Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 20, 2024

Phillips 66 Hovering Near All-Time Highs, Shares Yield ~2.7%
Image: Phillips 66 continues to be very shareholder friendly returning cash in the form of share repurchases and dividends. Though crack spreads can be quite volatile at times, there’s a lot to like about Phillips 66. The company is targeting 2025 mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA of $14 billion, up from $10 billion in 2022. Cost savings should remain ongoing, with its target calling for a total of $1.4 billion in savings, implying the company has $200 million more in savings to go. We like its investment-grade (A3/BBB+) balance sheet and target for 2025 mid-cycle adjusted operating cash flow of $10+ billion, up from $7 billion in 2022, with expectations that it will return more than half of operating cash flow to shareholders. Phillips 66 is a quality income idea for investors seeking exposure to the energy space.

Feb 16, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 16
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Aug 17, 2023

3 High Dividend Yielders for Consideration
Image: Entities with large net cash positions and substantial free cash flow generation have outperformed not only the broader stock market, but also key high yield areas, including REITs, mortgage REITs and master limited partnerships during the past 10 years. Source: The respective ETF sponsors. The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

May 30, 2023

Phillips 66’s Stock May Be Volatile But Its Management Remains Very Shareholder Friendly
Image: Phillips 66’s shares have been quite volatile as refining margins ebb and flow, but shares are up nicely since the start of 2021 even as they’ve given up some ground so far in 2023. Phillips 66’s dividend yield stands at 4.4% at the time of its writing, and management remains committed to continuing to raise the payout, having done so as recently as its most recently reported quarter. Refining margins will continue to be volatile as feedstock costs fluctuate and prices at the pump vary, and while Phillips 66 retains a rather large total debt load, we think the risks are acceptable for this income generator. We continue to like shares as an idea in a well-diversified equity income portfolio.

Feb 24, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 24
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jul 7, 2022

2022 Oil & Gas Market Update: “The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices Remains Quite Bullish”
In our view, the outlook for crude oil prices remains quite bullish which in turn should enable Chevron and Exxon Mobil, two of our favorite newsletter portfolio ideas, to churn out “gobs” of free cash flow over the coming quarters. Additionally, both Chevron and Exxon Mobil have substantial exposure to natural gas prices, in part through their enormous LNG export facilities in Australia, which should further support their cash flow generating abilities. We will caution here that a key downside risk the global energy complex faces is potential demand destruction as consumers adjust their lifestyles accordingly to reduce their energy and fuel bills. With that in mind, we have yet to see energy demand falter in a meaningful way, though we are keeping a close eye on the state of the global economy.

May 13, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week May 13
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.