Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Part I: Berkshire’s 2018 Shareholder Letter Does Not Disappoint
Warren Buffett was on point in his most recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. The company remains one of our favorite ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 14, 2019

Changes to the Newsletter Portfolios (Best Ideas & Dividend Growth)
Image shown: In our December 26 note to members, we moved the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to "fully invested" from a cash "allocation" of 30% and 20%, respectively at the high end of the range. It has worked out wonderfully as we keep our finger on the put option trigger in case price-agnostic trading and heightened volatility rears its ugly ahead again, as it did in December 2018.

Oct 8, 2018

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Not Bad Thus Far in 2018
Part of what we take pride in at Valuentum is telling things how they are. If things are going great, we let you know. If things aren’t going as good as they could be, we don’t hold back. In the year of crypto and cannabis, 2018 hasn’t been the best year for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, but it hasn’t been bad either.

Sep 13, 2018

In The News: Hurricane Florence, Tariffs and Capital Spending Delays, Kroger and Big Tobacco on the Move
Let’s take a look at some of the top stories across the market, including the impact tariffs are having on capital spending plans and bottom lines and recent developments in big tobacco.

Aug 13, 2018

The Berkshire Breakout
Image shown: Berkshire Hathaway's shares have broken out following the release of its second-quarter 2018 results. We continue to believe Berkshire Hathaway belongs in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have more flexibility to pursue share buybacks, and we’d be flat-out surprised if Berkshire were to buy Southwest outright. Berkshire’s cash balance continues to grow, and we think a stake in Facebook might be the best opportunity for a part of the equity security allocation.

Jun 28, 2018

Amazon: The Destroyer of Other Companies’ Profits
Image Source: Victor. Amazon is stepping into the pharmacy business with the purchase of online pharmacy start-up PillPack. The market is implying the move will prove to be more than just a headache for those operating in the drug store/pharmacy and drug-distributor complex. Whether the impact will be significantly material in the coming years remains to be seen, but it’s a big directional negative for impacted parties.

May 25, 2018

CVS Health Story Unchanged; Still Okay with Its Removal
Image Source: Mike Mozart. CVS Health continues to face long-term threats to its business, and relatively weak near-term performance expectations have done little to inspire confidence. The company’s long-term debt load has exploded as it prepares to acquire Aetna, and we don’t expect the company to bounce back onto our radar given the materially increased financial leverage amidst other challenges.

Apr 5, 2018

Walgreens Boots Alliance Remains at the Crossroads of a Rapidly-Evolving Healthcare Landscape
Image Source: Walgreens 2Q 2018 Earnings Release. The evolving healthcare landscape has been dealing with the threat of a disruptive new competitor entering the market and considerable political risk. Though the need for healthcare remains impervious to economic forces, a clear deflationary trend has descended on the industry that has affected many of the well-entrenched participants. Let’s examine Walgreens Boots Alliance for clues that a shift in sentiment may have occurred in this well known, yet beleaguered sector.

Mar 15, 2018

Cigna, Express, and the Unwinding of the PBM Market
Image Source: Cigna. Given its track record of creative destruction, when Amazon plans to enter a particular line of business, it presents an ominous threat to incumbents. What is often overlooked, too, is that Amazon is more than willing to try new verticals—if they prove promising, additional assets will be devoted to the new line of business, often with fawning media coverage. If Amazon is unsuccessful in its endeavor, however, then it seems as though it will “fail fast” and shut down the project and move on. We found the recent announcement of a joint venture to tackle the healthcare industry as particularly noteworthy.

Feb 27, 2018

Buffett’s Berkshire, Corporate Buybacks on Pace for Record; Lithium, Steel Prices on the Move
Image Source: Berkshire Hathaway, Shareholder Letter (2017). “Fifteen common stock investments at year end that had the largest market value.” “The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.” – Warren Buffett, Shareholder Letter (2017)

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Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor