Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 12, 2021

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.

Nov 5, 2021

Qualcomm Explodes Higher Towards Our Fair Value Estimate; Semiconductor Supply Chain Update
Image Source: Qualcomm's shares have surged toward our fair value estimate. We continue to like shares of this dividend growth giant. Qualcomm remains a free-cash-flow generating juggernaut that has a very healthy dividend. Management surprised the market to the upside with its fiscal fourth-quarter report and guidance and indicated that supply chain issues are “playing out exactly as (they) planned,” as the firm expects supply and demand to be aligned by the second half of 2022. We were pleased by the news and are reiterating our $170 per share fair value estimate and the company as an idea for long-term dividend growth investors.

Oct 25, 2021

Intel’s Huge Expected Capital Spending Gives Dividend Growth Investors Pause
Image: Intel has advanced nicely during the past several years, but more recently, its choppy stock behavior is reflective of the market having trouble figuring out the future direction of this tech behemoth, particularly in light of encroaching competition and huge expected capital spending growth. Shares offer investors a healthy 2.8% dividend yield, however, which gives the stock a sturdy foundation for the time being. In October 2020, we decided to remove Intel from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as competition was heating up and the firm’s balance sheet started to lose its luster. Weakening free cash flow due to a huge expected capital-spending build now makes Intel incrementally less attractive of an idea, though we note shares continue to trade within our fair value estimate range ($45-$67), which may be revised slightly lower on the next update. A dividend yield of ~2.8% is supported by future free cash flow in the near term, but there may be more clouds on the horizon (and investors should expect a lower Dividend Cushion ratio upon the next update, too). We’re comfortable being on the sidelines as there are so many other investment considerations that fit the financial bill better, in our view--namely those capital-appreciation and dividend-growth considerations with strong net cash positions and strong future expected free cash flow growth.

Aug 12, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Enters Bidding War to Bolster Automotive Growth Runway
Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – March 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders Presentation. One of our favorite semiconductor plays is Qualcomm. For those just getting familiar with the name, the company is about much more than just supplying components used in smartphones. While the rollout of 5G-capable smartphones will provide Qualcomm’s medium-term financial performance a large boost due to its Snapdragon mobile platform offerings, another key aspect of Qualcomm’s promising growth story is its exposure to the automotive industry.

Jul 26, 2021

Chinese Stocks Getting Hammered
Image shown: A confluence of factors are driving Chinese stocks lower, not the least of which is heightened regulatory concerns.Investing is really simple. You don’t need to find terribly underfollowed ideas to do well, just mispriced ones. For example, Alphabet is up over 80% the past 52 weeks, and the company has been a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio for some time. Facebook has also been an outperformer. There’s no need to make things complicated. Focus on undervalued stocks on a DCF basis that have strong market support through relative strength or a solid technical breakout--and stay away from those net-debt heavy, low valuation multiple value traps!

Jul 14, 2021

10 YEARS OF EXCELLENCE AT VALUENTUM
Join Valuentum as it celebrates its 10th anniversary of putting investors first!

Jun 27, 2021

Two Alerts and Bull Market On!
Image Source: Mike Cohen. "We like stocks in an inflationary environment, and we love big cap tech and large cap growth in any environment." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Jun 18, 2021

ICYMI: Watch Valuentum's November 2019 Presentation on 'Value Trap' Now!
YOU WILL LEARN  ---  * The pitfalls of valuation multiple analysis and the risks of extrapolating some empirical quantitative conclusions.  * A critical framework to view and interpret stock price movements and stock valuation.  * The universal nature of enterprise valuation to all things finance from competitive advantage analysis to dividend-growth investing and beyond.

Jun 15, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Qualcomm Proactively Managing Fallout from Global Chip Shortage
Image Shown: Qualcomm Inc, one of our favorite semiconductor firms, noted in March 2021 that the rollout of 5G wireless networks is accelerating which in turn supports its outlook. We include shares of QCOM as an idea in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders IR Presentation. One of our favorite ways to gain exposure to the semiconductor industry is Qualcomm Inc, and we include shares of QCOM as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Qualcomm’s IP portfolio and the “chips” that it designs play an essential role in enabling 5G connectivity in smartphones, powering the digital capabilities of modern automobiles, and supporting wireless network operations (including 5G networks). Qualcomm’s business model remained resilient in the face of headwinds caused by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The company’s asset-light business model (relatively modest capital expenditure requirements to maintain a certain level of revenues) enables Qualcomm is generate sizable free cash flows in almost any environment, and its promising growth outlook is underpinned by secular tailwinds.

Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.