Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 22, 2020

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? -- Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios
Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report -- 32. We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates--estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due to COVID-19--and corporate debt levels more elevated than ever before (note, a high net debt level should depress the P/E in enterprise valuation--US corporate debt has advanced 50% over the past decade, to $10 trillion), it is our contention that the current market reflects a “situation-equivalent” forward P/E (i.e. rightsizing for new net debt relative to the dot-com peak and adjusting for lower forward earnings expectations compared with current forecasts) perhaps greater than 24.4, which was recorded at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Though interest rates are lower than they were at the time of the dot-com crash, suggesting a modest reasonable bump to normalized forward P/E ratios of ~15 times to reflect “fair valuations,” we could seriously be in for fundamental-driven crash soon, as both the earnings multiple and earnings estimates contract aggressively. Hypothetically, a contraction to a 16x forward multiple on earnings estimates just 10% lower than currently forecast implies an S&P 500 of 2,566, or a swoon of about 20%-30% from current levels--and that would just get us down to 16x still-respectable forward numbers. How quantitative-driven price-agnostic trading may impact this scenario is not known either, and all of this could be setting up for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months. Fasten your seatbelts. We’ll have a few newsletter portfolio alerts coming Monday.

Feb 18, 2020

Our Reports on Stocks in the Building Materials Industry
Image Source: Scott. We've optimized our building materials coverage.

Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Jan 4, 2020

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds
Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception.

Nov 20, 2019

Shares of Home Depot Appear Overvalued
On November 19, Home Depot reported third-quarter earnings for fiscal 2019 (period November 3, 2019), and same-store sales growth fell way short of expectations which sent shares of HD sharply lower on the day. Company-wide same-store sales rose by 3.6% year-over-year, supported by 3.8% year-over-year growth in the US last quarter. We think Home Depot's shares are way ahead of themselves given rising exogenous headwinds and the looming threat of additional tariffs should ongoing US-China trade talks break down. The company has a great cash flow profile, but its valuation is stretched as the growth rates required to justify its current valuation aren’t realistic, in our view.

Oct 17, 2019

Honeywell’s Aerospace Division Its Crown Jewel
Image Source: 3Q 2019 Earnings Release. We’re huge fans of Honeywell. The company’s Aero operations are its crown jewel, and while Boeing is facing some troubles these days, we don’t expect much impact on Honeywell at all. In fact, we expect commercial aerospace to remain strong, even in the face of broader industrial weakness. The risks to the company’s HBT business could be starting to mount given some concerns in commercial real estate, but management isn’t really seeing any signs of yet, pointing to only moderating growth in 2020. The SPS division, while a headwind, probably won’t be a factor next year, but it could bounce back as inventories are cleared from the channel.

Oct 12, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA
Catch up with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles.

Sep 20, 2019

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 20
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Aug 21, 2019

Home Depot, Lowe’s Largely Unfazed By Lumber Price Deflation
Image Source: Mike Mozart. The home improvement retailing market appears very, very healthy, and while consumers could have already taken advantage of ultra-low rates to do home repairs, additional Fed cuts certainly won’t hurt the backdrop for home improvement retailers. Home Depot and Lowe’s continue to put up solid results.

Jun 13, 2019

RYAM: Terrible Business, Potentially Cheap Stock
Image Source: First-Quarter 2019 Presentation Materials. Rayonier Advanced Materials has seen better days, but has the market overreacted? We don’t think there are many businesses that have poorer industry structure, but if the company can get things back on track, normalized free cash flow indicates substantial upside potential. Commodity prices and tariffs remain big wild cards to this story, and the Valuentum investor always waits for technicals and momentum indicators to turn decidedly positive first.