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Jul 10, 2018
Biogen Hits a Potential Home Run
We closely follow the progress of the clinical pipeline of companies in the pharma/biotech sector. Unlike other less product-driven industries, the pharma/biotech sector can experience wide swings in operating performance as a result of the lapsing of patent protection on key drugs, underscoring the importance of innovation to replace aging products. Biogen may have hit a home run in the critical field of Alzheimer's, an area of tremendous untapped need. Jul 6, 2018
Indexing Moves Markets and Creates Inefficiencies
We think the example of Longfin Corp shows definitively that index investing moves markets and can create inefficiencies. In a prior paper, we introduced the concept of expectations “errors” as it relates to testing market efficiency, and in this paper, we strive to identify the foundational element that may help explain not only that inefficiencies exist because of index investing, but also the drivers behind such inefficiencies, illustrated as function of shares purchased by index trackers to achieve the respective index weight as a percentage of the number of shares in the company’s float. It may not be whether indexing moves markets or causes inefficiencies, but rather, how frequently and by how much. Jun 28, 2018
Amazon: The Destroyer of Other Companies’ Profits
Image Source: Victor. Amazon is stepping into the pharmacy business with the purchase of online pharmacy start-up PillPack. The market is implying the move will prove to be more than just a headache for those operating in the drug store/pharmacy and drug-distributor complex. Whether the impact will be significantly material in the coming years remains to be seen, but it’s a big directional negative for impacted parties. Jun 26, 2018
General Electric Stripping Businesses, Dividend in Aggregate
Image source: GE investor presentation. Once a seemingly unshakable component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and one of the most-recognizable industrial firms in the world, General Electric announced further divestiture plans of its sprawling portfolio of businesses. More changes are in store for its dividend as well. Jun 24, 2018
Aiding in Misbehaving
Download the full paper in this article. Jun 24, 2018
Owens & Minor: Dividend At Risk, But Shares Not Expensive
We’re fans of consistent dividend payers with strong free-cash-flow coverage and solid balance sheets, but we remain very skeptical of companies with a dividend that seems “too good to be true” as the eye-popping dividend is often a byproduct of an egregious drop in the price of the stock. We believe Owens & Minor is an example of an overleveraged, slow-growth entity that may have trouble maintaining its dividend in coming years. We value shares at $20 each, however, so the market may be overreacting a bit on the downside. Jun 22, 2018
Internet Sales Taxes and Restructuring the U.S. Post Office
The Supreme Court has been active in creating revenue opportunities for states, as in legalizing sports betting and most recently in facilitating the collection of online sales taxes. The White House has floated the idea of reorganizing the U.S. Postal Service, but we think this endeavor represents more of a tail risk for Stamps.com than anything else. Though we expect smaller online retailers to feel some pressure as a result of the online sales tax ruling (Amazon already collects online sales taxes), we don’t think the ruling, while leveling the playing field for some brick-and-mortar retailers, will change the fate of many aging department stores such as J.C. Penney and Sears, both of which may not make it to the other side of the next downturn with shareholder capital intact. Jun 20, 2018
In the News: Facebook, General Electric, GameStop
We continue to love Facebook’s valuation opportunity, and the company has registered a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index. General Electric’s stock price continues to swoon, and we couldn’t have called it better. We used the mosaic theory to anticipate private-equity interest in GameStop. Not a bad trio of calls, no? Jun 19, 2018
Trade Worries Back on the Table
Image Source: Michael Vadon. We think investors shouldn’t overreact, but we didn’t have two world wars in the last century because leaders of superpowers “got along” nicely. Jun 15, 2018
Visa!
Image shown: The performance of Visa since it was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has a habit of identifying outperforming stock ideas.
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