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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Aug 29, 2019
Where Are the Safe Havens?
"We believe that staying diversified as in holding a broad swath of ideas as in either the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio or Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the equity portion of one’s allocation makes a lot of sense in any environment...High yield dividend investing may become more and more popular in coming years as rates across the globe approach 0%, and the amount of negative-yielding debt proliferates." -- Brian Nelson, CFA
Aug 27, 2019
Altria and Philip Morris to Tie the Knot?
Hitting the wires today is some news that has been rumored in the past, but seems to now be confirmed: Philip Morris and Altria are in merger talks.
Aug 26, 2019
The Valuentum Team Talks Powell Speech and Threat of Global Recession
Last week, China issued retaliatory tariffs on US goods, and Trump responded in kind, escalating trade tensions. Caught in the middle of this US-China trade war is the Fed, however. Let’s sit down with the Valuentum team and kick things off with our thoughts on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, Challenges for Monetary Policy issued August 23 in Jackson Hole, WY.
Aug 24, 2019
Not Worried About Cisco
Image Source: Fiscal fourth-quarter 2019 press release.We think the market is overreacting when it comes to Cisco’s outlook. Our fair value estimate remains in the mid-$50s, and Cisco’s Dividend Cushion ratio is still very healthy at ~2.8x.
Aug 23, 2019
Kinder Morgan Reaches a Deal to Divest Stake in Canadian Spin-Off
Image Shown: A look at Kinder Morgan's massive oil & gas infrastructure operations that crisscross North America. The natural gas midstream giant is selling its Canadian segment by divesting its 70% equity stake in Kinder Morgan Canada and the US portion of the Cochin pipeline to Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA). Image Source: Kinder Morgan Inc – IR Presentation. We like Kinder Morgan because it's one of the few midstream firms actually targeting free cash flow generation instead of focusing on distributable cash flow, which we see as a deeply flawed metric (not taking growth-related capital expenditures into account completely misses the picture in our view). The company’s natural gas assets in the US are irreplaceable and its pipelines transport ~40% of US natural gas according to Kinder Morgan.
Aug 22, 2019
What’s on the Valuentum Team’s Mind?
Let’s get the Valuentum team’s thoughts on recent developments.
Aug 21, 2019
Target Stuns, Shares Jump Higher
Image Shown: Shares of Target Corporation (TGT) leapt higher on August 21 on the back of its strong performance during the second quarter of FY2019. In particular, the retailer’s comparable same store sales growth was quite impressive given the hard comparison period, with e-commerce and same-day fulfillment leading the way.Strong performance out of Target and other major US retailers like Walmart indicate that while headwinds are forming, the US economy remains strong for now. We've raised our fair value estimate of Target.
Aug 20, 2019
Nvidia Beats Low Expectations and Shares are Rewarded Accordingly
Image Source: Nvidia Corporation - IR Presentation. Nvidia beat low expectations and its share price was rewarded accordingly, keeping in mind NVDA trades well off its 2018 highs. Our fair value estimate for NVDA stands at $184 per share, meaningfully above where shares are trading at, as of this writing. We are staying away from the name given risks associated with its purchase of Mellanox, weakness in data center demand in the face of trade war concerns and the synchronized slowdown in global economic activity, and in light of Nvidia’s low VBI rating. We think there are better investment opportunities out there, but we can respect that Nvidia is showing promising signs of improvement.
Aug 20, 2019
Owens-Illinois’ Debt Load Is Daunting, We Are Staying Away From This Value Trap
Image Source: Owens-Illinois Inc -- IR Presentation. Due to Owens-Illinois’ onerous leverage, guidance cut, and signs that the global economy is slowing down, we are staying far from the name. While shares of OI trade decently below the low end of our fair value estimate range we caution that the market is likely right on this one. Owens-Illinois is another example of a Value Trap.
Aug 18, 2019
Investors Aren’t Sold on Lear’s Ostensibly “Cheap” Valuation and Neither Are We
Image Shown: While Lear Corporation appears attractive at first glance, its technical performance tells a different story. The market is concerned that the global synchronized downturn that has emerged will get worse, which would weigh on Lear’s expected financial trajectory. Global automotive sales are already coming under pressure, and there’s not much Lear, as a leading auto parts supplier, can do about that. We think the market might be right on this one. While Lear appears cheap at first glance, we think this is another Value Trap.


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