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Recent Articles
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UPS’ Dividend Remains on Shaky Ground
Dec 18, 2025
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Image Source: UPS.
Looking to the fourth quarter of 2025, on a consolidated basis, UPS expects revenue to be approximately $24.0 billion on a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin between 11.0%-11.5%. The company reaffirmed a variety of other items, expecting capital expenditures of approximately $2.5 billion, dividend payments of around $5.5 billion, an effective tax rate of approximately 23.75%, $1.4 billion in pension contributions (of which $1.3 billion have been made), and share repurchases of ~$1.0 billion, which have been completed. For the nine months ended September 30, free cash flow was $2.74 billion. With a Dividend Cushion ratio well below parity, we remain cautious on UPS’ dividend payout. Shares yield 6.5% at the time of this writing.
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Realty Income Raises Investment Volume Guidance for 2025
Dec 18, 2025
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Image Source: TradingView.
Realty Income's dividend payments represented 74.7% of its diluted AFFO per share of $1.08 during the three months ended September 30. The REIT revised its AFFO per share guidance for 2025 to the range of $4.25-$4.27 from $4.24-$4.28 previously, while investment volume is now targeted at approximately $5.5 billion, up from approximately $5 billion previously. We like Realty Income’s dividend coverage, but don’t include shares in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, as we think existing positions offer better risk/reward potential. Shares yield 5.6% at the time of this writing.
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Oracle Has Turned Into a Net Debt Heavy, Free Cash Flow Burning Enterprise
Dec 12, 2025
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Image Source: TradingView.
Oracle ended the fiscal second quarter with $19.8 billion in cash and marketable securities and $108.1 billion in notes payable and other borrowings. For the six months ended November 30, cash flow from operations was $10.2 billion, while capital expenditures were $20.5 billion, resulting in meaningfully negative free cash flow. For the tailing twelve months ended in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, cash flow from operations was $22.3 billion, while capital expenditures were $35.5 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow of $13.2 billion. On the call, management noted that its fiscal 2026 revenue expectations of $67 billion remains unchanged, but that capital spending will be about $15 billion higher than it forecasted at the end of the first quarter. Since Oracle is now a net-debt heavy, free cash flow burning enterprise, we now view shares as a source of cash in the newsletter portfolios.
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Macy’s Raises Outlook for 2025
Dec 8, 2025
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Image Source: TradingView.
Macy’s revised its 2025 guidance, raising its net sales and adjusted diluted earnings per share targets. Its updated guidance reflects a consumer that is more “choiceful” in the fourth quarter and that current tariffs remain in place. Net sales for 2025 are targeted in the range of $21.475-$21.625 billion, up from $21.15-$21.45 billion previously. Go-forward comparable O+L+M sales change is now expected to be flat to up 1% versus down 1.5% to flat previously. Core adjusted EBITDA margin is targeted in the range of 7.5%-7.7% compared to 7.0%-7.5% previously. Adjusted earnings per share for the year is expected in the range of $2.00-$2.20, up from $1.70-$2.05 previously.
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