Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 2, 2019

Zimmer Biomet’s Near-Term Outlook Is Less Rosy Than Management Would Have You Believe
Shares of Zimmer Biomet are trading on lofty expectations and investors may be in for a shock should Zimmer Biomet continue to underperform during the second half of 2019. Foreign currency headwinds continue to grow as seen through the strength of the US Dollar Index during the third quarter of 2019. We like Zimmer Biomet’s deleveraging activities but think its share price has gotten ahead of itself given these rising headwinds, lack of top line growth, and deteriorating net operating cash flows. We are staying away from Zimmer Biomet.

Sep 30, 2019

Economic Commentary: US-Listed Chinese Names, 60-40 Stock-Bond Allocation and More
Image shown for informational/illustration purposes only.  There’s an interesting saying that I came across recently...that hits at the most important component of any fiduciary approach: capital preservation. The saying was “Friends don’t let friends buy and hold.” We’ve always employed the Valuentum strategy, which we believe is much more promising that a traditional buy and hold strategy. – Brian Nelson, CFA

Sep 26, 2019

Hold ‘em or Fold ‘em?
Let’s talk Cardinal Health, Hanesbrands, Ford and Verint in this piece. Our best ideas are ideas in the newsletter portfolios. Unlike other widely followed strategies, the Valuentum strategy likes to capture the entire pricing cycle on an idea. We don’t “operate” in ideas only below the ‘undervalued’ line, but we like to let our winners run to when they are overvalued and showing signs of technical/momentum deterioration.

Sep 24, 2019

The Orthodontics Industry Is Getting Disrupted
Image Source: SmileDirectClub Inc - S-1 SEC Filing. SmileDirectClub, the teledentistry startup that makes 3D-printed clear aligners which are a cheaper alternative to braces (albeit with drawbacks when compared to the traditional braces route), went public this September at $23/share. While SmileDirectClub’s growth trajectory is quite intriguing, we prefer to wait until we get a better idea of the regulatory landscape the start-up faces and what its financial performance will look like now that it’s a public entity in the limelight. For Align, we are staying firmly away from the company as competitive pressures will continue to mount going forward. Neither company pays out a common dividend at this time.

Sep 23, 2019

Empirical Support for Porter’s “Gospel,” Plus Comments on the “Head Fake” Rotation
“Let’s be very clear: There is strong empirical quantitative evidence that the price-to-fair value equation (“factor”) is predictive of returns, which is what matters for value investors, and in Morningstar’s case, the moat assessment is just part of that overarching conclusion (fair value estimate). Researchers continue to attack the moat “factor” on grounds that don’t make any sense, in my view, and are cherry-picking parameters to assess value investing.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Sep 22, 2019

Jim Chanos Attacks DaVita and Throws Shade at Warren Buffett
DaVita is a midsized kidney dialysis company with strong free cash flows. However, the company is coming under fire from famed short seller Jim Chanos who recently threw shade at Warren Buffett. Image Source: DaVita Inc – IR Presentation.

Sep 16, 2019

Economic Roundtable: Quant Quake, “Quac-cidental Correlation,” and Economic Moats
Image Source: Anders Sandberg. Last week, the markets may have revealed that internals aren’t all that healthy. Major equity markets experienced a “rotation” that reminded many investors of the “quant quake” from August 2007. As Valuentum’s Brian Nelson wrote in Value Trap, “just a few bad days in the market caused a rapid unwinding of many quant long-short strategies (back then). Goldman’s chief financial officer said at the time that the firm was witnessing ‘25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.’” On the surface, markets last week seemed relatively calm, but as the episode in 2007 revealed the activity last week may just be the calm before the storm. Many are pointing to overcrowded trades in betting against certain factors, while others are saying that many were forced to deleverage. We’re not so sure, and we think it may be the opposite: after years of suffering from lagging “value” returns, we think several quant shops stepped in to take on leverage, betting on a return to “value.” Let's talk about last week's quant quake, spurious correlations (the “guac-cidental correlation, in fact), economic moats and much more.

Sep 15, 2019

Semiconductors Broadcom and Cree Push Forward in an Uncertain Environment
Image Source: Broadcom Inc -- IR Presentation. While the free cash flow outlooks for AVGO and CREE are relatively strong, weakening business confidence and investment around the world and mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and China (short-term tariff reprieves aside) create monstrous headwinds that the semiconductor industry can only do so much to mitigate. We don’t include many semiconductors in our portfolios given how notoriously difficult the space is to play. As things stand today, Intel is included in both our Dividend Growth Newsletter and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolios, and we continue to like INTC as our way to gain exposure to secular growth trends within the semiconductor space.

Sep 12, 2019

Merck Shows Impressive Margin Expansion
Image Source: Merck & Co Inc -- IR Presentation. Merck is improving its financials and we like that, but we still aren’t interested in shares after the run up during the past year and a half. The pharmaceutical giant’s net debt load is manageable given its strong free cash flows, but dividend growth will require share buybacks to be pared back first in order to make room for payout growth. It will take some time until we get an idea of how well Merck’s recent acquisitions pan out.

Sep 11, 2019

Why We Like BIN Holding Visa So Much
Recent volatility in Visa’s share price aside, the long-term trajectory of this company is sound and shares of Visa trade modestly below our fair value estimate at this time. We like the strong upward momentum in Visa’s share price year-to-date and expect that shares of V could test the upper bounds of our fair value range (as it stands today) over time.