Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 22, 2020

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? -- Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios
Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report -- 32. We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates--estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due to COVID-19--and corporate debt levels more elevated than ever before (note, a high net debt level should depress the P/E in enterprise valuation--US corporate debt has advanced 50% over the past decade, to $10 trillion), it is our contention that the current market reflects a “situation-equivalent” forward P/E (i.e. rightsizing for new net debt relative to the dot-com peak and adjusting for lower forward earnings expectations compared with current forecasts) perhaps greater than 24.4, which was recorded at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Though interest rates are lower than they were at the time of the dot-com crash, suggesting a modest reasonable bump to normalized forward P/E ratios of ~15 times to reflect “fair valuations,” we could seriously be in for fundamental-driven crash soon, as both the earnings multiple and earnings estimates contract aggressively. Hypothetically, a contraction to a 16x forward multiple on earnings estimates just 10% lower than currently forecast implies an S&P 500 of 2,566, or a swoon of about 20%-30% from current levels--and that would just get us down to 16x still-respectable forward numbers. How quantitative-driven price-agnostic trading may impact this scenario is not known either, and all of this could be setting up for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months. Fasten your seatbelts. We’ll have a few newsletter portfolio alerts coming Monday.

Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Jun 3, 2019

US Government Launches Anti-Trust War Against Alphabet, Apple, and Facebook
Image shown: Technology shares took a beating during the trading session June 3.The DOJ and FTC are coming after Alphabet. Apple, and Facebook, and we can’t help but feel the moves are in some ways politically motivated. Even if regulators decide to break up these companies, it doesn’t mean that they will “confiscate” their businesses. Worst case scenario, perhaps pieces of their businesses would be auctioned off at arguably above-market prices, which could be a net positive.

Jan 15, 2019

In the News: Apple vs. Qualcomm, Intel and AMD, Visa in China, and Netflix’s Pricing
Let’s take a look at some of the top stories on some of the biggest names in tech. Apple secured a legal victory in Germany, rumors swirl Intel and AMD, Visa’s efforts in China may have hit a speedbump, and Netflix is enacting its largest price hike ever on its US subscribers.

Dec 31, 2018

Valuentum Stock Screeners
Brian Nelson provides members with an update on Valuentum's stock screeners and the significant number of forward-looking data we provide. This article was sent to members via email December 29.

Dec 20, 2018

Market Mayhem -- Alerts for Members
Dear members -- we released a number of emails today. Please read and let us know if you have any questions. We're here for you.

Dec 19, 2018

Oracle Raises Internal Guidance; Share Buybacks Abound
Image Source: May Wong. Oracle’s fiscal 2019 second quarter report revealed expectations for accelerating top-line growth thanks in large part to strong momentum in bookings. The company’s technology leadership may be greater than ever before, and it continues to generate robust free cash flow. Management’s appetite for buybacks appears insatiable.

Dec 10, 2018

In the News: Generic Drug Price Fixing and Apple’s Legal Battle in China
An investigation into pricing practices in the generic drug industry has substantially expanded, and implications may be far more widespread than initially expected. Meanwhile, Apple is fighting a preliminary order that will ban the sale of its iPhones that utilize certain software.

Dec 6, 2018

Trade Uncertainty Update
Image Source: John Karakatsanis. The arrest of a high profile Chinese tech executive has renewed concerns over trade tensions after the US markets were closed for a day of remembrance for the 41st President of the US. Also, the Fed released its Beige Book.

Nov 12, 2018

In The News: Market Volatility, iPhone Unit Concerns, Wildfire Liabilities Piling Up
Let’s take a look at some top stories from around the markets including headlines in the biotech and tobacco spaces, some household names facing material selling pressure, and the significant impact of massive wildfires in California.