Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 22, 2020

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? -- Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios
Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report -- 32. We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates--estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due to COVID-19--and corporate debt levels more elevated than ever before (note, a high net debt level should depress the P/E in enterprise valuation--US corporate debt has advanced 50% over the past decade, to $10 trillion), it is our contention that the current market reflects a “situation-equivalent” forward P/E (i.e. rightsizing for new net debt relative to the dot-com peak and adjusting for lower forward earnings expectations compared with current forecasts) perhaps greater than 24.4, which was recorded at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Though interest rates are lower than they were at the time of the dot-com crash, suggesting a modest reasonable bump to normalized forward P/E ratios of ~15 times to reflect “fair valuations,” we could seriously be in for fundamental-driven crash soon, as both the earnings multiple and earnings estimates contract aggressively. Hypothetically, a contraction to a 16x forward multiple on earnings estimates just 10% lower than currently forecast implies an S&P 500 of 2,566, or a swoon of about 20%-30% from current levels--and that would just get us down to 16x still-respectable forward numbers. How quantitative-driven price-agnostic trading may impact this scenario is not known either, and all of this could be setting up for a wild ride in the coming weeks and months. Fasten your seatbelts. We’ll have a few newsletter portfolio alerts coming Monday.

Feb 12, 2020

Philip Morris International Moving on Upwards
Image Shown: We increased the weighting in shares of Philip Morris International in the High Yield Newsletter portfolio back on November 18, 2019. Shares of PM have rallied aggressively off of their Fall 2019 lows through the middle of February 2020. We continue to like Philip Morris International in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and we remain pleased with our decision to increase the weighting of shares of PM in the portfolio. The company’s guidance for 2020 indicates further improvement in its free cash flow generation, potentially allowing for future per share dividend increases. On a final note, we want to stress that while Philip Morris International’s Dividend Cushion ratio sits at 0.8x, we adjusted its Dividend Safety rating up to GOOD given its ability to refinance its net debt load and the stability of its free cash flows (while Philip Morris International is a capital market dependent entity, the firm retains quality access to capital markets). When we update our tobacco models, there’s a good chance the company’s Dividend Cushion ratio will improve given its declining net debt load, rising free cash flows, and improving outlook.

Feb 10, 2020

Our Reports on Stocks in the Alcoholic Beverage Industry
Image Source: Jhong Dizon. We've reallocated our resources to cover more recession-resistant stocks.

Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Jan 4, 2020

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds
Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA. A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception.

Oct 28, 2019

High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Holdings AT&T and Philip Morris International Continue to Shine
Image Shown: AT&T continues to surge higher this year as shares of T converge towards their intrinsic value, a process supported by recent activist investor activity directed towards the company. If you may wish to add the High Yield Dividend Newsletter to your membership, please click here.We continue to like the resurgence in AT&T's shares of late. The company is rapidly converging to our $40 per share fair value estimate, and as the company divests assets and pursues deleveraging, its dividend growth profile is enhanced. Shares already yield an enticing 5.3%, too. Philip Morris has rallied considerably since it broke deal talks with Altria, and we believe the company has a relatively lower business risk profile than Altria. Both Philip Morris and Altria have Dividend Cushion ratios below the 1.25x threshold, or GOOD threshold, but given more positive overall trends at Philip Morris, we prefer the company over Altria at this time. Shares of Philip Morris yield a lofty 5.7% at the time of this writing.

Oct 18, 2019

Philip Morris International: Free Cash Flow King With Upside Potential
Image Shown: Philip Morris International's Marlboro cigarette brand remains very popular worldwide. Pricing power is essential to offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales volumes as the company positions itself for alternative tobacco products to become a larger part of its revenue streams. Image Source: Philip Morris International – Third quarter 2019 earnings presentation. We continue to like Philip Morris International as a quality high-yield play with good dividend coverage in a low interest rate environment. Strong pricing power enables the firm to offset sales declines of its traditional cigarette volumes as the company waits for its alternative smoking offerings (like IQOS) to represent a bigger chunk of company-wide sales. Please note that foreign currency headwinds remain significant, but manageable. As of this writing, Philip Morris International yields 5.8%.

Oct 12, 2019

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA
Catch up with Valuentum's President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles.

Aug 22, 2019

What’s on the Valuentum Team’s Mind?
Let’s get the Valuentum team’s thoughts on recent developments.

Aug 20, 2019

Owens-Illinois’ Debt Load Is Daunting, We Are Staying Away From This Value Trap
Image Source: Owens-Illinois Inc -- IR Presentation. Due to Owens-Illinois’ onerous leverage, guidance cut, and signs that the global economy is slowing down, we are staying far from the name. While shares of OI trade decently below the low end of our fair value estimate range we caution that the market is likely right on this one. Owens-Illinois is another example of a Value Trap.