Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jul 6, 2024

Tesla’s Deliveries Bounce Back in Second Quarter
Source: Tesla. On July 2, Tesla released its production and delivery numbers for the second quarter of 2024. Production of Model 3/Y and other models totaled 410,831, while total deliveries came in at 443,956 units, consisting of 422,405 Model 3/Y and the balance coming from other models. The results were better than expected and helped to propel shares of the electric-vehicle maker higher. Tesla’s equity has shot up past the high end of our fair value estimate range, and while we liked the better-than-feared news regarding its deliveries, we continue to be on the sidelines with respect to Tesla’s shares. The next big catalysts for Tesla’s shares are its earnings release on July 23 and its robotaxi event on August 8. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands at $224, shy of where the company’s equity is trading ($250+).

Oct 23, 2023

2 Stocks to Watch: Tesla and Chevron
Image: Tesla. Tesla’s third-quarter report could have been a lot better, and Elon Musk’s comments that they “have dug (their) own grave with the Cybertruck” weren’t reassuring. Nonetheless, the company continues to generate free cash flow, and its balance sheet remains pristine with a very nice net cash position. We won’t be adding shares of Tesla to any newsletter portfolio, but given the price drop in its equity during the past week, we think most of the bad news is already embedded in the stock. As for Chevron, the company was once a darling stock in the newsletter portfolios, but we’ve moved beyond this big winner in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio after the huge “gains” the past 12-18 months. Shares still yield an attractive 3.6%, however, and we'll have more to say about its tie-up with Hess as more details come to light.

Jul 24, 2023

Tesla Is A Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating, Secular-Growth Powerhouse
Image: Tesla’s Cybertruck showcasing its versatility. The truck is on track to begin production at Gigafactory in Texas in the coming months. Image Source: Tesla's second-quarter press release. The cash-based sources of intrinsic value (and the trajectory of growth in them) are the most important considerations when it comes to assessing the attractiveness of an equity. Two of the most important cash-based sources of intrinsic value are net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flows, and in these two areas, Tesla excels. Though we won’t be adding Tesla to any of the newsletter portfolios anytime soon, we like it within a diversified basket of large-cap growth equities, of which the Best Ideas Newsletter in some ways approximates.

Jul 4, 2023

Tesla Registers Record Total Deliveries in Second Quarter 2023
Source: Tesla. We’ve liked Tesla’s share-price strength so far this year, and record total deliveries during the second quarter of 2023 help to continue to support its impressive share-price move. The high end of our fair value estimate range of Tesla stands at $335 per share, meaning shares of Tesla still have more room to run. The company remains one of the most speculative ways to play U.S. equities.

Oct 24, 2022

Chinese Stocks Bludgeoned!
Image: Large cap Chinese equities are now back to levels first reached more than 15 years ago on a price-only basis, to levels first attained in early 2006. The stakes have never been higher on the world stage as geopolitical uncertainty between the U.S. and China continues to escalate. Shares of Chinese equites have been bludgeoned, now back to levels first reached in early 2006, some 15 years ago. The fallout has taken some of the best investors with it, legends such as Charlie Munger, whose shares in BABA hover near all-time lows. We don’t see Chinese equities as “investable” these days, and we’re steering clear of direct exposure in the simulated newsletter portfolios at this time.

Aug 31, 2022

Valuentum: Outlook for Europe, China Is Bleak
Video: Valuentum's Associate Director of Research and Co-Portfolio Manager of the simulated newsletter portfolios, Callum Turcan, shares his thoughts about the global economy. Europe is facing considerable pressure from energy prices, while China may face a mortgage meltdown. Join Valuentum for this brief 6 minute video to get up to speed on the goings-on of the global economy and what troubles may be lurking ahead.

