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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Jul 15, 2019
Herbalife Sees a Slow Recovery Ahead
Image Source: Herbalife Nutrition Limited - 2018 10-K. Shares of HLF appear fairly valued as things stand today, with most participants looking to see if Herbalife’s rebound has legs or not. We aren’t interested in the name, but we don’t think the sky is falling either. Herbalife has had a wild ride over the past decade, but now that things are settling down, management sees a slow recovery ahead.
Jul 13, 2019
Broadcom Might Buy Symantec: Why Enterprise Valuation Matters
Our fair value estimate for shares of SYMC stands at $25, and that estimate hasn’t changed much over the past few years. Generally speaking, fair value estimates shouldn’t fluctuate much as the value of the discounted free-cash-flows-to-the-firm during the mid-cycle period and into perpetuity generally have the greatest influence on the fair value of the equity. Profit warnings are important, but more so as it relates to the trajectory of the company’s free cash flow generation. Transformative acquisitions, major structural shifts in the industry the company in question operates in, or other fundamental changes are all potential sources of meaningful changes in fair value.
Jul 12, 2019
3M Dividend Still Strong for Now in the Face of Legal Troubles
Image Source: 3M Company – IR Presentation. While 3M has good dividend coverage, it could be better. In the event PFAS-related lawsuits end up going against 3M, the company may have to consider suspending its share buyback program in order to maintain its current payout while covering legal settlements.
Jul 9, 2019
DXC Technology Looks Super Cheap
Image Shown: DXC Technology forecasts that its revenue in FY2020 will either be broadly flat or grow very modestly compared to its FY2019 performance. Image Source: DXC Technology – IR Presentation. While DXC Technology is experiencing top-line pressure due to weakness at its legacy businesses, its digital growth trajectory continues to look promising. Very strong free cash flows and a modest dividend policy leave plenty of room for upside as it relates to future dividend increases, particularly if share buybacks are scaled back.
Jul 8, 2019
We Just Increased Our Fair Value Estimate for United Rentals
Image Shown: We increased our fair value estimate for United Rentals in early July 2019.United Rentals is supported by strong free cash flow generation, a growing top line, expanding margins, its push into specialty rental markets, expected synergies, and ever-growing economies of scale.
Jul 2, 2019
Checking Out ARAMCO, Saudi Arabia’s Sleeping Giant
Image Source: Trending Topics 2019. Recent events have piqued our interest in the actions of Saudi Arabian Oil Company, better known as ARAMCO, the giant in charge of the Gulf nation’s hydrocarbon industry. Many view ARAMCO as the most valuable company in the world, but whether this is a USD$2 trillion company or not is in the eye of the beholder (many see that target as overly ambitious, as do we).
Jul 1, 2019
New Highs! The December Call Has Been Well-Rewarded
"The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own." - Warren Buffett (2018)
Jun 30, 2019
Chevron's Permian Opportunity, Outsize Dividend Yield
Image Source: Chevron Corporation -- IR Presentation. Large oil & gas companies like Chevron are often sought after for their nice yields and promising growth prospects; however, the space has been undergoing a medium/long-term bust since late-2014. Chevron earned a return on invested capital, excluding goodwill, that was lower than its estimated weighted-average cost of capital in 2018 (its ROIC ex-goodwill were negative in 2016 and 2017). We don’t expect that to change until fiscal 2020 at the earliest, under our baseline assumptions, but we do expect Chevron’s financial performance (and returns) to improve materially through the early-2020s. That isn’t enough to get use excited about Chevron’s shares and its nice yield, but we are monitoring the space at-large.
Jun 21, 2019
Renewing Our Interest In Boston Properties
Image Source: Boston Properties Inc – IR Presentation. Boston Properties focuses on developing, owning, and operating Class A (or top tier) corporate office properties in a select few markets. The REIT sports good payout coverage on FFO terms and raised its guidance for 2019 but watch out for its hefty leverage. During the Great Recession, Boston Properties was forced to cut its regular dividend as credit conditions tightened.
Jun 19, 2019
Facebook, Others Enter Crypto
Image: Facebook's new cryptocurrency. Source: Facebook.  We think Facebook’s new cryptocurrency Libra is a game changer. The company remains an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We're reiterating our fair value estimates for "Founding Members" of the Libra Association at this time.


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