Image Source: Caterpillar By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve raised our fair value estimate of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) to $238 per share from $192 previously. As witnessed in Deere & Company’s (DE) fiscal fourth-quarter results, too, Caterpillar is driving considerable pricing expansion across its portfolio, and the impact on its financials has been quite impressive. Though not an idea in any newsletter portfolio, Caterpillar’s shares yield ~2% at the time of this writing, slightly better than the average S&P 500 company. The company is proud to be a Dividend Aristocrat. When Caterpillar reported third-quarter 2022 results back in October, the company recorded a 21% increase in revenue while adjusted profit per share leapt to $3.95 … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Major Airlines Industry

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Image Source: Cory Hatchel Structure of the Major Airlines Industry The airline industry has undergone meaningful changes since the beginning of the last decade. The painful restructuring by most of the legacy carriers via Chapter 11, significant consolidation by the majors, the introduction of ancillary revenue streams, and the ongoing efforts to rightsize capacity to slow weakening real yields are but a few. Though unarguably these are steps in the right direction, airlines remain shackled to the very poor structural characteristics of their industry, which has sent more to bankruptcy than any other in our coverage. Airline stocks should be viewed as merely speculative bets. We have dropped coverage of the Major Airlines industry.

Why Some Investors Fail — Worms!

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Image Source: crabchick. 

When you read our research, we’re not just providing financial metrics — Valuentum is striving to provide an answer to the most important question in investing: what is a company worth? Though there are varying opinions about which underlying factor is the most important investment consideration, at the end of the day, the process of valuation collects every investment consideration to provide a conclusion. It is the answer after all other considerations, the final outcome of analysis. It is why we say that investors that don’t pay attention to valuation may be doomed to fail…eventually. Not seeking valuation is not seeking the answer.

The Dichotomy of Airlines and Aerospace

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On Monday, top insurance idea AIG (AIG) announced that it would sell International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC) to aircraft leasing firm AerCap Holdings (AER) for $5.4 billion, consisting of $3 billion in cash and the balance in newly-issued AerCap common shares. Though we think ILFC was one of the crown jewels of AIG’s business particularly considering the prospects for global air travel demand in coming years, the price is fair and opportunistic, especially since AerCap is risking its investment-grade status to facilitate the deal. We don’t think better terms could have been had by either party, given financial constraints, and shares of both entities are moving higher on the news. The combined AerCap-ILFC will be #2 on the world stage … Read more

Why Airline Stocks Are Not Long-Term Investments

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The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down. — Warren Buffett, annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 2008. The airline industry has undergone meaningful changes since the beginning of the last decade. The painful restructuring of labor agreements and balance sheets by most of the legacy carriers via Chapter 11, the significant mega-mergers of Delta (DAL)/Northwest, UAL (UAL)/Continental, US Airways (LCC)/America West, … Read more

Dear Valuentum Member

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In such a short time that you’ve known us, you have seen us do so much: from generating more than 25 percentage points of outperformance in our Best Ideas portfolio since inception (May 2011) to delivering on our high-single-digit return goal of our Dividend Growth portfolio during 2012 to the Valuentum Dividend Cushion score predicting the dividend cuts of JC Penney (JCP), SuperValu (SVU), Roundy’s (RNDY), and others. You’ve seen us identify a triple in EDAC Tech (EDAC) and predict the bankruptcy of the parent of American Airlines (AMR). These are tremendous accomplishments. There’s an old saying in the market that if your winners are outperforming your losers, you’re doing a great job. Through November of last year, 87% of … Read more

AMR Files for Bankruptcy, as Expected

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As expected, AMR Corp (AMR), the parent of American Airlines filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday. We had been expecting the demise of the carrier as we outlined to our subscribers in our Best Ideas Newsletter. We encourage investors to not dabble in the firm’s shares after the filing today, as it is extremely likely that the shares will be cancelled (meaning current holders get nothing).  It turns out we got an answer to our rhetorical question, “Is AMR’s Equity Practically Worthless,” sooner than we had expected. View our May call on AMR’s demise here. The firm flashed a 1 on our Valuentum Buying Index in May – July, which is the lowest possible ranking on our stock-picking scale. During bankruptcy, AMR … Read more

Rundown of Third-Quarter Airline Earnings: Southwest, American Airlines, Alaska Air

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As followers of Valuentum know, we’re not too fond of airline stocks. We view them as merely speculative bets on changes in the macro-economy and jet-fuel prices—two factors largely out of airline executives’ control. Though we’ve made some money in our Best Ideas Newsletter entering into put contracts in American (AMR) and the Guggenheim Airline ETF (FAA) a number of weeks ago, we cover the group—to a large extent—to serve as a reminder to investors that airline stocks are merely speculative instruments and not long-term investments. Below, we summarize the third-quarter performance of Southwest (LUV), American (AMR), and Alaska (ALK) below:   Southwest Southwest posted a net loss in its third quarter Thursday, which compares to net income of over … Read more

Spirit Airlines Retains Cost Advantage, AMR and United Continental Trail Peers

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In the commodified airline industry, the lowest-cost provider often dictates the price for any given route, and real pricing growth continues to elude this troubled industry. As a result, efficient and low-cost operations are paramount to success, and in many cases, essential for long-term survival. The primary metric used to gauge the cost structure of an airline is cost per available seat mile (CASM) — or the cost to fly one seat one mile, whether it’s occupied or not. Unfortunately, comparing one airline’s consolidated CASM with that of another offers little insight into which airline is truly more cost efficient, as some carriers sport regional operations and others vastly different route structures and fleets. To really compare the cost structures … Read more