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Jun 11, 2018
Merck’s Dominance in Immuno-Oncology Expands Once Again
Image Source: Merck. Merck simply blew away the competition--the results are simply incredible. Keytruda is a gamechanger, and we think it will become the top-selling pharmaceutical once the patent lapses on Humira. Jun 4, 2018
Solar Not So Hot
Image Source: zak zak. Though First Solar stands alone as one of the stronger players in the solar space, we think the industry backdrop is among the weakest in our coverage universe. We’re huge fans of clean renewable energy but separating what we want to be a good industry like solar from an industry that actually has strong structural characteristics is a key component of being a good investor. Oftentimes, it is better to own an average company in a great industry than a good company in one of the worst industries out there. Jun 1, 2018
The Free Cash Flow Shortfall in the Master Limited Partnership Space
With the recent acceleration of master limited partnership simplification transactions, we find it appropriate to revisit the internally-generated cash flow shortfall present throughout much of the space. The table provides a breakdown of traditional free cash flow (cash from operating activities less all capital spending) relative to distributions paid, as well as a measure of the elevated financial leverage often found within the group. May 30, 2018
Study: Valuentum's Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
"Though we largely achieved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio’s goals in advancing the newsletter portfolio each publication year (ends December 15) and achieving relative outperformance and risk-adjusted superiority to the benchmark, we may have done even better had our equity allocation been full during the measurement period." -- Brian Nelson, CFA May 28, 2018
Uncertainty of Italy’s Political Future Weighing on Global Investors' Minds
Image shown: Duomo di Milano. Italy holds ~$2.7 trillion in public debt, and global investors are worried that a new government could implement policies that would weaken the country’s credit status. Though a sovereign debt crisis does not seem probable at this point, bond markets are suggesting that risks are rising. May 25, 2018
The Most Important Topic in Stock Investing
President of Equity Research, Brian Nelson, discusses why price vs. value is the paramount consideration in stock investing. May 23, 2018
Tiffany Rallies 20%+ on 1Q’18 Report; Positive Read-Through for China, High-End Retail Margins
Tiffany’s first-quarter 2018 results were from another planet! Strong increases in comparable store sales almost across the board, blowing by consensus estimates, and the company’s free cash flow outlook has only improved. The read-through is significantly positive for aspirational and luxury players, in our view, and Ralph Lauren’s gross-margin improvement during its quarterly release bodes well for many brands across most of the high-end apparel space. Foreign tourism and high-end consumer spending remain very strong on the basis of Tiffany’s quarterly results, and geopolitical concerns did not impact the breakneck pace of jewelry sales in China or the Korean Peninsula. It’s hard to imagine Tiffany having a better first quarter than it did. May 21, 2018
Campbell Soup Representative of Weakening Consumer Staples Equities
Image Source: Neil Conway. When our team presented at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017, we warned about the possible coming pressures on consumer staples stocks, and so far, our concerns have come to fruition. Not only have a number of high-profile players in the tobacco and beverage arena soured, but household consumer products and packaged foods players have felt the pain, too. Campbell Soup’s recent fallout has been among the worst. Shares have been halved since mid-2017. May 17, 2018
Has Macy’s Found Its Winning Formula? J.C. Penney Might Be a $0
Shares of Macy’s surged following its fiscal first quarter report May 16 as the department store beat estimates and raised its full-year guidance. That said, we continue to be cautious on the long-term prospects of big box retailers and the department stores, in particular. You won’t see us adding any department store to the simulated newsletter portfolios. J.C. Penney might be a $0 during the next downturn, whenever that comes. May 16, 2018
Sports Betting Legalized; Churchill Downs Has Leg Up on Rivals
In a landmark decision, the US Supreme Court ruled that states could legalize sports betting. We expect this to be a positive catalyst for several gambling-related equities, and many are moving fast to capitalize on the development. We’re taking a long-term view on potential ramifications and are not jumping head-first into any potential opportunities…yet.
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