Jun 30, 2022

Big Changes in the Auto Industry as Chip Shortages, Supply Chain Issues, and Rising Input Costs Complicate Matters; Tesla and Ferrari Our Two Favorite Names
Image: Ferrari’s fundamental momentum has been strong of late. Image Source: Ferrari N.V. 2022 Globe Newswire. The auto industry perhaps has changed more than any other industry the past five years. First, it was Ford that said it wouldn’t make passenger cars anymore, except for its iconic Mustang. Then, the European Union said that it would eventually end the internal combustion engine (ICE) by 2035. Then, Tesla reached over $1,200 per share and over a $1 trillion market capitalization. Can you imagine a world where Ford is not making sedans, the once modern-marvel of the internal combustion engine is dying, and where one car maker is worth as much as the next nine car makers combined? Certainly, a lot has changed in the auto industry during the past decade, and we haven’t dabbled much in the auto sector as it relates to idea generation due in part to the industry’s fast-changing backdrop. That doesn’t mean that we’re not fans of the auto space and its promising long-term opportunities, particularly with electric vehicles (EVs). It just means that we think there are better stories elsewhere, as in ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios. However, if we had to pick two of our favorite auto names to consider, they would be Tesla and Ferrari, even as we note General Motors and Ford both trade at mid-single-digit earnings multiples. That said, investors don’t necessarily have to take on the risks of automakers, especially as the group deals with chip shortages, supply chain issues, and margin pressures from higher input costs. The cyclicality of many of the operators and the reality that operating leverage cuts both ways (and is quite painful during difficult economic times) are risks that perhaps won’t ever go away. That said, exposure to the auto space via Tesla or Ferrari could work nicely in a broadly diversified equity portfolio should risk-seeking investors be so inclined. These two names remain on our radar.

Nov 26, 2021

ICYMI: Time to Consider Buying Chinese Equities? Not Exactly.
Image Shown: Shares of Alibaba Group have plummeted over the past year in the wake of Beijing’s crackdown on China’s domestic tech and fintech titans. Is it finally time to start loading up on Chinese equities? We don't think so.

Jul 26, 2021

Chinese Stocks Getting Hammered
Image shown: A confluence of factors are driving Chinese stocks lower, not the least of which is heightened regulatory concerns.Investing is really simple. You don’t need to find terribly underfollowed ideas to do well, just mispriced ones. For example, Alphabet is up over 80% the past 52 weeks, and the company has been a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio for some time. Facebook has also been an outperformer. There’s no need to make things complicated. Focus on undervalued stocks on a DCF basis that have strong market support through relative strength or a solid technical breakout--and stay away from those net-debt heavy, low valuation multiple value traps!

Jun 3, 2021

How to Navigate the Low Return Environment
Image Source: QuoteInspector.com. Investors continue to gamble on meme stocks and cryptocurrencies. There are no shortcuts to success in the markets and focusing on individual security selection within the equity component of the capital structure with a focus on long-term cash-flow-based fundamentals continues to be a prudent strategy, in our view. Success rates within the Exclusive publication, for example, continue to be fantastic. The success rates for capital appreciation ideas (49 of 59) and short idea considerations (53 of 59) in the Exclusive publication are now ~83%% and ~90% from July 2016-May 2021. For investors focused on capital appreciation potential, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio may be worth a look. For those with a dividend growth focus, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio has a plethora of ideas. Though AT&T threw us a curve ball with respect to changes in its dividend payout recently, the prudent and diversified nature of the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio continues to deliver, while idea generation remains robust. Many of our options ideas have done quite well, too. We remember when the S&P was trading at about 3,000, and we pegged a fair value range on the S&P 500 of 3,530-3,920, and many thought we were crazy at the time (the S&P 500 now stands at ~4,200 at the time of this writing). You have to understand: Stock prices and returns are based on future expectations and forecasts, a truism that AMC Entertainment’s trading activity has all but proven. AMC defeats efficient markets theory. AMC defeats value versus growth. AMC defeats backward-looking analysis. Finance is dead. The field must evolve. Long live Value Trap.