Starbucks’ Turnaround Continues

Image Source: TradingView

By Brian Nelson, CFA

Starbucks (SBUX) recently reported fiscal third quarter results that came in better than feared. Global comparable store sales declined 2%, driven by a 2% decline in comparable transactions, offset in part by a modest increase in average ticket. North America comparable store sales declined 2%, less than the 2.49% decline expected, driven by a 3% decline in comparable transactions, offset in part by a 1% increase in average ticket. U.S. comparable sales dropped 2%, driven by a 4% decline in comparable transactions, offset in part by a 2% increase in average ticket. International comparable store sales were flat, while China comparable store sales increased 2% (versus 1.44% estimate), driven by a 6% increase in comparable transactions, offset in part by a 4% decline in average ticket. Management had the following to say about the results:

We’ve fixed a lot and done the hard work on the hard things to build a strong operating foundation, and based on my (CEO Brian Niccol) experience of turnarounds, we are ahead of schedule. In 2026, we’ll unleash a wave of innovation that fuels growth, elevates customer service, and ensures everyone experiences the very best of Starbucks. We’re building back a better Starbucks experience and a better business.

We are making tangible progress in our ‘Back to Starbucks’ strategy. In the quarter, we made a significant non-recurring investment in our Leadership Experience 2025 and also incurred a discrete tax item, which in the aggregate, negatively impacted Q3 EPS by $0.11. We are focused on growing back better and delivering durable, sustainable long-term growth.

During the fiscal third quarter, Starbucks opened 308 net new stores, ending the period with 41,097 stores. The company ended the quarter with 17,230 stores in the U.S. and 7,828 in China. Consolidated net revenues beat expectations in the quarter, increasing 4%, to $9.5 billion, or a 3% increase on a constant currency basis. Its non-GAAP operating margin, however, contracted 660 basis points, to 10.1%. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.50 declined 46% over the prior year and missed expectations. The coffee giant ended the quarter with $17.3 billion in short- and long-term debt and $4.7 billion in cash and investments. Starbucks’ global same store sales have now fallen for six consecutive quarters, but we expect improvement as the company heads into fiscal 2026. Shares yield 2.9% at the time of this writing.

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