Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jul 16, 2024

UnitedHealth Group Reports Messy Second Quarter Results
Image: UnitedHealth Group’s shares have been choppy since the beginning of 2023. UnitedHealth Group’s second quarter results were quite messy with a lot of moving parts, but cash flow remains resilient and the firm’s dividend growth trajectory remains solid. Back in June, the firm raised its annual dividend rate by 12%, marking the 15th consecutive year that UnitedHealth has increased it at a double-digit pace. UnitedHealth ended the quarter with $75.1 billion in total debt and $77.4 billion in cash and investments. We continue to include UnitedHealth Group as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Apr 16, 2024

UnitedHealth Group Reiterates 2024 Adjusted Net Earnings Outlook
Image: UnitedHealth Group’s shares have been choppy during the past couple years. UnitedHealth Group’s shares have seen better days as the firm works to recover from a cyberattack, while the industry’s medical costs are on the rise as patients begin to pursue procedures that were deferred during the peak of the COVID-19 crisis. Though it may be some time for UnitedHealth Group’s performance to normalize given the cyberattack and pent-up demand, we liked that it maintained its adjusted net earnings outlook for 2024 amid concerns of rising costs. UnitedHealth remains a key idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Mar 21, 2024

Pfizer 6% Dividend Yield Speaks of Considerable Risk, Free Cash Flow Coming Up Short
Image: Pfizer’s shares have been under considerable pressure the past few years. Though we are positive on Pfizer’s turnaround, its Dividend Cushion ratio of 0.3 is not to be taken lightly (any ratio below 1 indicates heightened risk of a dividend cut). Income-oriented investors seeking a turnaround story may be interested in Pfizer, but we’re staying on the sidelines. We’ll continue to monitor developments at the pharma giant, especially as patents on several of its major drugs approach expiration. Shares yield ~6% at the time of this writing.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Feb 11, 2024

Eli Lilly’s Shares Have More Than Doubled During the Past 52 Weeks
Image: Eli Lilly’s shares have been on a tear these past few years. On February 6, Eli Lilly reported excellent fourth-quarter results that showed revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expectations. The company’s fourth-quarter results were bolstered by sales of diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro, which saw sales in the quarter leap to ~$2.2 billion from ~$279 million in the year ago period. We continue to be in awe of the sales momentum behind GLP-1 receptor agonists, and the opportunity continues to be robust, despite already rapid sales acceleration. Though Eli Lilly trades at a premium to the high end of our fair value estimate range, we may be low in our expectations of the company’s ability to tap this lucrative market in the longer run, and shares may still be attractive to the risk-seeking aggressive growth investor.

Feb 2, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 2
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jan 28, 2024

Earnings Roundup: V, INTC, HUM, PYPL
Image: Visa’s operating margins are phenomenal. Image Source: Visa. Visa's first-quarter fiscal 2024 results were solid, and the firm noted that consumer spending remains resilient, paving the way for what we think will be a strong year. Intel's outlook for 2024 left a lot to be desired, and its balance sheet coupled with free cash flow burn should give more conservative investors pause. Humana's earnings outlook for 2024 spoke of considerable cost pressures, and we think this is yet another data point that the near term will be difficult for many health insurers as pent-up demand for procedures delayed during the pandemic begin to materialize. PayPal's stock remains in the dog house, and while its recently-announced innovations are great, consumer sentiment remains poor on the name.

Jan 12, 2024

UnitedHealth Group Still a Free-Cash-Flow Generating Machine
Image: UnitedHealth Group continues to drive strong revenue and operating earnings performance. Image Source: UnitedHealth Group. On January 12, healthcare benefits provider UnitedHealth Group reported strong fourth-quarter 2023 results that showed revenue advancing 14% on a year-over-year basis thanks to strength at its UnitedHealthcare and Optum divisions, while earnings from operations advanced 11.6%. UnitedHealth is facing some temporary cost pressures in its business due to pent-up demand for discretionary procedures following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, but its net margin held up fine in the period, coming in at 5.8%, the same level a year ago. Management reaffirmed its previously-issued 2024 guidance, and we continue to like UnitedHealth Group as a key weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Shares yield ~1.4% at the time of this writing.

Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.