Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 15, 2020

Disney’s Outlook is Improving
Image Source: Marc Levin and Valuentum added a solid line black border to the image. Shares of Walt Disney are trading near our fair value estimate of $111 per share as of this writing after recovering sharply from their March 2020 lows. Disney’s stock price came under intense pressure from the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, though the firm’s outlook has improved materially as various economies around the world have started opening back up. We include shares of DIS as a holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter at a modest weighting.

May 8, 2020

Disney’s Financials Will Eventually Rebound
Image Source: Marc Levin. On May 5, The Walt Disney Company reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended March 28, 2020) that beat consensus top-line estimates but missed consensus bottom-line estimates. The firm’s financial and operational performance has taken a hit from the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic; however, in our view the firm will bounce back once considerably a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available (which isn’t a certainty, but a lot of companies are actively pushing forward with human clinical trials as we speak including this firm). We continue to like Disney with a modest weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Apr 22, 2020

AT&T Has the Potential Resilience to Ride Out the Storm With Its Dividend Intact
Image Source: Image Source: AT&T Inc – First Quarter 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio holding AT&T reported first-quarter 2020 earnings on April 22 that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates; however, management noted right off the bat that the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic shaved $0.05 in EPS off of AT&T’s performance. The cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament and ongoing losses of its premium TV subscribers (a product of structural declines at DirecTV) weighed on AT&T’s results last quarter. Shares of T yield ~7.1% as of this writing. AT&T continued to generate meaningful free cash flows, keeping various headwinds in mind, as $8.9 billion in net operating cash flows fully covered $5.0 billion in capital expenditures (defined as ‘purchase of property and equipment’ plus ‘interest during construction’), allowing for $3.9 billion in free cash flow which fully covered $3.7 billion in dividend payouts last quarter.

Mar 5, 2020

AT&T Provides Another Key Update
Image Shown: The blue line represents the share price performance of AT&T Inc and the orange line represents the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Shares of T have outperformed the index on a year-to-date basis as of this writing. One of our favorite high yield ideas out there is AT&T Inc --- ~5.6% yield --- given its stellar free cash flow profile and ongoing corporate initiatives: serious debt reduction, share buybacks, upcoming launch of HBO Max, the rollout of 5G services across the US, cost structure improvements, and upside from AT&T’s public-private partnership FirstNet (billed as the first nationwide network in the US dedicated to entities/groups operating within the realm of public safety i.e. first responders like law enforcement, firefighters, and emergency medical services providers). On March 3, AT&T provided an update on some of its recent initiatives, news that has offered resiliency to shares.

Feb 20, 2020

SmileDirectClub Comes Under Fire
Image Shown: SmileDirectClub has come under tremendous regulatory fire of late, which has aggressively pressured shares of SDC. We covered SmileDirectClub back in September 2019 shortly after its IPO. Since going public at $23 per share (the unconventional orthodontics company’s shares fell aggressively during their first day of trading), shares of SDC have tanked with an eye towards growing regulatory concerns and related obstacles. We don’t think catching a falling knife is a wise idea and see SmileDirectClub’s problems continuing for some time. SmileDirectClub is standing its ground and has been highlighting the many customers it has served, at a much cheaper cost than traditional orthodontist offerings, but the negative press alone will likely make it much tougher to grow going on a fundamental basis given how this negatively impacts its marketing and advertising campaigns. Should SmileDirectClub lose its ability to operate in California, that would have a profound impact on its trajectory.

Feb 10, 2020

Disney Reports Earnings and Provides an Update on the Novel Coronavirus Epidemic
Image Shown: Walt Disney Company recently reported earnings and provided an update as to what investors should expect going forward given the ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic in China. On February 4, Walt Disney reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2020 (period ended December 28, 2019). While Disney beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, shares sold off modestly the next trading day over fears concerning the ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic (abbreviated as ‘2019-nCoV’) in China, and how that would impact its financial performance going forward. On January 13, 2020, we added shares of DIS to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio with a modest weighting given that shares were trading close to our fair value estimate at the time. However, we view Disney’s free cash flow growth outlook as very promising, which could see shares of DIS approach the high end of our fair value estimate range which sits at $168 per share. Additionally, we like its dividend coverage as its Dividend Cushion ratio sits at 3.1x, which supports a nice dividend growth trajectory as well. Shares of DIS yield ~1.2% as of this writing.

Jan 30, 2020

AT&T Continues to Follow Through With Its Mission
Image Source: AT&T Inc – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Earnings Presentation. One of our holdings in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, AT&T, reported full-year and fourth quarter results for 2019 on January 29. Shares of T sold off modestly on the mixed report (adjusted non-GAAP EPS beat consensus estimates but revenues fell short of expectations), and now shares of T yield ~5.6% as of this writing. We continue to like what we see in AT&T as management is delivering on major value creating initiatives: deleveraging, margin expansion, and ultimately free cash flow growth. More information on the High Yield Dividend Newsletter >>

Jan 24, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 24
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Jan 14, 2020

Disney Joins the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company have performed well over the past year, and we see room for additional upside. Media and entertainment giant The Walt Disney Company was just added to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Though the firm does not register the typically high Valuentum Buying Index rating that we would prefer with new additions (sometimes we have to relax criteria to achieve newsletter portfolio goals), we like Disney’s business model and its future free cash flows are underpinned by: a top quality intellectual property (‘IP’) portfolio that’s practically impossible to replace, the immense profitability of its theme parks (which benefit from its strong and ever-growing IP portfolio i.e. adding Star Wars-themed rides), its strength in streaming (Disney owns ~67% of Hulu and Disney+ has reportedly been a big hit initially), its position in live sports (one of the few reasons why households keep cable, or choose higher priced streaming packages) is top notch (ESPN, which Disney owns ~80% of, now has ESPN+ to offer incremental upside), and the company should be able to wring out synergies after buying 21st Century Fox (the deal closed in March 2019) through a ~$71 billion cash-and-stock deal.

Dec 27, 2019

Streaming Wars Roundup
Image Shown: Shares of Netflix Inc came under pressure around the same time that competition in the streaming video space really started to heat up. Those competitive headwinds are only going to build going forward. This is often referred to the start of the “streaming wars” which is what we’ll cover in this article.With so many competitors now entering the streaming space, it will likely become hard for companies to push through price increases unless they are truly producing top tier content. That will make covering enormous content creation liabilities a difficult but not impossible task. Our favorite companies in this space remain Apple and AT&T. Differentiation is possible in this industry but having a strong free cash flow profile (both Apple and AT&T’s free cash flows are simply enormous) is essential to having a chance.