Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

BP Says Goodbye to Alaska After 60 Years
Image Source: BP IR Presentation. We are supportive of BP’s decision to divest its Alaskan operations as the company has been successfully bringing upstream projects online on-time and on-budget all over the globe over the past few years, driving its net oil & gas production levels higher (upstream output was up 4% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2019). BP’s operational execution of late has been nothing less than stellar and the energy giant is included in our simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Shares of BP yield 6.7% as of this writing.

Aug 6, 2019

Oil Major Second-Quarter 2019 Earnings Roundup
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation -- IR Presentation. Let’s look at the Oil Majors that have recently reported earnings. Global raw energy resource prices have plunged lower as concerns over the US-China trade war and the possibility a global synchronized slowdown in economic growth are beginning to emerge. We will be monitoring the situation closely going forward.

Jul 30, 2019

Don't Follow the Social Media Likes: The Divine “Comment(y)”
Image Source: Pilottage. “Personally, it was a miserable experience for me to see things that others couldn’t.” – Nelson on Valuentum’s call preceding Kinder Morgan’s dividend cut.

Jul 11, 2019

Valuentum Exclusive Yearly Round Up
"I want finance to learn from the past, the quantitative mistakes of yesteryear that brought the world economy to its knees. The misaligned incentives that created a massive bubble and subsequent housing market crash. The problems of leverage in yet another quant hedge fund Long Term Capital Management that caused panic in the late 1990s. Wall Street is not learning from history, and many are going wildly down the path of destruction. Don’t confuse indexing with a bull market. Pay attention to what you own. Stay diversified, and most of all, do your own due diligence." -- President of Investment Research, Brian Nelson, CFA

Jun 30, 2019

Chevron's Permian Opportunity, Outsize Dividend Yield
Image Source: Chevron Corporation -- IR Presentation. Large oil & gas companies like Chevron are often sought after for their nice yields and promising growth prospects; however, the space has been undergoing a medium/long-term bust since late-2014. Chevron earned a return on invested capital, excluding goodwill, that was lower than its estimated weighted-average cost of capital in 2018 (its ROIC ex-goodwill were negative in 2016 and 2017). We don’t expect that to change until fiscal 2020 at the earliest, under our baseline assumptions, but we do expect Chevron’s financial performance (and returns) to improve materially through the early-2020s. That isn’t enough to get use excited about Chevron’s shares and its nice yield, but we are monitoring the space at-large.

May 3, 2019

Energy Earnings Roundup
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation -- First quarter 2019 earnings presentation.

May 2, 2019

Occidental Petroleum, Backed by Buffett’s Financial Firepower, Makes a Go At Anadarko Petroleum in an Affront to Chevron
Image Source: Occidental Petroleum Corp -- IR presentation. The bidding war over Anadarko Petroleum is heating up with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway offering to invest $10.0 billion in a new 8% preferred issue from Occidental Petroleum, along with warrants to purchase up to 80 million shares of OXY at $62.50, if the energy company successfully acquires Anadarko. Occidental is bidding against Chevron because both firms want Anadarko’s Permian Basin acreage, but the leverage Occidental would take on the fund the deal would be extremely onerous in our view.

Apr 26, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 26
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Apr 14, 2019

Chevron Joins the Ranks of Exxon Mobil and Shell After Buying Anadarko
Image Source: Chevron Corporation – IR presentation. Chevron is buying Anadarko. Chevron will have to show that the projected operational synergies and related capital intensity reductions actually materialize through this acquisition, as execution risk is very material in the oil & gas world. We will be monitoring the industry as further consolidation is possible with interest rates remaining low for the time being and in light of oil prices moving sharply higher since January.

Dec 31, 2018

Valuentum Stock Screeners
Brian Nelson provides members with an update on Valuentum's stock screeners and the significant number of forward-looking data we provide. This article was sent to members via email December 29.

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