Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 1, 2022

Nelson: Executing the Valuentum Strategy
Video: Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why he's turned bearish on the equity markets after a great bull run. In this 8-minute video, learn about the fantastic returns of the stock market the past three years, and how the Valuentum way has cushioned the market decline in 2022. Watch now to learn about the textbook execution of the Valuentum strategy and more!

Sep 1, 2022

Update on Newsletter Portfolio Idea Apple
Image Shown: Shares of Apple Inc have rebounded strongly from their recent lows as of late August 2022. Apple reported third quarter results for fiscal 2022 (period ended June 25, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Management also noted during Apple’s latest earnings update that supply chain constraints were beginning to ease a bit and that Apple’s near-term growth outlook was improving. We continue to like Apple as an idea in the newsletter portfolios. Shares of AAPL yield ~0.6% as of this writing, and there is an enormous amount of room for Apple to aggressively grow its per-share payout going forward given its financial strength.

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Jul 11, 2022

Valuentum's Unmatched Product Suite
We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value--net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects.

Jul 4, 2022

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds
"Though I have been clearly wrong on my near-term thesis for inflation-driven earnings expansion, we still did great sorting through investment idea considerations. Through late June, for example, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated 4-5 percentage points of alpha relative to the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY. The simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is down only modestly this year, also performing better than traditional benchmarks. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter is generating “alpha” against comparable benchmarks, and the Exclusive publication continues to deliver, with both capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations generating fantastic success rates. ESG and options-idea generation have also been great. With all this being said, in the long run, I believe nominal earnings will expand rapidly from 2021 levels, which is why I remain bullish on stocks. I believe markets tend to overestimate earnings in the near term and underestimate them in the long run. The intelligent investor knows, too, that the most money is made during recessions and bear markets, where steady reinvestment and dollar cost averaging help to better position portfolios for higher returns over the longer run. The newsletter portfolios are well-positioned for continued “outperformance,” in our view, and while we may make a few tweaks to them, we’re not making any material changes at this time."

Jun 10, 2022

Taiwan Semi Firing on All Cylinders
Image Source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. We are huge fans of Taiwan Semi which offers investors a combination of capital appreciation and income growth upside. Shares of TSM yield ~2.1% as of this writing. Taiwan Semi is included as an idea in our ESG Newsletter portfoliio. The firm is incredibly shareholder friendly with good governance practices, focuses on sustainable manufacturing practices where feasible (placing a great emphasis on effective resource management, limiting pollution, and utilizing green energy), and has a management team that comes from diverse backgrounds (keeping in mind Taiwan Semi is headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan).

May 27, 2022

Broadcom Buying VMware as “Empire Building” Streak Continues
Image Shown: Broadcom Inc is acquiring VMware Inc and the deal will significantly increase its enterprise software business. Image Source: Broadcom Inc and VMware Inc - May 2022 IR Presentation. Continuing with its acquisitive streak, the semiconductor and enterprise software giant Broadcom Inc announced on May 26 that it would acquire hybrid cloud services provider VMware Inc through a cash-and-stock deal that values VMware at ~$61 billion. Additionally, Broadcom will assume ~$8 billion in net debt from VMware. This follows in the footsteps of Broadcom’s $18.9 billion deal to acquire CA Technologies in 2018 and its $10.7 billion deal to acquire the enterprise security business of then-Symantec, now NortonLifeLock Inc, in 2019. Under the leadership of Hock Tan, Broadcom’s CEO since 2006, the company has built itself into a tech powerhouse through a series of acquisitions. In 2018, Broadcom formally ended its attempt to acquire Qualcomm Inc in the face of antitrust concerns and adjusted its strategy accordingly. By growing its enterprise software business, namely through acquisitions, Broadcom was largely able to avoid antitrust concerns. However, it remains to be seen if regulators will give their blessing to this pending acquisition.

Apr 27, 2022

Microsoft Soars, Strong Revenue Growth Continues Unabated
Image Shown: Microsoft Corporation put up a solid fiscal third quarter earnings report and we continue to be big fans of the name. Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – Power Point Earnings Presentation Covering the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022. On April 26, Microsoft Corp reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended March 31, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of MSFT jumped higher by ~4%-5% in afterhours trading on April 26 as investors cheered on the good news and its promising near term outlook. Microsoft’s cloud-oriented products and services were a bright spot in the fiscal third quarter and underpinned its impressive pricing power. The firm was able to stay ahead of inflationary pressures and maintain its strong margins while growing its revenues. We include shares of MSFT as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Our fair value estimate for Microsoft sits at $332 per share, well above where Microsoft is trading at as of this writing, indicating that the company has substantial capital appreciation upside. Additionally, we view Microsoft’s dividend growth trajectory quite favorably due to its rock-solid financial position, bright longer-term growth outlook that is underpinned by secular tailwinds and recent acquisition activity, its pricing power, fortress-like balance sheet, and ability to generate sizable free cash flows in almost any operating environment. Shares of MSFT yield ~0.9% as of this writing.

Apr 22, 2022

ESG Newsletter Portfolio Idea ASML Holding May Further Boost Longer Term Guidance
Image Shown: How ASML Holding Inc’s photolithography systems are used to produce semiconductor components, including the most cutting edge “chips” along with more mature semiconductor components. Image Source: ASML Holding Inc – Fiscal 2021 Annual Report. The maker of advanced photolithography systems that are used to produce the most cutting edge semiconductor components or “chips” is the Dutch firm ASML Holding NV. It has a virtual monopoly at the high-end of this market due to its technological prowess in this space and focus on R&D. The firm also produces photolithography systems to make more mature chips and offers services that are primarily geared towards its installed systems base. ASML Holding reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended April 3, 2022) on April 20 that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates and its order backlog remains robust.