Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 20, 2017

Dividends: Costco and Walmart
Image Source: Fiscal Year 2017 Annual Report. The retail sector is undergoing a revolutionary change to its traditional business model of delivering value to customers in a brick-and-mortar format with a tepid nod towards an e-commerce platform. There will inevitably be winners and losers from such a massive paradigm shift to online, but we think Costco and Walmart will be able to adapt effectively, while delivering a tidy dividend to boot. We do not believe Amazon will rule the world.

Dec 11, 2017

Omega Healthcare and Holly Energy Partners: Case Studies in REIT and MLP Income Evaluation
Image shown: The performance of the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) during the Financial Crisis in 2007-2009. An assessment of a REIT’s or MLP’s dividend/distribution strength not only should reflect firm-specific fundamentals, but also external market conditions, which are paramount to the sustainability of most any REIT’s or MLP’s payout. Let’s remind readers of this important dynamic, which is captured via the two different Dividend Cushion ratios, and walk through what goes into the analysis we pursue when making a change with respect to our assessment of a company’s dividend health or safety.

Dec 9, 2017

Addressing the Intricacies of the Dividend Cushion Ratio
The Dividend Cushion ratio continues to build an impressive track record of warning investors of impending dividend cuts, but it’s not perfect. Let’s examine a few recent cases.

Dec 1, 2017

Shopping for Income Within Retail in a Digital World
Image Source: Mike Mozart. The 2017 holiday shopping season has shown that e-commerce has never been stronger and it will only continue to grow. But there is still potential for income generation among more traditional retailers. Investors must be tremendously discerning in the retail area, however, as margin, and ultimately free cash flow, pressures remain prevalent. We like Walmart, Target, Costco as income ideas in the broader retail space, but TJX Companies and Best Buy may be worth a look, too. We're avoiding the department stores and teen retail like the plague, regardless of their Dividend Cushion ratios.

Nov 29, 2017

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio
Image Source: fauxto_digit. We made a few tactical tweaks to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle.

Nov 26, 2017

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform
Image Source: DonkeyHotey. Donald Trump and team are working hard to “Make America Great Again,” and lowering tax rates on corporations is a key initiative. Nobody knows for sure whether such efforts will come to fruition, but knowing how to use our research and understanding the fair value estimate range puts you ahead of the crowd, if it hasn’t already.

Nov 21, 2017

A “Terrible” Negative Alpha-Generating “Trade” and More
Let’s walk through some of the news before the Thanksgiving holiday, and one of the bigger missteps we made during 2017.

Nov 20, 2017

Valuentum’s “Home Runs” During 2017
Image Source: Keith Allison. We don’t take many swings, but when we do…

Nov 19, 2017

Nelson on Bogle, Part I
Image shown: An example illustrating how the dividend is a component of capital appreciation that otherwise would have been achieved had the dividend not been paid. Such a situation applies to both regular and special dividends. "The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the "I'll get it next time" mentality that was present leading to the crash of '29, individual investors have "evolved" to the point that now the idea is if you can't beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that didn't show his/her work. When the test comes around, and the problem is a bit different, the copier is up a creek." -- The Valuentum Team

Nov 17, 2017

How Have Our Best “Dividend Growth Ideas” Performed During 2017?
We wrote recently about how well the top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio have performed during 2017, but what about the top-weighted ideas in the other newsletter portfolio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio? How have they performed during 2017? Please tell us you know how well the top-weighted ideas have been performing.