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Recent Articles
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Quick Take: McDonald’s Hits All-Time Highs!
Apr 3, 2023
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Image: McDonald’s stock is soaring, and we think the company is one of the best-positioned for the current inflationary environment.
Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding McDonald’s Corp. recently hit all-time highs on news that it would take a close look at the size of its workforce, temporarily shutting its corporate offices in the U.S. in advance of layoffs. Though not great news for many that may get the pink slip, the market likes the renewed focus on costs. The high end of our discounted-cash-flow derived fair value estimate of McDonald’s stock stands north of $300, and we expect further upside potential in shares, which are trading at ~$280 at the time of this writing.
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General Mills Experiencing Tremendous Pricing Power, Positive Elasticities
Apr 1, 2023
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Image Source: Mike Mozart.
Cereal maker General Mills continues to flex its pricing power. The company’s third-quarter results for its fiscal 2023, released March 23, showed a company that is raising prices almost at will and driving tremendous adjusted operating profit expansion, while organic pound volume remains essentially flat. The company continues to optimize its revenue model as it forgoes volume expansion in favor of pricing growth, and we would expect further price increases across its product line-up for some time. With adjusted operating profit surging, price elasticities remain in its favor, much to the detriment of the cash-strapped consumer, which can only expect more food-at-home inflation. Shares of General Mills yield ~2.5% at the time of this writing.
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Not Being Greedy as Shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron Have Soared
Apr 1, 2023
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Image: Shares of Exxon Mobil were added to the newsletter portfolios in mid-June 2021 and rocketed higher for some huge “gains” over the past year or so. We still expect upside potential at both Exxon Mobil and Chevron on the basis of our fair value estimate ranges, but we removed shares of both on March 13, 2023.
We received a number of questions about why we removed Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. from the newsletter portfolios, despite our point estimate of their intrinsic values being higher than where their share prices are trading. As of the end of the first quarter of 2023, March 31, for example, shares of Exxon Mobil are trading at $109.66 per share with a fair value estimate of $133 per share, while shares of Chevron Mobil are trading at $163.16 per share with a fair value estimate of $198 per share. Exxon Mobil has a Dividend Cushion ratio of 2.8, while Chevron has a Dividend Cushion ratio of 2.4. Both Exxon Mobil and Chevron remain strong investment considerations, not only as it relates to valuation but also as it relates to the strength of their respective dividends. However, we don’t want to be too greedy with these “winners,” particularly as both commodity-producers have now entered "fair value" territory. Let's talk more about why we removed Exxon Mobil and Chevron from the newsletter portfolios in this article.
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Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 31
Mar 31, 2023
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Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
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