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Valuentum Commentary
Jun 19, 2018
Trade Worries Back on the Table
Image Source: Michael Vadon. We think investors shouldn’t overreact, but we didn’t have two world wars in the last century because leaders of superpowers “got along” nicely. Apr 3, 2018
Alert: Dropping P&G; Also -- Intel's Dividend Hike; General Motors Puts Up Strong March Sales
We were reminded of some good news from Intel and General Motors today, but the time has come to part with Procter & Gamble. We may have included it in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio too long. Mar 20, 2018
Avoiding Troubled Equities Such as General Electric
The Valuentum process waits for a stock’s price to be moving higher before it is considered. The stock must not only be undervalued on both a discounted cash-flow basis and relative value basis, in our view, but the market must also believe that its true intrinsic value should be higher, too, as evidenced by a rising share price. The process is symmetrical. We also would wait for a company’s share price to break down before we may consider removing an overpriced stock. In some cases, the information contained in prices can even provide clues when to remove an underpriced stock, as in the case of General Electric. Feb 12, 2018
Stocks Stage Comeback, US Government Budget Released
Image shown: The performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since September 2017.The market continues to lick its wounds following the sell-off. We’re watching interest rates and technicals for signs where the market may go next. Feb 9, 2018
Systemic Risk
Image Source: Maximo Santana. We believe the next crisis will not be a banking crisis, but one of a breakdown in market structure. Feb 7, 2018
Hasbro, Boeing Pop as Market Bounces Back
Image Source: US Missile Defense Agency. June 22, 2014 - The Missile Defense Agency's Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. The markets have finally been getting the volatility that we’ve all been waiting for, and we don’t like the idea that the market is now trading more like a cryptocurrency. Granted, it’s important to stay focused over a long-term time horizon, which irons out the ups and downs, but there’s just something about 1,000+ daily swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that really doesn’t sit well with us, regardless of what that implies with respect to the percentage change. Can you imagine -- All of this over just a couple basis point increase in the 10-year and one very, very small ETF losing most of its value? What if something truly material happens? This market is fragile. Feb 6, 2018
Newsletter Portfolio Idea GM Powers Higher, Markets Calm Down…a Bit
The US markets still faced quite a bit of volatility during the trading session February 6, but it wasn’t anything compared to the bloodbath from Groundhog Day and the subsequent Monday. We can only hope that the worst has passed, but it probably hasn’t. Feb 5, 2018
The Sell Off February 5 Remains Minimal Compared to the Gains of Past Years
Image shown: The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) share price performance since mid-2009. The pullback the past few days hasn’t amounted to much, but it has caught the attention of investors. Recent equity market price declines don’t add up to much compared to the huge gains of recent years. Typical bear markets result in the evaporation of nearly 40% of investor wealth, on average. Feb 2, 2018
What Goes Up… Well, You Know the Rest
Groundhog Day proved to be painful for the markets. Though a few companies disappointed with respect to their earnings reports, the real reason for the sell-off is two-fold: the market is overpriced by most metrics and Treasury rates, used within valuation frameworks, are rising. Jan 14, 2018
2018 Starts Out with a Bang!
Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings. Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility? Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
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