Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 22, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 22
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Nov 27, 2023

How Do We Use the Valuentum Buying Index?
Image: We highlighted Exxon Mobil to start 2022, and the stock was one of the best performers in the S&P 500 last year. Exxon Mobil became a “Valuentum” stock last year, with shares being undervalued, exhibiting a strong technical breakout, and sporting an attractive dividend yield to boot. The stock became a huge winner. Note: Exxon is no longer included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. The image is an excerpt from an email sent to members January 5, 2022.We answer one of the most frequently asked questions about the Valuentum Buying Index.

Sep 20, 2023

Fed Rate Decision, UAW Strike Continues, Microsoft Ups Payout
Image Source: Mike Mozart. If you’re thinking like us about the ongoing Fed rate-hiking cycle, you’re probably thinking that perhaps we’ll see another rate hike or two down the road, even if the Fed pauses at today’s September 20 meeting. However, whether the Fed pauses from here on out or executes a couple more hikes, it really shouldn’t matter much to long-term investors. From where we stand, the conversation about interest rates should now be shifting away from worries about elevated inflation to the future positive prospects that correspond to the work that the Fed has already done. With the market-cap weighted S&P 500 just a stone’s throw away from all-time highs, despite aggressive contractionary monetary policy, we believe the market may start to view the existing levels of “high” near-term interest rates as dry powder for the Fed to stimulate the economy in the future, if or when it’s needed. The Fed has now built up a very nice insurance policy with little damage done to the U.S. stock market, and we think equities, particularly the stylistic area of large cap growth, may continue to reward investors as such a positive view is eventually factored in. New highs may once again be in the cards, and we remain bullish on the equity markets today, despite the ominous volatility experienced the past 20+ months.

Sep 4, 2023

Report Updates -- Did You Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater?
The markets are finally making sense again, and we remain huge fans of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. Though entities are starting to register high ratings on the Valuentum Buying Index, we’re not pulling the trigger on either Alibaba or Korn/Ferry in light of the tremendous risks related to U.S-China relations for Alibaba and the lack of fundamental catalysts for Korn/Ferry. That said, should these firms’ technical and momentum indicators shape up, their equity prices could really catch a bid, in our view. The newsletter portfolios continue to deliver in a big way, not only generating outperformance relative to the market-cap weighted S&P 500 during 2022, but also positioning well for the boom in big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth that has materialized in 2023. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Apr 11, 2023

Markets Don’t Look Bad
Image: The market-capitalization weighted S&P 500 continues to hold its January breakout, while support held in mid-March. The market-capitalization weighted S&P 500 is no longer in a downtrend, and while the regional banking crisis gave investors pause, we’d have to say the markets don’t look bad. From a technical standpoint, the SPY broke through its downtrend in January, while it held support in mid-March. If the S&P 500 can break through the early February near-term highs, technically, things are looking quite good for the beginnings of this nascent market leg-up. It’s been a long road to get to what looks like a “bottom,” but we might have witnessed it in October of last year.

Mar 9, 2023

We Woke Up on the Wrong Side of the Bed
Image: Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. Let's cover five controversial topics today: 1) Large cap growth still dominating small cap value. 2) Who cares about whether fund managers beat their benchmarks. Pick the best group of stocks, right? 3) Dividends are capital appreciation that otherwise would have been achieved had the dividend not been paid. 4) Go figure -- bonds are down again so far in 2023. 5) REITs are underperformers and haven't been reliable dividend payers.

Jan 15, 2023

Is It Time To Turn Bullish? Inflation Tamed?
The link to download the January 2023 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter is in this article!

Jan 11, 2023

Don't Let "Them" Spin the Narrative
Here’s the bottom line: The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has failed both during the COVID-19 crisis as well as during 2022, when diversification was needed most. The strongest performers during 2022 were among the weakest performers in the years prior, and their 5-year returns still pale in comparison to those of big cap tech and large cap growth during the past five years. Small cap value, of which factor investing has been built on top of, continues to trail most other stylistic areas during the past five years. We’re staying the course. Though we expect continued tough sledding during the first quarter of 2023, we think the year will offer an incredible opportunity for investors to dollar cost average into what could be yet another strong decade of returns for stocks!

Dec 20, 2022

Stock Market Locked in Technical Downtrend; Millionaires Expect More Pain in 2023
Image: The stock market has been locked in a downtrend through all of 2022, and the latest bull trap has spoiled the Santa Claus rally. 2023 may be an equally rough year. This market just doesn’t want to go higher in the near term, and the latest bull trap wasn’t encouraging at all. We think long term investors should stay the course, but it is looking more and more like we won’t see a stock market bottom until sometime in 2023. Santa brought coal this year.

Oct 21, 2022

Get Excited: Dividend Growth Investors Rejoice! – More “Outperformance”
Image: Valuentum’s simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio continues to “outperform” relative to almost any dividend-paying benchmark this year! Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is not a real money portfolio. As of the last tally through October 19, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is beating the S&P 500 Dividend ETF SPDR (SDY) by roughly ~3.2 percentage points so far in 2022 (-8.4% versus -11.6%), all the while we’ve seen some awesome dividend growth across the board, with Microsoft (MSFT), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Honeywell (HON), and Realty Income (O) recently pushing through some nice dividend increases. What’s ~3.2 percentage points on a million-dollar portfolio? ~$32,000 in capital one doesn’t have to make up when the market’s coming roaring back in the coming years – and that’s relative to a dividend growth benchmark that is “outperforming” the SPY in a big way in 2022.