Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Hi-Crush and EnLink Join Growing List of MLP Simplifications
Image Source: EnLink transaction presentation.A number of master limited partnerships continue to transition to more simplified structures as they attempt to become increasingly nimble organizations.

Sep 18, 2018

Midstreams Going C-Corp, Should SEC Disallow the Measure Distributable Cash Flow?
It’s important to differentiate the concept of enterprise free cash flow valuation and the idea of capital-market dependence. The uncertainty of the MLP business model remains, as it is clear operators are shunning the MLP business model preferring C-Corps instead. According to work from Global X Funds, now 40% of the energy infrastructure market cap consists of C-Corps, up considerably from just 15% at the end of 2014. Though many simplifications have come with implied distribution cuts, the primary reason for the rise in C-Corps across the midstream space has been the rationalizing of excess MLP valuations to enterprise free cash flow assessments. We encourage the SEC to consider disallowing the use of distributable cash flow, as it is confusing to investors.

Sep 14, 2018

Dividend Growth: Capital Preservation Remains Key
Image Shown: Since mid-June 2015, the performance of an ETF tracking the midstream MLP industry (AMLP) has collapsed while the performance of an ETF tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) industry has surged.The Valuentum dividend methodology continues to identify weeds that may overrun a beautiful garden of stocks forming your portfolio. Part of the Valuentum dividend methodology is helping to identify in advance those companies at risk of a dividend cut, as once the payment is slashed, not only is the income stream reduced but capital may be permanently impaired.

Sep 5, 2018

In The News: APU, EPD, MMP, OHI, PSA, O, TGE
We’re keeping a close eye on a number of high-yielding equities, and several have reported strong earnings during the calendar second quarter.

Aug 24, 2018

The Days of the MLP Model Are Numbered
We applaud Enbridge-Spectra on explaining the MLP business model with transparency. Though we think rollups could bring new capital into the MLP space, we expect the days of the MLP model are numbered. The opportunity to raise capital at yield-based pricing has been eliminated.

Aug 20, 2018

ETE-ETP Rollup and Implied Distribution Cut
We continue to believe that the MLP business model may be a goner, and the recent ETE-ETP rollup is the latest example. Though new capital may come into the space on expectations that there will be premiums in unit-for-unit rollup deals, most of the combinations are coming with implied distribution cuts.

Aug 17, 2018

ICYMI -- Podcast: 2nd Annual Nelson Exclusive Yearly Round Up Call
President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson talks the markets, valuations, the economy, the consumer and various other trends from crude oil to cryptocurrency to geopolitical risks to corporate tax reform and beyond. Running time ~25 minutes.

Jul 24, 2018

FERC Clarifies MLP Tax Changes
Image shown: The prices of MLPs have collapsed since mid-June 2015 as the stock market has surged. The status quo for many MLPs looks to be restored, though that doesn’t mean MLPs are out of the woods. We continue to expect many to transition to corporates in coming years, and the idea of consolidation/buyouts may bring new investor capital to the space.

Jun 29, 2018

Dividend Growth Still A Resilient Theme
Rising interest rates may pose headwinds to yield-sensitive dividend payers, but we think dividend growth investing remains a resilient theme. We’re big fans of the concept of yield-on-cost, but close attention to valuations, free cash flow generation and balance-sheet health will remain critical.

Jun 1, 2018

The Free Cash Flow Shortfall in the Master Limited Partnership Space
With the recent acceleration of master limited partnership simplification transactions, we find it appropriate to revisit the internally-generated cash flow shortfall present throughout much of the space. The table provides a breakdown of traditional free cash flow (cash from operating activities less all capital spending) relative to distributions paid, as well as a measure of the elevated financial leverage often found within the group.

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