Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 11, 2024

Ameresco’s Backlog Continues to Build
Image: Ameresco’s backlog of future business remains strong and growing. Looking to full year 2024 guidance, Ameresco expects revenue in the range of $1.7-$1.8 billion, up 27% at the midpoint of the range. Gross margin is targeted in the range of 16%-16.5%, while adjusted EBITDA is targeted to grow 35% at the midpoint of the range, to $210-$230 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share is targeted in the range of $1.15-$1.35. We continue to like Ameresco’s backlog build, as we continue to monitor its debt position and adjusted operating cash flow trends closely. The firm remains an idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.

Mar 24, 2024

Ameresco’s Shares Under Pressure Despite Record Backlog and Asset Pipeline Metrics
Image Source: Ameresco’s backlog of opportunities remains robust. We like the trajectory of Ameresco’s backlog, its order momentum as well as commentary that “proposal activity (remains) at an all-time high.” The company’s track record and technical know-how suggest to us that win rates will likely continue to be healthy. That said, we continue to monitor Ameresco’s debt position and adjusted operating cash flow trends closely, and while the firm remains an idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio, we’re viewing it as a source of cash should another ESG idea present a better risk-reward opportunity.

May 11, 2022

Ameresco Posts Solid First Quarter Earnings Update
Image Source: Ameresco Inc – First Quarter of 2022 Earnings Press Release. The rise of ESG investing and the political shift towards encouraging developments within the realm of green energy--from renewable energy projects to efforts to reduce water consumption and much more--has created numerous opportunities for investors. Ameresco offers energy efficiency solutions, infrastructure upgrades, and renewable energy solutions to its customers. The company also operates some of the renewable energy facilities it helps develop such as solar farms and biogas plants. Ameresco provides its services all over the globe, though the US remains its most important market (and the source of over 90% of its revenues). In the US, Ameresco will often help its clients secure the financing needed to fund relevant projects, particularly for its federal government customers. We include Ameresco as an idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio and view its capital appreciation upside favorably. Due to Ameresco utilizing energy savings performance contracts (‘ESPC’), its financials can be a messy read. ESPCs enable its governmental customers in the US to finance infrastructure upgrades without needing to tap their capital budgets by taking advantage of the expected future energy cost savings. The company generally experiences large working capital builds on an annual basis due to growth in its federal ESPC receivables asset, a product of Ameresco’s overall business growing, making gauging its free cash flows a more difficult task.

May 9, 2022

Interview with SDM Investments' Kevin Truitt -- ESG in a Few Words: "Good Ethics, Honesty, Respect, and Dignity"
Image: SDM Investments' Kevin Truitt (left) and Valuentum's Brian Nelson (right) pause for a picture at the Chicago Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (December 2016).We talked with SDM Investments' Kevin Truitt recently, and we’d like to share our conversation with you! Learn about the critical nature of value investing and thinking about stocks as businesses, how investors should approach macro indicators, the importance of using a margin of safety, how to think about ESG investing, and why cash-based investing helps to safeguard against downside risk. Kevin also shares five of his favorite ideas!

Nov 24, 2021

Ameresco Has Soared, Boosts Guidance (Again)
Image Shown: Shares of Ameresco Inc have boomed higher since we first wrote about the company on V.com back in August 2020. We include Ameresco as an idea in our ESG Newsletter portfolio and see ample room for further capital appreciation upside. On November 1, Ameresco reported mixed third-quarter 2021 earnings that missed top-line consensus estimates but beat bottom-line numbers. The company also raised its full-year guidance (again) for 2021 which saw the firm increase the midpoint of its revenue, gross margin, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, and non-GAAP EPS forecast. Ameresco also raised its full-year guidance for 2021 when it published its first quarter 2021 earnings report. We include Ameresco as an idea in our new ESG Newsletter portfolio and shares of AMRC have surged higher in recent months. On the website, we first wrote about Ameresco back in August 2020 and shares of AMRC have roughly tripled since then as of this writing.

Oct 8, 2021

Putting the Environmental in ESG
Image: This excerpt from the Valuentum Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Scoring System shows how environmental considerations are analyzed. Environmental considerations are just one piece of the ESG analysis, but they can reveal a lot about a company and its values. Companies that make a commitment to protecting the environment, especially those that are doing it better than their peers, are not only recognizing the social importance but also protecting themselves--and their investors--from negative financial impacts related to environment issues.

Aug 24, 2021

We Continue to Be Big Fans of Ameresco
Image Source: Ameresco Inc – August 2021 IR Presentation. The economic and investment landscape is changing, and Ameresco is well-positioned to capitalize on the “green energy revolution” and growing interest in environmental, social, and governance (‘ESG’) investing standards. Ameresco’s focus on reducing operating costs for its clients while bolstering their green energy credentials and helping secure financing for the relevant projects underpins the value proposition of the company’s offerings. We first covered Ameresco in detail through an article published back in August 2020 and followed up on that work in a subsequent article published in November 2020 and provided a brief update on the firm in a piece published in January 2021. Shares of AMRC have more than doubled since we published our first article covering the name as of mid August 2021, and we think there is ample room for additional capital appreciation upside.

Feb 12, 2021

Biofuel Producer Renewable Energy Group Is Worth a Look
Image Shown: A geographical overview of Renewable Energy Group’s operational “biorefineries” in the US and Germany. Image Source: Renewable Energy Group Inc – October 2020 IR Presentation. Renewable Energy Group is an intriguing biofuel maker with operational “biorefineries” located across the US and in Europe (specifically Germany). The company’s operations are supported by an extensive distribution network that is primarily built upon supply agreements with third parties, though Renewable Energy Group opened its own branded fuel location in 2019 for the first time. Shares of REGI have been on an upward tear of late, likely due to growing investor optimism towards green energy firms, in our view, as the new Biden administration in the US has made it clear that it would push for greater federal incentives to stimulate investment in domestic renewable energy industries. In Europe, the EU has imposed mandates and created incentives to stimulate investment in the biofuel space and non-EU members states, like Norway and the UK, have also implemented aggressive policies to support the biofuel industry. During the first nine months of 2020, Renewable Energy Group’s financial performance posted a tremendous turnaround as the company focused on higher-margin products. The company’s balance sheet is pristine, though we caution that historically, Renewable Energy Group has leaned on equity issuances to fund its growth ambitions though more recently, the firm has started to focus on reducing its outstanding diluted share count (or at the very least, limiting its shareholder dilution). We are impressed with Renewable Energy Group’s recent financial performance and are intrigued by its long-term outlook. However, we caution that the firm is highly exposed to exogenous forces. Government incentives, or lack thereof, from national government bodies (and to a lesser extent, from certain US state governments) will have an outsized impact on the trajectory of Renewable Energy Group’s growth story going forward. Investors are clearly optimistic, as shares of REGI have more than tripled over the past year. Please note Renewable Energy Group does not pay out a common dividend at this time.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 21, 2021

ICYMI: Valuentum's Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks' Memo: "Something of Value"
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks' latest memo, "Something of Value," January 11, 2021.